MLB Barometer: Mocks and Martians

While the sports world's attention may have shifted with the return of the NFL season, we're set for a fairly exciting September in the baseball world. At least half the divisions (the AL East, AL West and NL Central) should give us legitimate title races, and we have enough contenders still in the mix that we should have real Wild Card races in both leagues as well. 

We should also see teams fighting to the very end for seeding purposes, with the battle for the fourth seed in the NL (and therefore home-field advantage in the three-game Wild Card round) potentially going down to the wire. Even teams that are out of it are calling up exciting young talents to keep fans invested. (More on that in a minute.)

If there's nothing left in 2023 to interest you, though, can I interest you in 2024? I'm taking part in an early 2024 mock draft alongside 14 other Tout Wars participants. If you want to follow along, here's the public draft board. I drew the first pick and selected Ronald Acuna Jr. without much thought, which I assume isn't particularly controversial. I've only made two more picks as of writing, selecting Kevin Gausman and Michael Harris II with picks 30 and 31. 

I was quite happy to get Gausman there as the fourth pitcher off the board and was prepared to double up on pitchers had Luis Castillo fallen two more picks, but I had to pivot once Joe Sheehan selected Castillo at pick 28. Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — each of whom went in the next six picks — were also under consideration, and I could well pick any of them over Harris if I'm in the same spot in March.

Here are a handful of early-round players whose ADP might take some time to figure out, if this draft and the Too Early Meatball Draft organized by Rob DiPietro a couple weeks ago and written up by James Anderson and Ryan Rufe are any indication:

Otherwise, there's plenty of general "consensus" among the first few rounds, to the extent that word even applies in a sample size of two. Performances (and sadly, injuries) over the rest of September will of course also inform what next year's draft pool will actually look like. For now, we'll return to the present day. Not on Earth, but on Mars... 

RISERS

Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: A word of warning before we dive in: it's tough to have a rational conversation about Dominguez right now, and it could well be tough for the next several years. That's what happens with top Yankee prospects who are in the public eye since age 16, the age Dominguez was when he signed for over $5 million. Five months before his 21st birthday, and after just nine Triple-A games, Dominguez is now a major leaguer, one who's hit three homers in his first five big-league games. That all but ensures the hype won't die down anytime soon, and the excitement may make it more difficult to figure out exactly who Dominguez currently is. While the Mike Trout/Mickey Mantle comparisons were always obvious hyperbole, the important thing to note is that comparing him to genuine all-rounders no longer seems accurate. A career 24.4 percent strikeout rate in the minors (and 25.6 percent this year at Double-A) means he should have modest or worse contact concerns, at least at the start of his career — hardly a shame for a 20-year-old — and while he did steal 40 bases in the minors this year, reports on his speed have shifted from elite to above-average as he's aged. That leaves him as a young outfielder with power and speed as well as whiff issues, something which comes in many varieties. Which path the Martian will take won't become clear in merely a month.

Justin Steele, SP, Cubs: Steele was quite interesting back in draft season. His 119 innings in 2022 meant he would have escaped the notice of those combing the qualified starter leaderboards, but his 3.18 ERA (and similar 3.48 xFIP) in those innings made for a compelling   sleeper. Of course, there's quite a gap between "compelling sleeper" and "second-favorite for the NL Cy Young." Steele's career-high 12 strikeouts against the Giants on Monday and his 14 shutout innings across his last two starts have helped him jump into that conversation and have earned him a spot here this week, though in truth, he's been rising for almost the entirety of the year. He's been remarkably consistent, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 24 of his 26 starts en route to a 2.55 ERA. His strikeout rate (24.5 percent) is a tenth of a point below his mark from last year, and his groundball rate (48.6 percent) remains above-average, if down a few ticks. The big shift for him this season has been an improvement in his walk rate, which has dropped from 9.8 percent to 5.3 percent. There's a big difference between a pitcher who gets an above-average amount of whiffs and grounders but issues too many walks and one who misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground while also avoiding free passes, as Steele's award cabinet may one day demonstrate. 

Aaron Civale, SP, Rays: Stop me if you've heard this one before: pitcher joins Rays, becomes more interesting. Tampa Bay acquired Civale (with 2.5 years of team control remaining) from the Guardians at the deadline, parting with highly-touted first base prospect Kyle Manzardo. Like many pitchers who find their way to Tampa, Civale comes with injury concerns, having never made more than 21 starts at the big-league level, and his recent numbers were something of a mixed bag. In 2022, he showed promise in both his strikeout rate (24.1 percent) and walk rate (5.4 percent) but struggled to a 4.92 ERA. In 13 starts for Cleveland prior to the deal this year, his strikeout rate fell to 19.0 percent and his walk rate rose to 7.2 percent, yet he cruised to a 2.34 ERA. In six outings for his new team, his 3.82 ERA therefore represents a big step backwards, but given that he's raised his strikeout rate to 28.2 percent while slashing his walk rate to 3.8 percent, it's hard not to get excited. Zoom in on just his last four starts and you'll notice the Rays making a tweak which may be behind the increase in whiffs: he's thrown his slider 11.6 percent of the time in those four outings, having used it just 1.1 percent of the time over his previous eight. With a new team and a new pitch mix driving his newfound strikeout ability, Civale is one to watch down the stretch. 

William Contreras, C, Brewers: Contreras burst onto the scene with a 138 wRC+ in  97 games for Atlanta last year, but through the first three months of his first season in Milwaukee, he looked to be taking a step back. His 104 wRC+ through the end of June (the product of a .243/.336/.409 slash line) remained entirely adequate for a catcher but didn't meet his elevated expectations. That mediocre performance did include one encouraging sign, however, as he struck out just 20.2 percent of the time, well below his 27.7 percent strikeout rate from 2022. If he could maintain that increased level of contact over the back half of the schedule, there seemed to be a chance he could get back to last season's level. He has indeed maintained a nearly identical 20.0 percent strikeout rate since the start of July, and his wRC+ over that stretch has jumped back up to 139, edging out his performance from last year. On the whole, while Contreras remains five homers shy of last season's total of 20 despite receiving 131 more plate appearances, holding onto his significant contact improvement down the stretch bodes very well for his value next season. If he can lower his 54.0 percent groundball rate (sixth-highest among qualified hitters), he could provide a rare mix of power and average from the catcher position next season. 

Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs: I've featured Suzuki here as a faller in both early July and early August, both times with the same theme: the Cubs seemed to be pushing him to swing more than he was comfortable with, and it didn't seem to be working. He was very patient as a rookie, swinging at just 39.0 percent of all pitches, making him the seventh-pickiest hitter in the league among the 205 who came to the plate at least 400 times. That selectiveness only led to a slightly above-average walk rate (9.4 percent) and also brought a slightly elevated strikeout rate (24.7 percent), and with the whole picture adding up to a good but not great 116 wRC+, it's understandable that the Cubs would think about pushing for a change. Why that change began immediately following a start to the season in which Suzuki was having success while continuing to be very patient is unclear, and it's taken some time to have the desired effect, but we can finally start to see the aggressive version of Suzuki the Cubs must have been envisioning when they asked him to adjust his approach:

Suzuki has gotten more and more swing-happy, and a switch suddenly flipped. He's stopped striking out and has at the same time unlocked far more power, with half of his 16 homers this year coming since the start of August, a stretch which accounts for less than a quarter of his plate appearances.

Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers: Detroit's rebuild is well behind schedule, and while their young bats have started showing signs of promise this season, injuries to the pitchers who were supposed to form the core of the next good Tigers team continue to hold them back. Skubal hasn't been immune from that, with flexor tendon surgery sidelining him from Aug. 1 of last year to July 4 of this season. His first handful of starts after his return were mixed bag. He didn't last more than 5.1 innings in any of his first seven appearances, mixing four scoreless starts with three in which he allowed at least four runs, adding up to a 4.18 ERA. The Tigers have allowed him to air it out recently as he puts the surgery further in the rearview mirror, however, letting him throw six or more innings in each of his last four starts. He's turned in a series of excellent performances, riding a 30.3 percent strikeout rate and 6.1 percent walk rate to a 3.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over that run. Perhaps most encouragingly, Skubal's groundball rate this season sits at a career-best 53.7 percent, meaning there's little reason to fear the return of the home run issues which plagued him early in his career before he introduced his sinker. 

FALLERS

Max Scherzer, SP, Rangers: It's hardly unexpected for a 39-year-old future Hall of Famer, but Scherzer is seemingly in the stage of his career where he's Not Who He Once Was. That's evident in his season-long numbers, which contain a long list of worsts. His 28.6 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since 2014 and his 7.3 percent walk rate is his highest since 2012, not counting the short 2020 season. That's added up to a 3.91 ERA, his worst since 2011. FIP (4.37), xFIP (3.98) and SIERA (3.73) all differ on exactly what sort of ERA he actually deserves, but all three represent career worsts as well. Those strikeout and walk rates still suit a frontline starter just fine, but Scherzer's low 32.7 percent groundball rate has left him vulnerable to the long ball, with his 1.71 HR/9 standing as yet another career worst. He earns a spot here this week after giving up seven runs in just three innings of work against Houston on Wednesday, marking the second time in four starts he'd failed to complete four innings. Combine that with the forearm tightness Scherzer was dealing with before the outing and it paints a worrisome picture. Late-season health concerns have become part of the picture for the veteran righty, who dealt with oblique issues last September and arm fatigue late in 2021. This version of Scherzer remains quite good most of the time, but he may no longer be top-tier nor reliable. 

Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers: Note: the following was written before Garcia suffered patellar strain. The injury makes Garcia even more of a faller but doesn't explain the poor performance which landed him in this spot, as it occurred when Garcia collided with the wall while attempting to rob a home run Wednesday against the Astros.

For a substantial portion of the year, it looked like Garcia's surprising career arc was continuing and that he was reaching yet another new level in his age-30 season. Garcia burst onto the scene in 2021 with 31 homers alongside good speed and defense, but awful plate discipline limited his overall effectiveness. He made strides in that area last year while continuing to hit the ball hard, and through early August of this year, he was making yet another similar improvement: 

Between that steady improvement and his appearance at the Home Run Derby, Garcia appeared to be ascending into superstardom. Over the last three-plus weeks, however, he's fallen into a rut deep enough that his season-long numbers may end up closer to a match for last season's. Four homers in 19 games have kept him from totally bottoming out, but his .151/.205/.342 line (42 wRC+) isn't close to acceptable. What makes this slump particularly worrisome is that it's featured the return of the bottom-tier plate discipline that plagued him early in his career, as he's struck out 37.2 percent of the time to go with a 5.1 percent walk rate.

Trevor Story, 2B/SS, Red Sox: It was fair to expect a down month for Story in his return from elbow surgery, a procedure which prevented him from making his season debut until Aug. 8. We'd all just seen Bryce Harper go 38 games without a homer earlier this summer after elbow surgery of his own. Even in that context, it was probably fair to expect more from Story than the .176/.219/.286 line he's produced in 24 games since his return. The veteran infielder isn't showing signs of improvement as he gets more at-bats under his belt, either, going just 3-for-37 over his last 10 games. Story has at least attempted to make up for his struggles at the plate by adding value on the basepaths, as his six steals put him on pace for 37.5 per 600 plate appearances, but that hasn't been enough to offset the damage he's done elsewhere. Story's biggest problem is that he's simply made far too little contact, striking out 36.5 percent of the time. That's a continuation of a worrisome trend, as Story saw his strikeout rate jump to 30.8 percent last year after it sat at 25.1 percent across the prior four years. Story's severe struggles could make him a bargain at next spring's draft table, but at that point he'll be a 31-year-old bouncing back from major surgery who's developed significant contact concerns.

Taijuan Walker, SP, Phillies: After a rocky start, Walker spent much of the middle portion of the season looking like someone the Phillies would be comfortable handing the ball to for several innings in Game 3 of the upcoming Wild Card round, posting a 2.52 ERA over an 11-start stretch from May 78 through June 29. Since then, he's looked like the sort of pitcher who might eat regular-season innings but not one who should be throwing many important innings in October. Walker's 3.86 ERA in his five July starts remained passable, but a 4.85 xFIP foreshadowed difficult times to come, a prediction which looks accurate given his 5.20 ERA since the start of August. His peripherals over those 10 combined starts are thoroughly unimpressive, as he's combined an 18.1 percent strikeout rate with an 11.4 percent walk rate. Walker does still own an above-average 45.1 percent groundball rate since the start of July, but when a slight skill in keeping the ball on the ground is all you have going for you, you aren't making an impact in the playoffs, either in fantasy or real life.