Collette Calls: What Is Left in the Tank?

We are now 59.4 percent of the way through the regular baseball season the morning after Jordan Walker did not get the memo and upset homecrowd favorite Kyle Schwarber in the home run derby. I have belabored the point a few times in recent installments that treating the break as the mid-way point is a misnomer, because those who do overlook nearly 10 percent of the baseball season. I like to use this small break in the action to look in on pitchers, especially those whose workload has seen a significant increase from the previous season.

We know that there is no exact science in what leads to pitching injuries, it does not mean that teams will not adhere to anything which they believe reduces the chances of injury. Some will joke that simply throwing a baseball is a leading indicator to injury, and quite frankly, they are not far off base. Others will point to the velocity chasers and pitching at maximum effort, and that argument certainly has its merits. One easy way many teams try to mitigate injuries is by looking to control the increase in year-over-year workloads for pitchers. Some look to control workloads by efforting to keep year-over-year increases around 25 to 30 percent, but situations and circumstances do not always make that easy. Several young pitchers are on contending teams, especially with a wide-open American League, and teams must adjust utilization plans with October considerations in mind. 

An excellent recent example would be Connelly Early, who was diagnosed with posterior inflammation in his pitching elbow. Early worked a combined 124 innings in 2025 between two stops in the minors while finishing the year in the majors. He was up to 91.2 innings in 2026 before leaving the mound with his injury and it is uncertain we see him again this year. The workload increase was not yet present and Early was tracking well within that aforementioned 25-30 percent year-over-year increase, yet he was sniped from the Boston and fantasy rosters like an RKO out of nowhere.

You may see posts like this online and believe all is well:

That season, 58.6 percent of the schedule was completed before the break, so things were only slightly behind where we stand in 2026. Sandy Alcantara and Cristopher Sanchez stand alone as the only two pitchers to work at least 120 innings this season, while just 48 pitchers have worked at least 100 innings. In short, things look fine in the aggregate, but at the granular level, there are some stories of concern about what happens with some arms as the season progresses. There are some pitchers who need to be ready for October, some others pitching for non-contenders who could see their September efforts curtailed, and even some more who are heading into free agency who will do all they can to position themselves for their next contract. Let's dig into some of these examples.

Kyle Bradish

Bradish has really hit his stride recently, going 3-2 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.88 ERA over his last six starts, including flirting with a no-hitter. It is a tremendous story after he worked a total of 72.1 innings over the previous two seasons while recovering from injury. Baltimore has Bradish under contract until the end of the 2028 season, and they are currently in fourth place in their division with a 22 percent chance of making the playoffs per FanGraphs projections thanks to the overall situation in the American League. The longer Baltimore remains in contention, the more likely Bradish continues to pitch, but should the club fail to take the leap forward similar to what Boston has done this month, it would not surprise me to see Bradish's workload curtailed in September. The new roster rules prohibit increasing the roster as much as previous seasons, so Bradish will likely continue to make starts, but just may not work as deeply into them. 

Ryan Weathers

Weathers should eclipse 100 innings in his next outing. Weathers last worked that much in a season back in 2022 when he was in the San Diego organization pitching in El Paso to the tune of a 6.73 ERA. He is on pace for 150 or more regular season innings and is going to pitch, in some capacity, in the postseason as long as he is healthy. It appeared recently as if the workload was catching up with him after terrible outings against Detroit and Minnesota, but then Weathers bounced back by cooling off a red-hot Washington offense in his final outing before the break. This would be a case where the Yankees may pull Weathers a bit earlier in starts as the summer wears on, especially since they have the best bullpen in baseball by ERA. Weathers has but one win since May 2, and that could continue if Aaron Boone decides to start managing Weathers with a deep October run in mind. 

Chase Burns

This one concerns me after the break, especially with Cincinnati bringing up the rear in the NL Central standings along with just a one percent chance of making the playoffs. There is little doubt Burns is going to see his workload managed down the stretch since he will be surpassing both his innings and his pitch totals from 2025 in his first outing after the break. Should the Reds follow the 25 to 30 percent rule of thumb, that would put him somewhere between 135 and 145 innings by season's end. That could potentially lead to Burns working fewer than 50 innings the rest of the season as the Reds officially fall out of contention in very early September. Fantasy managers should aggressively begin to look for options in September because Burns is not likely to do much work in the final few weeks of the season.

Reynaldo Lopez

Lopez has already missed some time due to injury coming off a season in which he made one start before missing the rest of the season. That start came after him working 135.2 innings transitioning to the rotation after working 66 innings the previous season. He is on pace to work around 110 innings this season, which is obviously well above where he was last year as well as his totals from 2020-2023. Lopez recently rejoined the rotation and has pitched well until a hiccup over this past weekend. Atlanta has struggled with injuries this season and does not exactly have the luxury to manage pitchers, but Lopez is already 32, so Atlanta may just let him work and see whether his body holds up over the course of the season.

Spencer Arrighetti

Arrighetti came out of the gate red hot but has hit the skids recently with four of his last five starts involving four or more earned runs and three of them involving multiple homers. Arrighetti and the Astros have a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs, but Houston must balance the present with the future and not let this become another Lance McCullers Jr. situation. Arrighetti is only 26 and is under control through the 2030 season, so it would be in Houston's best interest to attempt to manage Arrighetti's workload that could dip into October. 

Reid Detmers

Detmers isn't pitching in unchartered territory, as he worked a career-high 148.2 innings back in 2023, but he's coming off two consecutive seasons of swing relief before rejoining the rotation this season. The Angels are already out of contention, and ownership has said they will not sell off anything, including the final two years of control they have with Detmers. Detmers has hit a bit of a wall in his recent outings, allowing five earned runs in three of his last four, but the strikeouts are still what entice fantasy managers. I do not expect any workload management here, but perhaps this recent slump is due to fatigue related to the sizable increase in his workload from 2025.

Shane McClanahan

Finally, we have the guy who missed nearly two and a half seasons pitching as well as he was before he went down with the multiple injuries. The Rays have been rather religious about workload management over the years, but the first-place club cannot exactly think about the future right now, especially if 2027 is impacted by a lockout, because next season is McClanahan's walk year. It would not be surprising to see him traded this winter if his arm holds up given the club's track record with such pitchers in this stage of their contract, but they do not have the depth in Triple-A to replace McClanahan's workload, even in the aggregate. They have already transitioned both Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour from the pen to the rotation after losing Ryan Pepiot to injury and watching Joe Boyle walk over eight batters per nine innings with Triple-A Durham. Fantasy managers just have to ride this one out and hope that McClanahan's body does not wear down the rest of the way. He did show signs of heading in that direction a few weeks ago, but an adjustment to his schedule led to two strong outings heading into the break.