This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel is bringing us an 11-game main slate Friday evening. It's top heavy on the pitching front. Only three arms are priced in five-figures, two of which sit at 11k or greater. Only three more are in the $9,000 range, one of which (Shane Bieber) is returning from the 60-day IL and will be limited in how much he can throw.
Curiously, we don't have any double-digit run totals, with only Braves-Nationals coming in at a slate-high 9.5. Perhaps we can find some value with pitching and build a well rounded lineup here. That game also comes with some weather concerns as a tropical system is moving up the east coast. Winds seem to be blowing in at most parks too, potentially a reason for these low run total expectations.
Pitching
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. WSH ($10,300): This game has major weather concerns, so you're going to have to be willing and able to pivot around lineup lock time. But from a matchup standpoint, it's a smash spot for all things Atlanta. Morton hasn't faced the Nationals this season, but has dominated the lineup overall, allowing a .169 BA and .551 OPS, striking out 24 of the 64 batters he's faced, a massive 37.5 percent rate. He wasn't sharp in his last outing, and will be in store for a rebound, likely gets solid run support and a fair shot at a win. So long as there aren't any delays or cancellation. And he's at nice discount from the other two top arms.
Chris Sale: BOS vs. CWS ($9,200): Sale looks priced favorably for this matchup and carries big upside. He's off a dominant outing against Toronto, fanning 10 across six innings, earning his first quality start since May. The White Sox have packed it in, and while they have a few individual bats that fair well off lefties, overall the lineup strikes out at a 24.9 percent clip while carrying a 90 wRC+ into Friday. Sale's numbers against the current lineup are solid (.143 BA, .351 OPS), but they're a tad skewed as 41 of the 56 at bats have come from two hitters. Still, it's a good spot for him to potentially dominate.
Sawyer Gipson-Long, DET at OAK ($8,300): Options really fall off after Gipson-Long, so this represents as low as I'm willing to go Friday. Gipson-Long has been nothing short of brilliant in his two starts, allowing three runs and six hits across 10 innings, fanning 16. He had a 13.0 K/9 rate at Triple-A prior to promotion, so he should have some stability if he gives up some hits. The matchup is obvious and has been all season; Oakland has a 25.1 percent K rate off righties and only an 88 wRC+.
Top Targets
Atlanta's lineup has a ton of BvP success off Patrick Corbin, and if you've not paying a premium for pitchng, they're somewhat stackable if you don't go for the top tier priced bats. But with the rain concerns, I'd rather not have to pivot off of multiple pieces. Ozzie Albies ($3,800) looks like a great option for price, form and matchup. We know he's a beast from the right side, he's 13-for-30 (.433) with three homers and a 1.352 OPS off Corbin, and is locked in, riding an eight-game hitting streak where he's collected 16 hits and three bombs.
Mookie Betts ($4,500) isn't swinging it well this month, with just one homer and three multi-hit games and eight 0-fors, but he's also got a .457 wOBA, 194 wRC+ and .389 ISO off lefties on the year, and is 10-for-26 (.385) with three homers and a 1.410 OPS off Giants' starter Sean Manaea.
Bargain Bats
There are a lot of favorable spots for bats Friday, making many plays obvious. We're going to be forced to be different in GPPs, and hopefully Tiger bats can be that answer. I can't recommend stacking them, but they offer some nice options against Ken Waldichuk, who's been more vulnerable to lefties this season. If we trust that, Kerry Carpenter ($3,000) is in play, having multiple hits in three of four and at least one in eight of 11. Jake Rogers ($3,000) has a .344 ISO off lefties to date and is a dart throw power option. Winds will reportedly be blowing out here. Finally, Spencer Torkelson ($3,200) and his .302 ISO make for another power option.
I have great interest in the top bats from Arizona's lineup off Luke Weaver, but we can't pay for everyone. Christian Walker ($3,200) has been in a funk for most of September, and hasn't homered since September 3. But he does have multiple hits in two of his last four, and that funk has his price low enough to feel good about. His .344 wOBA off righties isn't elite, but a .202 ISO offers hope.
Staying in the same game, D'Backs starter Brandon Pfaadt is allowing a .388 wOBA and .938 OPS to lefties on the road, something the Yankees don't have much of. Estevan Florial ($2,500) Jake Bauers ($2,500) or Austin Wells ($2,400) can be lineup fillers for cheap with a chance to click.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Dakota Hudson: Juan Soto ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300), Jurickson Profar ($2,800)
Hudson has been serviceable at home, but a gas can on the mound on the road, allowing a 7.62 ERA and 7.03 FIP. Lefties have been particularly successful against him, earning a .472 wOBA and 1.103 OPS. That alone makes Soto an appealing singular play. Pair it with a team-best .405 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .268 ISO, and his current form, and it's a clear smash spot. We're going to have to see how the Padres lineup to get other options around him, and there aren't a ton of lefties in this lineup to target. Profar lands here based on price and that he'll swing from the left side, and he brings a .402 wOBA and 160 wRC+ off righties into Friday. We're just uncertain if he'll hit near Soto to make this a traditional stack. Bogaerts should, likely either leadoff or fifth, and his .349 wOBA is the best the Padres have to offer from the right side. It's such a clear spot for Soto, I'd have a hard time fading him, but you could get creative and target the bottom of this order with Profar, Trent Grisham ($2,700) and Ji Man Choi ($2,400) if buying the left-handed splits against Hudson.
Rangers vs. Bryce Miller: Corey Seager ($4,300), Jonah Heim ($3,000), Evan Carter ($3,000)
Miller is allowing a .375 wOBA to lefties on the road against .262 to righties, so we're not going traditional heart of the order here, but rather just hot left-hand swinging bats throughout the Rangers lineup. Seager actually isn't hot with just two hits in his last 22 at bats, so perhaps that brings low usage. He has a robust .443 wOBA, 186 wRC+ and .342 ISO off righties on the year and has homered in his only plate appearance off Miller. Heim has five RBI in his last two games and two homers over his last five. Carter's price continues to climb, but the rookie is hot and has a .461 wOBA and 198 wRC+ in limited MLB exposure. Texas got Miller for seven runs and eight hits over just 2.1 innings earlier in the year. This is a lineup I don't think will be as popular as many others, creating a nice opportunity.
