This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
A Rather Strange Occurrence Happening in Chicago
One of the more surprising facts I happened to notice on the MLB standings is that the Chicago Cubs (23-30) have the second-worst win percentage in the National League. Only the St. Louis Cardinals (24-32) have a lower win percentage in the NL. Despite outscoring their opponents by 5 runs this season, the Cubs find themselves 5 games under 0.500 on the season.
There have been 15 teams that had outscored their opponents and were at least eight games under 0.500 through games played by May 31 since 2003. The Houston Astros were eight games under 0.500 (24-32) but had outscored their opponents by 27 runs through the end of May of the 2014 season. From that point on, the Astros went 52-60, but averaged 133 wagers and earned a modest 6% ROI.
Through games played by April 30, the Cubs were 14-13 and outscoring their opponents by 1.59 runs per game (RPG) on the season. The month of May has been a disaster for the Cubs as they are just 9-17 and getting outscored by an average of 1.46 (RPG) entering the May 30 action. Their starting pitcher ERA was a solid 2.93 through April 30, but now they have posted a decent 3.76 ERA in May games. It has been the offense that has gone ice cold for the Cubs as they averaged 5.41 RPF through April 30, but for May, they have scored an anemic 3.74 RPG.
Through April 30, the Cubs averaged 7.00 RPG in their wins while scoring just 2.67 RPG in their losses. Then in May, they averaged 2.64 RPG in their losses while averaging 6.57 RPG in their wins. So, the Cubs' offense has been largely inconsistent from day to day, but there is a way to take advantage of teams like the Cubs heading into June.
A Situational MLB Betting System
The following situational betting system exploits these opportunities and has earned an 18-11 record using the –1.5 run line since 2007. The requirements are to bet on a team in a divisional matchup from games 51 through games 81 (mid-point of the 162-game season) that averaged 5.25 or more RPG through April 30 and then regressed significantly scoring an average of 3.80 or fewer RPG in May. So, I will keep track of this system and identify when the Cubs are playing a divisional foe and favored on the money line and then bet the Cubs using the –1.5 run line until we reach game number 81 on their schedule.
The Cubs will be hosting their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game series from June 13-15 and then will be on the road to take on the Pirates from June 19-21 followed by a two-game series at the St. Louis Cardinals, who have the worst record in the NL currently.
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Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Best Bets for Wednesday
The Texas Rangers (34-19) lead the AL West division and have won eight of their past 10 games heading into Tuesday's action. The Tigers (25-27) have climbed back into the race for the AL Central lead trailing the Minnesota Twins by just two games entering Tuesday's action. So, this is the final game of a three-game series hosting the Rangers and I like this betting opportunity regardless of the result of Tuesday's game.
A Dog Betting Situational SuperSystem
The following situational betting system has earned a solid 72-47 record for 61% winning tickets averaging a +111 wager and making the $100 per game bettor a profit of $4200 over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any home team that is struggling at the plate batting 0.240 or lower spanning their last 10 games and is starting a pitcher that has been roughed up allowing 5 or more runs in each of his last two starts. If our team is priced as a home dog, the record improves to 36-30 for 55%, but averaged a +150 wager and earned a highly profitable 34% ROI spanning the past five seasons. I fully expect the betting line to price the Tigers as a +130 or higher home dog.
The Tigers will have left-hander Joey Wentz on the hill making his 11th start of the season. He is just 1-5 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.664 WHIP on the season. In his last start, he allowed five earned runs on six hits in a 12-3 loss to Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox, and in the start prior to that he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits in a 6-4 road loss to Sonny Gray of the Washington Nationals. The Tiger's bullpen has been solid at home sporting a 3.84 ERA and 1.18 WHIP including 28 walks and 82 strikeouts spanning 98 1/3 innings of work. So, if Wentz struggles again, the bullpen is expected to keep the game close.
What About Live Betting the Total in this Game?
If you like betting the Over in this game on Wednesday, then you are going to enjoy the following situational betting system that has earned a 20-12-3 record good for 63% winning bets. It is the same situational betting system as detailed above except that our team must be facing a non-divisional foe. The first-inning score record is 17-18 in that there was no score in the first inning.
So, consider waiting to bet the Over allowing for the potential scoreless inning, and then jump on a lower-priced total.
