A busy 13-game main slate awaits Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Though only three arms are priced in five-figures, six more come in at $9,000 or greater, giving us some upper-tier depth to sort through.
We've seen what Las Vegas Ballpark has done for offense (48 runs in three games), so it's no surprise Rockies-A's has the slate's highest total at 13.5. No other game has a double-digit mark, with Reds-Diamondbacks next in line at 9.5. Phillies-Brewers is our low spot at 7.5 thanks to ace Jacob Misiorowski ($11,300) being on the mound. Milwaukee (-250) is the biggest favorite as well, followed by the A's (-196) and Dodgers (-152). We'll need to monitor rain in New York and Minnesota slightly, but overall weather should be favorable for offense, as it's hot in our open air stadiums. Winds look favorable in Chicago.
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Pitching
Shane Baz, BAL vs. SD ($9,300): Baz is one out from having provided five-straight quality starts. His strikeouts aren't elite (7.7 per nine) and walks remain a concern, so he's a bit more of a GPP gamble than a stable cash play. San Diego also has a somewhat elevated 4.1 run expectancy, not exactly the profile for a pay-up pitcher. But do we think the Padres are breaking out here? They sit with an 87 wRC+ off righties while striking out at a 23.1 percent clip against righties. Also consider Nolan McLean ($9,100) as a lower rostered GPP option against a Braves' lineup that is ugly on paper due to injury.
Roki Sasaki, LAD at CWS ($8,600): Sasaki finally looks like the guy the Dodgers thought they were getting when they brought him stateside; he's allowed just four runs over his last four games, fanning 29 in 24.1 innings while allowing just 13 hits. His 44.7 percent ground ball rate alleviates the wind concerns, and the White Sox' 23.9 percent K rate off righties should allow him to fan at least one per frame.
Tatsuya Imai, HOU at KC ($7,900): Imai is averaging 34.7 FanDuel points across his last three starts, so if form holds, we can get a 4x or slightly better return for a very fair price. Walks remain a problem, and the Royals will take them at 9.4 percent, but they haven't hit all season, posting a 91 wRC+ and .141 ISO off righties. I don't love Kansas City's 4.8 run expectancy, but Imai's recent run suggests they won't get there, as he's allowed just four runs and eight hits over his last 17.0 innings. He's likely too volatile for cash lineups but makes for an attractive pay-down in tournaments to free up offensive spending. Javier Assad ($6,600) is also a viable option.
Top Targets
This so obviously starts with the Athletics and their obscene 8.9 run expectancy. They aren't priced up either, so stacking is in play, but if you just want a piece to ride the chalk, it's Nick Kurtz ($4,300) or Shea Langeliers ($3,900) and move on.
Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) is always in play, and makes for an interesting pivot off Kurtz with potentially less rostership. He's homered three times in his last six and has a .410 wOBA and .260 ISO off lefties overall.
Andrew Painter has a 6.65 road ERA (5.58 FIP), allowing a .400 wOBA to lefties and .434 to righties, putting the entire Milwaukee lineup in play. Unfortunately, the Brewers are priced up with five options at $3,700 or greater. Brice Turang ($4,100) has seen a slight price decrease of late, and carries a .419 wOBA and 170 wRC+ off righties.
Bargain Bats
Cheaper options into the Athletics lineup clearly start with Tyler Soderstrom ($3,300), but I think you may be able to use Zack Gelof ($3,000) as a lower-rostered piece should he start. He's hitting .280 with two homers in his last six.
Willi Castro ($2,700) brings four-position flexibility and a cheap entry into the other side of this game in Vegas. He's also hitting .311 over his last 11.
Eduardo Rodriguez doesn't have targetable splits, but he's been marginally worse on the road and his 2.52 ERA comes with a 4.24 xFIP, and with just 6.5 K/9, some regression has to be on the way. Matt McLain ($2,800) figures to be popular given his recent power surge, while Noelvi Marte ($2,400) is incredibly cheap for his potential.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Griffin Canning (Padres): Adley Rutschman ($3,700), Gunnar Henderson ($3,400), Samuel Basallo ($2,900)
Canning has been brutal, carrying a 6.34 ERA (5.03 FIP) into Friday. Lefties have been destroying him, posting a .404 wOBA overall, and in limited road exposure (22 batters faced), that rises to .570 with a 1.350 OPS. It looks like we could have some wind blowing, aiding these three's chances to pull a homer. Rutschman is a touch pricey for me, but he's hitting .467 over his last four, so it's justified. Basallo gives us a cheap chance at power, while Henderson seems overdue to yank one, having not homered since May 27. Jackson Holliday ($2,600) can also be considered as a cheaper option.
Rays vs. Sam Aldegheri (Angels): Yandy Diaz ($3,800), Junior Caminero ($3,400), Chandler Simpson ($2,900)
Aldegheri doesn't have enough innings to concern ourselves with splits, but he was hit hard in Triple-A this season and hasn't shown capable of missing many bats in the majors. Diaz and Caminero continue to hit lefties well, with the former posting a .412 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .231 ISO with the latter sitting at .409/162/.206. I love Caminero as a stand-alone play at this price. The third piece is far less obvious and may need to be altered based on how the Rays line up. Simpson is mired in a 2-for-29 slump over his last 11, so he's far from a must play. Consider him a placeholder for cheap until lineups are posted, and potentially pivot to another cheap option atop the order.
