During Spring Training, I examined some pitchers who were experiencing a fastball velocity change. It's now time to dive into some regular-season values. I'm only going to examine starting pitchers since everyone is trying to find this season's breakout.
Here are the twenty biggest velocity gainers and decliners for both sinkers and four-seam fastballs. After the list, I examined some actionable changes.
Biggest Fastball Velocity Increases
| Four-Seam | 2025 | 2026 | Diff | Sinker | 2025 | 2026 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 94.7 | 97.4 | 2.7 | Shota Imanaga | 88.2 | 90.9 | 2.7 |
| Ryan Feltner | 93.5 | 95.5 | 2.0 | Randy Vasquez | 93.2 | 95.5 | 2.3 |
| Janson Junk | 93.6 | 95.4 | 1.8 | Dustin May | 94.5 | 96.7 | 2.2 |
| Randy Vasquez | 93.4 | 95.0 | 1.6 | Kodai Senga | 88.6 | 90.5 | 1.9 |
| Dylan Cease | 97.1 | 98.7 | 1.5 | Ryan Feltner | 93.7 | 95.2 | 1.5 |
| Roki Sasaki | 96.1 | 97.6 | 1.5 | Chris Sale | 93.8 | 95.3 | 1.4 |
| Will Warren | 93.3 | 94.7 | 1.4 | Luis Severino | 95.7 | 96.9 | 1.2 |
| Luis Severino | 96.1 | 97.4 | 1.4 | Brandon Sproat | 95.7 | 96.8 | 1.1 |
| Shota Imanaga | 90.8 | 92.1 | 1.3 | Kyle Freeland | 91.3 | 92.3 | 0.9 |
| Nolan McLean | 95.6 | 96.9 | 1.2 | Will Warren | 93.2 | 94.1 | 0.9 |
| Jake Irvin | 92.4 | 93.6 | 1.2 | Erick Fedde | 93.2 | 94.1 | 0.9 |
| Taj Bradley | 96.2 | 97.4 | 1.2 | Gavin Williams | 95.9 | 96.8 | 0.9 |
| Jack Flaherty | 92.9 | 94.1 | 1.2 | Dylan Cease | 96.1 | 96.9 | 0.8 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 90.7 | 91.8 | 1.1 | Luis Castillo | 94.8 | 95.7 | 0.8 |
| Chris Sale | 94.8 | 95.9 | 1.0 | Seth Lugo | 91.3 | 92.1 | 0.8 |
| Gavin Williams | 96.6 | 97.5 | 1.0 | Parker Messick | 91.4 | 92.2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin May | 95.4 | 96.3 | 0.9 | Matthew Liberatore | 94.0 | 94.7 | 0.8 |
| Andre Pallante | 94.5 | 95.4 | 0.9 |
During Spring Training, I examined some pitchers who were experiencing a fastball velocity change. It's now time to dive into some regular-season values. I'm only going to examine starting pitchers since everyone is trying to find this season's breakout.
Here are the twenty biggest velocity gainers and decliners for both sinkers and four-seam fastballs. After the list, I examined some actionable changes.
Biggest Fastball Velocity Increases
| Four-Seam | 2025 | 2026 | Diff | Sinker | 2025 | 2026 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 94.7 | 97.4 | 2.7 | Shota Imanaga | 88.2 | 90.9 | 2.7 |
| Ryan Feltner | 93.5 | 95.5 | 2.0 | Randy Vasquez | 93.2 | 95.5 | 2.3 |
| Janson Junk | 93.6 | 95.4 | 1.8 | Dustin May | 94.5 | 96.7 | 2.2 |
| Randy Vasquez | 93.4 | 95.0 | 1.6 | Kodai Senga | 88.6 | 90.5 | 1.9 |
| Dylan Cease | 97.1 | 98.7 | 1.5 | Ryan Feltner | 93.7 | 95.2 | 1.5 |
| Roki Sasaki | 96.1 | 97.6 | 1.5 | Chris Sale | 93.8 | 95.3 | 1.4 |
| Will Warren | 93.3 | 94.7 | 1.4 | Luis Severino | 95.7 | 96.9 | 1.2 |
| Luis Severino | 96.1 | 97.4 | 1.4 | Brandon Sproat | 95.7 | 96.8 | 1.1 |
| Shota Imanaga | 90.8 | 92.1 | 1.3 | Kyle Freeland | 91.3 | 92.3 | 0.9 |
| Nolan McLean | 95.6 | 96.9 | 1.2 | Will Warren | 93.2 | 94.1 | 0.9 |
| Jake Irvin | 92.4 | 93.6 | 1.2 | Erick Fedde | 93.2 | 94.1 | 0.9 |
| Taj Bradley | 96.2 | 97.4 | 1.2 | Gavin Williams | 95.9 | 96.8 | 0.9 |
| Jack Flaherty | 92.9 | 94.1 | 1.2 | Dylan Cease | 96.1 | 96.9 | 0.8 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 90.7 | 91.8 | 1.1 | Luis Castillo | 94.8 | 95.7 | 0.8 |
| Chris Sale | 94.8 | 95.9 | 1.0 | Seth Lugo | 91.3 | 92.1 | 0.8 |
| Gavin Williams | 96.6 | 97.5 | 1.0 | Parker Messick | 91.4 | 92.2 | 0.8 |
| Dustin May | 95.4 | 96.3 | 0.9 | Matthew Liberatore | 94.0 | 94.7 | 0.8 |
| Andre Pallante | 94.5 | 95.4 | 0.9 | Landen Roupp | 92.8 | 93.5 | 0.7 |
| Kyle Freeland | 91.6 | 92.4 | 0.8 | Cam Schlittler | 97.5 | 98.2 | 0.7 |
| Ryne Nelson | 95.7 | 96.4 | 0.8 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 91.5 | 92.1 | 0.7 |
Randy Vasquez (four-seam +1.6 mph, sinker +2.3 mph): Without the velocity bump, Vasquez was barely a streamer. Even with some continued control problems (4.5 BB/9), his stock is way up. He struck out eight batters in his first start, the second-most of his career and two more strikeouts than his next highest game. Likely add in all formats.
Luis Severino (four-seam +1.4 mph, sinker +1.2 mph): The added velocity is not able to cover up his inability to find the plate. A 10.8 K/9 looks great, but not when it's paired with an 8.6 BB/9. His problem this year, and it has been that way since 2019, is that he doesn't have anything close to an average or better secondary pitch.
Will Warren (four-seam +1.4 mph, sinker +0.9 mph): He seems to have fallen in love with his fastballs by throwing them a combined 81 percent of the time in his first start. Warren has a similar issue to Severino where he doesn't have anything close to an average secondary, so hitters can sit on the fastballs. I'd like to see him add another good pitch.
Taj Bradley (four-seam +1.2 mph): The 25-year-old has been a solid source of strikeouts, even before adding velocity. His problem has always been walks, with a career 1.30 WHIP. He walked three batters 4.1 innings in his first start of the season. He needs to gain some control before I buy in.
Biggest Fastball Velocity Declines
| Four-Seam | 2025 | 2026 | Diff | Sinker | 2025 | 2026 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 92.2 | 90.1 | -2.2 | Michael McGreevy | 91.8 | 89.6 | -2.2 |
| Reid Detmers | 95.8 | 93.6 | -2.2 | Emerson Hancock | 94.7 | 92.6 | -2.1 |
| Slade Cecconi | 94.3 | 92.3 | -2.0 | Reid Detmers | 95.6 | 93.6 | -2.0 |
| Michael McGreevy | 93.0 | 91.0 | -1.9 | Carmen Mlodzinski | 95.8 | 93.8 | -2.0 |
| Jacob Latz | 94.2 | 92.4 | -1.9 | Brady Singer | 92.2 | 90.5 | -1.7 |
| Brayan Bello | 95.1 | 93.3 | -1.8 | Jameson Taillon | 92.3 | 90.6 | -1.7 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 96.1 | 94.4 | -1.7 | Ryan Johnson | 94.3 | 92.9 | -1.4 |
| Emmet Sheehan | 95.6 | 94.0 | -1.6 | Jacob Lopez | 90.2 | 88.8 | -1.4 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 98.4 | 96.8 | -1.6 | Mitch Keller | 92.9 | 91.5 | -1.3 |
| Jameson Taillon | 92.3 | 90.8 | -1.4 | Kyle Bradish | 94.8 | 93.5 | -1.3 |
| Joe Boyle | 98.5 | 97.1 | -1.4 | Cade Cavalli | 96.9 | 95.7 | -1.2 |
| Emerson Hancock | 94.9 | 93.5 | -1.4 | David Peterson | 91.3 | 90.1 | -1.2 |
| Aaron Civale | 92.1 | 90.7 | -1.4 | Jack Flaherty | 90.7 | 89.6 | -1.1 |
| Mitch Keller | 94.0 | 92.7 | -1.3 | Kyle Leahy | 95.3 | 94.2 | -1.1 |
| Kyle Leahy | 95.4 | 94.1 | -1.3 | Aaron Civale | 92.3 | 91.2 | -1.1 |
| Max Fried | 95.8 | 94.5 | -1.3 | Walker Buehler | 93.8 | 92.7 | -1.1 |
| Davis Martin | 93.9 | 92.8 | -1.2 | Taijuan Walker | 92.0 | 90.9 | -1.1 |
| Kyle Bradish | 94.4 | 93.3 | -1.2 | Miles Mikolas | 92.4 | 91.3 | -1.1 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 95.6 | 94.4 | -1.1 | Max Fried | 94.0 | 93.0 | -1.1 |
| Jacob Lopez | 90.8 | 89.7 | -1.1 | Brayan Bello | 95.3 | 94.2 | -1.1 |
Michael McGreevy (four-seam -1.9 mph, sinker -2.2 mph) and Jacob Lopez (four-seam -1.1 mph, sinker -1.4 mph): This duo dropped below the 90-mph mark, where pitchers don't tend to survive. Here's how pitchers who averaged less than 90 mph with their fastballs performed last year, according to Tim Britton of The Athletic:
How difficult is it to survive in today's MLB while throwing 89? Only five starting pitchers averaged under 90 mph on their fastball last season; their combined ERA was 4.80, and three of them (Clayton Kershaw, Kyle Hendricks and Andrew Heaney) retired at the end of the season. Of the remaining two, Tyler Anderson remains unsigned and Trevor Williams is on the injured list after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow last July. Thus, none of those five may throw a big-league pitch this season.
Pitchers throwing under 90 mph don't seem to make it. (This could be a topic for a larger study in the future.)
Brady Singer (sinker -1.7 mph): Singer has a 4.24 ERA over his career while averaging 93 mph with his fastball. He's down to 90.5 mph this season. When his velocity drops, he gets hit around. In his first three seasons, his fastball averaged 93.7 mph, and he posted a 40 percent hard hit rate. Over the next three seasons, his fastball velocity averaged 92.1 mph, leading to a 44 percent hard hit rate. So far this year, with his diminished velocity, he's allowed a 58 percent hard hit rate. That makes him a possible drop.
Carmen Mlodzinski (four-seam -1.7 mph, sinker -2.0 mph), Emerson Hancock (four-seam -1.4 mph, sinker -2.1 mph), Jacob Latz (four-seam -1.9 mph), and Reid Detmers (four-seam -2.2 mph, sinker -2.0 mph): Each of these pitchers spent some time in the bullpen last season, so some velocity drop should be expected now that they're starting games.
Kyle Bradish (four-seam -1.2 mph, sinker -1.3 mph): On its own, the velocity drop doesn't throw up a red flag. When the velocity loss is paired with the lack of control (5.8 BB/9, 41 percent zone rate), I become worried. This is Bradish's first full season back from Tommy John surgery, so he could still have lingering effects from the procedure.
Mixed Results
Jack Flaherty (four-seam +1.2 mph, sinker -1.1 mph): He sped up his four-seamer and took something off his sinker. At first, I wondered if the slower pitch was misclassified, but after looking at the shape, it's definitely a sinker. Differentiating his fastballs is going to matter, since he walked twice as many batters (four) as he struck out (two) in his first start. He came into the season as a streaming option, but I'm not sure he still is one right now if he can't throw strikes.
