This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Division Series Picks: Expert MLB Bets for Saturday, October 15
RotoWire.com's Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props to target today.
Last article: 1-3 (-2.30 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 100-102-4 (-13.12 RW Bucks)
We're set for a four-game, all-day Division Series slate Saturday, and I'll aim to identify some top wagers to consider for each contest.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Charlie Morton has a 7-4 record, 3.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 career postseason appearances (16 starts), but his track record both against the Phillies and on the road this season gives reason to pause. Morton pitched to a 5.47 ERA in five starts against Philly and was also bounced around for a 5.72 ERA and 1.7 HR/9 in 83.1 away innings.
On the other side, the Phillies are sending out Noah Syndergaard as the first pitcher in what may become a bullpen game. He recorded a 4.12 ERA and a very low 13.7 percent strikeout rate after joining Philadelphia at the deadline. One pitcher who may be asked to handle multiple innings behind him is Bailey Falter, who had plenty of troubles against the Braves, pitching to 7.56 ERA across 8.1 innings.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Phillies
- Braves-Phillies Over 4.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
The Astros' Lance McCullers sports a 2-2 record, 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 57.1 career postseason frames, and he's held current Mariners bats to a .229 average and .312 slugging percentage in 110 career encounters. He also posted an impressive 10.7 K/9 across 17.2 road innings in the regular season.
George Kirby will be making his first postseason start. He rang up seven Ks over just four innings against the Astros in his one encounter with them this season. He also posted an impressive 3.28 ERA and 9.7 K/9 across 71.1 innings at home, and Houston actually only posted a .282 wOBA, .232 average and .290 OBP against righties on the road in the second half of the season.
MLB Best Bets for Astros at Mariners
- Astros-Mariners Under 3.5 runs - 1st 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
The Yankees' Luis Severino owns a 1-3 record, 5.23 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 in 32.2 career playoff innings, but he entered this postseason with some momentum in the form of a 2-0 record, 1.69 ERA and 9.6 K/9 in his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Triston McKenzie offset a middling 11-11 record with a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. He completely flummoxed the Yankees in his one start against them, throwing seven innings of one-hit ball that also included seven Ks at Progressive Field. He was excellent at home overall, recording a 5-3 record, 2.77 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 81.1 innings.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Guardians
- Yankees-Guardians Under 7 runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson's stellar season included new career-best marks of 15 wins, a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He also pitched to a 2-0 record and 1.88 ERA in 24 innings across four starts against the Padres. Anderson was at his best keeping the ball in the park on the road, where he posted an 0.6 HR/9 in 91 frames. Additionally, the Friars furnished just a .298 wOBA and middling .145 ISO against lefties at home in the second half.
Musgrove was excellent in his wild-card start against the Mets, posting a seven-inning, one-hit shutout. He also produced a solid 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings across three starts against the Dodgers this season, but current L.A. bats still own a collective .260 average and OPS of nearly .800 against Musgrove in 184 career encounters.
The Dodgers will be highly motivated to avoid a 3-1 series deficit in this spot and will face a pitcher they've had success against, making a moneyline bet at nice price a viable way to go.
MLB Best Bets for Dodgers at Padres
- Dodgers moneyline (+155)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Braves-Phillies Over 4.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Astros-Mariners Under 3.5 runs - 1st 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Yankees-Guardians Under 7 runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers moneyline (+155)
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