This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Payne's Picks:
Last Article: 3-0!
Year To Date: 8-7
Happy Memorial Day! Enjoy a possible BBQ, baseballI and maybe some bee...refreshing beverages. I went from an 0-3 week two weeks ago to 3-0 last week, which is a rarity but let's see if we can keep building on that.
There are games throughout the day and at least one new game starts every two hours all day for what should be around over 11 hours of baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
*As always shop around Home Run lines. Some of these had as big of a difference as +100 on the different sites.
Guess where the wind will be blowing out today? Guess what game has the highest over/under total? I like taking all of these picks at roughly even amounts (you can going a little less on the longer odds) which should amount to around even money. However, if more than one hits it offers the potential for a nice payday and those types of games aren't uncommon on wind days like these (82 degrees, 16 mph out, 28 mph gusts expected). I also like taking players from both teams; that way you don't have juice going for half the game. It's also good to get on the action from the start, be mindful there's a doubleheader there so make sure to take the early game.
MLB Best Bet for Brewers-Cubs
To Hit A Home Run: Willson Contreras +330, Patrick Wisdom +370, Christian Yelich +440, Rowdy Tellez +420
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Chisholm returned to the lineup Sunday and assumed his usual role as leadoff hitter. While he went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts, he was facing Max Fried in Atlanta where Fried had an ERA under three last season. Today will be a much better matchup for Chisholm as he heads to Coors to face off against Ryan Feltner. Feltner is a rookie who's had a mix bag of results in two starts with an ERA over five but 14 strikeouts in only 10 innings. Chisholm has 21 runs in just 24 innings so I don't mind laying the -200 juice here. Chisholm is +340 to score two runs and if this hits I'll take credit for only half a win if this hits due to the juice.
MLB Best Bet for Rockies-Marlins
Jazz Chisholm OVER 0.5 Runs -200
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
You can find this pick at OVER 5 for (+100) but I'd rather lay the extra juice. I thought about going with the Guardians to win (-160) but Zach Plesac in't a high strikeout guy (he's over/under 3.5 in this one). So ultimately I decided going with this wager and this is totally about fading Jonathan Heasley. He comes into the game with a 4.73 ERA in three starts but his FIP - 7.19 shows he been extremely lucky his ERA is that low. He's walking almost a batter per inning and while these numbers are in a small sample, he's not some elite prospect expected to turn things around immediately. Take advantage before the likely bullpen promotion hits.
MLB Best Bet for Guardians-Royals
Cleveland Guardians OVER 4.5 Runs (-140)
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
There are a lot of interesting stats to look at here and other information to digest. Spencer Strider is making his first MLB start and has been stellar in the bullpen with outstanding numbers across the board. However, he doesn't figure to pitch too deep into this game and pitching as a starter rather than a reliever are two very different tasks. Zac Gallen is coming off his worst start of the season but had allowed no more than two runs in any of his other seven starts to the season (1.14 ERA supported by a 0.71 WHIP). The Braves strikeout at the highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching (26.8 percent) so I don't mind dabbling in Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (-155). Finally, the weirdest stat I found was that the Braves' regular starters have gone 0-for-16 in 18 plate appearances (two walks) against Gallen.
MLB Best Bet for Diamondbacks-Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks +100
Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available player props, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
