Leaderboard of the Week: Spring Training Velocity Changes

Not much can be gleaned from spring training, but one stat that does matter is fastball velocity. While it may seem like pitchers work up to their regular season velocity, that's not really the case. Pitchers get to their desired velocity, and then they increase the number of pitches they can throw at that velocity. 

There is a league-wide velocity increase from spring training to the regular season, but it's less than one mph. And with that typical bump up, those pitchers who are already throwing harder should also see an additional increase. Let's get to the leaderboards. 

Four-Seam Fastball Velocity Up

Randy Vasquez (+2.6 mph): Vasquez is out of options, so he was always going to make the rotation. With the added velocity, the hope is that he could improve on his 5.3 K/9 from last season a be a fantasy asset.

Bryce Miller (+2.4 mph): Miller is dealing with a side injury, but considering he's being drafted after pick 200, you can take a chance on him and just replace him if he starts the season on the injured list.

Shota Imanaga (+2.0 mph): After struggling with his fastball last season, he's throwing it harder this spring. The hope is that he'll return to or improve on his 2024 season (2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.0 K/9).

Cole Ragans (+1.8 mph): Ragans didn't need to throw harder, but he is. The biggest issue with Ragans will be his health, since he's only thrown over 100 innings once in four major-league seasons. 

Ryan Weathers (+1.6 mph): Like several of the guys listed in this article, Weathers has a long injury history, with no seasons where he threw over 100 innings. Weathers is an ideal late-draft add to use when he's healthy and then drop once he goes on the injured list.

Sinking Fastball Velocity Up 

Lance McCullers Jr. (+2.5 mph): McCullers has struggled with injuries, limiting him to just over 100 combined innings over the past four seasons. The velocity bump puts him back to his 2021 level.

J.T. Ginn (+1.7 mph): Ginn throws two solid secondary pitches, a slider (17 percent SwStr%) and a changeup (19 percent SwStr%). By adding velocity, he went from a below league-average fastball to one that's above average.

Four-Seam Fastball Velocity Down 

Carlos Estevez (-6.9 mph): This is a major velocity drop, but I've heard some talking heads mention that his velocity has been down in previous seasons. The best place to check for previous decline is at Brooks-Baseball.net. 

First search for and go to the player's page. From the pitcher's page, go to the "Velo and Movement" page. In the "Pitch Types" dropdown on the left, select just "Fourseam" and/or "Sinker". The resulting chart will show the pitcher's velocity by month:

Estevez gains velocity over the season, but he's never started a season this low. 

Spencer Strider (-2.4 mph): The hope coming into the season was that Strider could return to his pre-internal brace surgery form. Nope, it's gotten worse. If the velo drop sticks, it'll be the fourth straight decline starting in 2022 (98.2 mph to 97.2 to 96.3 to 95.5 to 93.1).

Historically, Strider's fastball has a 11.8 percent whiff rate when under 94 mph and a 25.2 percent whiff rate when over 94 mph. For a guy who has thrown his fastball around 60 percent of the time, he needs to throw it harder, add some secondaries, or follow the Noah Syndergaard career path. 

Freddy Peralta (-1.9 mph): There are no reports for a reason behind the drop. The only time he has seen his fastball velocity to this level was the shortened 2020 season. I felt he was overvalued before the decline, and now I'm for sure not rostering him. 

Sinking Fastball Velocity Down 

Logan Gilbert (-2.7 mph): The drop in his sinker velocity is a misclassification. He isn't throwing a sinker this year, and the three pitches are actually cutters. One of the quickest giveaways that something is off is that his four-seam velocity has actually increased 1.0 mph.