Saturday's main slate on FanDuel is an early and compact one with all seven games starting between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. It's top heavy on the mound with four arms priced in five-figures though just two more in the 9k tier.
Weather is a real threat to shorten the slate with rain in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Atlanta all potential postponements. Somewhat miraculously, they got games in in Baltimore and Atlanta last night, so we'll assume they'll play and not treat this as a four-game slate, but it's not going to be easy to put players in these games into your builds, particularly starting pitchers if there's a lengthy delay. The Phillies (-198) and Braves (-188) are the slate's biggest favorites. Offense will be at a premium, as the highest run total is 8.5.
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Pitching
George Kirby, SEA at KC ($10,100): While there's certainly no discount on Kirby, coming off a six run, two homer outing, he's where my eyes go immediately in the top tier after factoring weather into the equation. Simply, I'm not willing to risk it with Zack Wheeler and Taj Bradley is too expensive in his first start off IL, so we're left with Kirby and Max Meyer, who is certainly in play, too. The Royals fan at a 22.2 percent clip off righties while having a below average 94 wRC+.
Framber Valdez, DET at BAL ($8,800): Valdez has been incredibly inconsistent, but he has posted 39 or more fantasy points in three of his last six. Baltimore fans at a massive 25.4 percent against lefties with a weak 93 wRC+ but are curiously slight favorites here. They will take walks (10.4 percent), which has been Valdez' undoing, and the rain is a major concern. But Valdez has a nice ceiling for this price if he's on.
Adrian Houser, SF vs. CWS ($7,600): Houser quietly has strung together three straight solid outings, holding the A's, Dodgers and Padres to a combined four runs across 17.2 innings. He's fanned just 10 across that stretch and is sitting with a weak 4.9 K/9, so the upside has to come from limited damage in bulk innings despite the White Sox' 24.4 percent K rate. It looks like there will be some outbound winds, but Houser's 46.6 percent ground ball rate should help negate that. There's obvious risk with any arm at this low price, but the Giants are slight favorites, so a win could be in the cards.
Top Targets
I'm contradicting myself, but if you want to fade Houser/target against him, no one will fault you. He's allowing a .580 wOBA and 1.395 OPS to lefties at home in a small sample (39 batters faced). Munetaka Murakami ($4,000) is hitting .381 across his last six but hasn't homered in his last five. He seems overdue.
Slade Cecconi has been hit hard on the road, sitting with a 5.79 ERA and 4.85 xFIP. Kyle Schwarber ($4,400) or Bryce Harper ($3,700) make the most sense, but he's been curiously more vulnerable to right-handed bats, potentially making Trea Turner ($3,300) the better play.
Bargain Bats
Atlanta has the slate's highest run total, yet still offers a plethora of favorably priced bats. Jake Irvin has been better on the road and doesn't have massively targetable splits, however, so when paired with rain, stacking isn't my preference. Austin Riley ($3,100) had three hits last night and has two homers in his last seven. Michael Harris ($3,000) has a four-game hitting streak, collecting seven hits and three homers in that stretch. Dominic Smith ($2,700) is hitting .364 across his last 12. Pick your poison.
Brayan Bello is expected to have bulk relief duties following an opener, and he's been smashed by lefties, allowing a .441 wOBA and 1.023 OPS. The problem is the Twins don't have (m)any to choose from. Josh Bell ($2,800) is hitting .421 with two homers in his last five and is essentially the only option.
Taylor Ward ($3,200) has owned Valdez in a large enough sample size, going 15-for-31 (.484), but is hitting just .200 in his last six.
Stack to Consider
Giants vs. Bryan Hudson/Erick Fedde (White Sox): Casey Schmitt ($3,600), Matt Chapman ($2,700), Willy Adames ($2,700)
This slate already has ample ambiguity due to the weather, so why not add more here! The White Sox haven't confirmed Fedde will take bulk innings after Hudson opens, but that's what the schedule suggests. And he's been crushed by righties this season, allowing a .414 wOBA and .958 OPS, numbers that rise to .490/1.165 on the road. Schmitt is surging, which has led to an uncomfortable price point, but he's hitting .346 with three homers in his last six. Chapman and Adames are showing signs of life and remain favorably priced. Chapman's power remains nonexistent, but he's hitting .304 with four doubles in his last six. Adames is at .304 with two homers in his last six. Fedde has a 44.9 percent fly ball rate, which seems ominous with outbound winds.
