Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Everyone wants to find the next Wander Franco, but it's easy to get too excited over Rookie or Short-Season League statistics.  They provide a mere snapshot of a particular player's skill set or production, and oftentimes that snapshot can change significantly once that player reaches full-season ball.  For every Franco, there are many more players like Kevin Maitan or Carlos Tocci.  While top recent draftees are easier to analyze, of course there is always a level of uncertainty as to how any of these players will perform as they progress up the ladder.

Currently, Marco Luciano of the Giants, Riley Greene of the Tigers and CJ Abrams of the Padres are turning heads with their standout performances in these lower-level leagues.  Greene and Abrams were high draft picks, while Luciano was the top international prospect signed in last year's class.  All three players could be stars.  All three players could be busts.  The truth likely lies somewhere in between.  Despite the high hopes and early success, it would be foolish to simply assume these players will be stars because of this small sample size against inferior competition.  They remain projections. 

Prospecting is an inexact science.  Remember, five players were drafted before Derek Jeter in 1992, and none of them are going to be in the Hall of Fame like Jeter.  While Mike Mussina was a first round pick, Mariano Rivera was signed for $2,500 back in 1990.  Both players entered the Hall this past weekend.  We'd like to think we have better scouting and better tools to evaluate players than 10, 20, 30 years ago, but in reality the process remains as mysterious as ever.  123 players were taken before Cody Bellinger in 2013.  And  he hit .210 in his first crack at Rookie Ball that year.

So be careful with Short-Season/Rookie League statistics.  They can be a springboard for some players, but they can be misleading for others.

UPGRADE

Tarik Skubal, P, DET – Skubal was profiled earlier this year, but he has further improved as the season has progressed.  The 22-year-old southpaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in eight straight starts, dating back to his time at High-A.  Now at Double-A, Skubal has been absolutely dominant in three starts for Erie with a 0.56 ERA and 34:4 K:BB over 16 innings.  Yes, you read that correctly.  He has punched out double-digit batters in each of those three outings, including 13 strikeouts in his most recent start Friday.  Skubal does not get as much publicity in the Tigers organization since he shares a rotation with Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Alex Faedo, but it is clear Skubal has placed himself in the same conversation as those hurlers. 

Gavin Lux, SS, LAD – Lux is arguably the hottest prospect in baseball right now, not missing a beat since being promoted to Triple-A.  Through 18 games, he's slashing an absurd .487/.552/.961 with seven home runs and 23 RBI.  Lux has hit above .310 at every level since High-A, and his power stroke seems to be rounding into form.  Add in a little speed on top, and he has all the makings of an elite middle infield prospect.  The only things holding him back come from not currently being on the Dodgers' 40-man roster and the lack of a place to play every day with the return of A.J. Pollock and Corey Seager from injury.  However, if Lux continues to scald the ball in this manner, the contending Dodgers may have no choice but to bring him up to add to an already potent offense.

Jonathan Stiever, P, CHW – Stiever is a polished college righty who attacks the strike zone with three pitches.  His lack of size or a high-90's heater were among the likely reasons he fell to the fifth round of the 2018 draft.  But after a solid, albeit unspectacular trial run at Low-A, Stiever has found his groove at High-A with a 2.08 ERA and 45:8 K:BB through 39 innings over six starts while opposing batters are hitting a putrid .182 against.  In a system lacking serious pitching depth, Stiever has placed himself firmly on the prospect map for the White Sox, as top pitching prospect Dylan Cease has struggled during his brief time in the big leagues, while Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning remain on the Injured List.

Heliot Ramos, OF, SF – While the Arizona League has been abuzz over the production and tools of 17-year-old Marco Luciano, Ramos represents another Giants teenager who has blossomed this season.  At just 19 and one of the youngest players in the California League, Ramos is hitting an impressive .311/.395/.523 with 12 home runs and 36 RBI in 64 games.  He has looked even better over his last 10 contests, batting .390 with two home runs, six RBI and one stolen base.  The power numbers are expected to eventually explode for Ramos, who is still filling out and improving.  After struggling at Low-A in 2018, he has cut down on his strikeouts, made far more hard and consistent contact, and refined his approach at the dish to accentuate his physical gifts.  Ramos has turned into an elite hitting prospect, even if he won't see the big leagues for a couple of years.

CHECK STATUS

Geraldo Perdomo, SS, ARI – Teammate Alek Thomas gets more of the fanfare, but Perdomo is an intriguing switch-hitting prospect in his own right, with plate discipline well beyond his years.  The 19-year old has drawn just as many walks as strikeouts (53) through 82 games for Low-A Kane County.  While he is hitting only .267, his On-Base Percentage sits at .399, which leads the Midwest League.  And Perdomo has been hot of late, batting .361 over his last 10 contests.  While he has not yet tapped into his power potential, the 6-foot-2, 185lb youngster could eventually develop home run pop.  Perdomo also has swiped 20 stolen bases on the season, which is tied for fifth in the league.  The Diamondbacks have to be pleased with the early success of their extremely young prospects like Perdomo, Thomas, Kristian Robinson and Corbin Carroll.

Tucker Davidson, P, ATL – Davidson, and not rotation mates Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller or Joey Wentz, leads the Southern League in ERA at 2.04.  In a system stacked with pitching talent, Davidson is an oft-overlooked southpaw with four pitches who keeps hitters off balance and in the ballpark.  His control can betray him at times, which leads many pundits in believing he will eventually end up in the bullpen.  However, the 23-year old has managed to limit the damage overall, and has also bumped up his strikeout rate in 2019 with 104 punch outs through 92.2 innings.  In arguably his best start of the season Thursday, Davison tossed eight scoreless innings, did not walk a batter while striking out nine.  He's missing more bats than ever, keeping the ball down and hitting his spots with greater frequency.  His current breakout campaign makes him a hurler to watch, even in an organization flush with arm talent.

Hector Yan, P, LAA – Yan is a 20-year old southpaw who has been brought along slowly by the Angels.  He has battled control problems since signing at 16 in 2015, but appears to be making strides.  In his first year of full-season ball, Yan has shown massive strikeout potential with 110 strikeouts in just 78.2 innings.  The opposition is also hitting a measly .196 against.  And while he has walked 40 batters over that span, he has improved of late by allowing only one walk in each of his last three starts.  Yan is still raw and may end up in the bullpen, but he's certainly helped his cause in 2019 and should stick in the rotation for now.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – Kelenic has come back down to earth since his scintillating start to the season at Low-A, but injuries have also played a role.  He's found the Injured List twice in the last two months, currently shelved with an ankle injury.  When healthy, Kelenic's numbers have been decent, but not gaudy.  In 30 contests at High-A, the 20-year old outfielder is hitting .250/.325/.444 with four home runs, 14 RBI and six steals.  Kelenic remains one of the better outfield prospects in the game and has seen his stock trend upward this season, but remains a couple of years from the big leagues and must prove he can stay healthy while also cutting down on his strikeouts.

DOWNGRADE

Lucius Fox, SS, TB – Fox is a switch-hitting shortstop with speed and plate discipline who achieved a promotion to Triple-A despite hitting just .225 in 83 games for Double-A Montgomery.  The inability to hit for average will hurt his fantasy profile significantly, as he does not provide much in the way of power.  However, Fox has speed to burn, and the Rays have suffered significant injuries up the middle this season, including Brandon Lowe, Daniel Robertson, Christian Arroyo and Matt Duffy.  Add in the fact Willy Adames looks less and less like a superstar every day, and Fox could get a crack at a middle infield job sooner rather than later.  However, it is also worth noting the presence of both Vidal Brujan and Wander Franco behind him in the minors, so Fox's leash could be incredibly short once he finally makes it to the bigs.

Monte Harrison, OF, MIA – Harrison has enjoyed a successful 2019 campaign, though his MLB debut may have to wait until next year.  He's been battling wrist soreness, but apparently the injury was a bit more serious than initially thought as he underwent right wrist surgery and will be sidelined the next 4-6 weeks.  With the Marlins having another dismal season and relegated to playing the role of spoiler, it is unlikely the Fish would rush Harrison back just to be a September call-up.  Instead, he'll likely focus in returning to health and getting ready for a shot at everyday playing time in the majors come 2020.  Harrison was hitting .284/.372/.479 with nine home runs, 22 RBI and 22 steals in 50 games prior to the injury.  It now appears Isan Diaz is the most likely Marlins prospect to get called up next, as he was part of the package along with Harrison, Lewis Brinson and Jordan Yamamoto that the Marlins received from the Brewers in exchange for Christian Yelich.

Aramis Ademan, SS, CHC – The Cubs aggressively pushed Ademan to High-A as a teenager last year, and it backfired when he hit an ugly .207/.291/.273 over 114 games.  He returned to the same level to begin 2019, in the hopes a turnaround would be in short order.  Unfortunately, Ademan has continued to struggle by batting only .236 through 81 games, though he has posted five home runs and 13 stolen bases during that stretch.  He's an athletic shortstop but lacks home run pop, and has not yet been able to figure out how to translate his raw speed to the basepaths  by being caught stealing 20 times over the past three seasons.  Add in the presence of top prospect Nico Hoerner directly ahead of him, and Ademan's stock has taken a bit of a nosedive.

Colton Welker, 3B, COL – Welker was recently placed on the Injured List due to an undisclosed injury.  He wasn't exactly raking prior to the injury either, batting just .259/.312/.415 through 82 games for Double-A Hartford.  This is the first real difficulty Welker has faced since entering the minors, as he had never hit below .329 at any previous level to this season.  He's never struck out a ton, but he doesn't walk a lot either.  With only average power at best, Welker's ability to hit for a high average had been separating him from the pack.  If that average slides, he becomes a more ordinary hitting prospect, even with his future games being played in the thin air in Colorado.  It remains to be seen if there is any relationship between the injury and his struggles.  With Nolan Arenado manning the hot corner for the foreseeable future, a position change for Welker may also eventually occur.