This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We're looking at an 11-game main slate Friday evening, which unfortunately does not include the surging power bats that come cheaply in Atlanta's lineup, who have a day-game in Chicago. We do have Coors' Field however. All 22 pitchers are known, and this slate appears pretty top heavy with not much in the middle to low tiers worth trusting.
Pitching
We have four arms priced at $10,000 or greater, and six more at $9,000 or more, and then things seem to fall off of a cliff, with our 8k options being an overpriced Jon Gray ($8,600) thanks to a soft matchup with Detroit, and then four others facing the Dodgers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Coors Field, none of which we'd routinely target. Carlos Rodon ($10,700) appears to be worthy as the slate's top option against lowly Pittsburgh, but Rodon has seemingly pitched down to his competition, creating some pause for me. Truthfully, we can find flaws in all the top option's profiles Friday, but my favorite choices for stability with upside potential are Frankie Montas ($10,200) vs. Kansas City, Tarik Skubal ($9,900) vs. Texas and Carlos Carrasco ($9,700) vs. Miami. All three offer reasonable strikeout potential, but their opponents don't strike out often in these spots, but all three should be reliable sources of innings with minimal damage.
Given the difficult matchups, I am going to completely fade the 8k tier and jump straight down below them to see if we can find a bargain. And that hopefully comes from Devin Smeltzer ($7,500). He'll face an Arizona side that ranks 27th with a .89 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against lefties while fanning 23.8 percent of the time. Smeltzer isn't a big K guy, but that could play slightly up here. He's turned in three quality starts in his last four outings, and has failed to go five innings just once to date.
Top Targets
The Padres' bats aren't significantly priced up in Coors, so stacking is a surprisingly doable option. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact Kyle Freeland has limited them to a .188 average (27-of-118) and a .515 OPS. So without going overboard, pencil in Manny Machado ($4,300) and his .323 ISO and .410 wOBA as our building block, and move on.
Carlos Correa ($4,000) isn't hitting for big power, but he's hitting nonetheless, riding a seven-game hitting streak into Friday where he's amassed 12 hits (four for extra bases). He boasts a .393 wOBA against lefties and I like his chance to at least extend his streak.
The price dip on Aaron Judge ($3,600) could go overlooked. He's still managed three homers in his last five, scoring five times. At this number, he is almost a free square.
Bargain Bats
We certainly don't want to forget the Rockies side of Coors Field. They have ample options that have success against lefties, and got Mackenzie Gore for six runs in just 2.1 innings in his last start. Yonathan Daza ($2,900) leads the team with a .440 wOBA against righties, but has zero power upside. Brendan Rodgers ($3,200) would offer more upside.
Pittsburgh's Zach Thompson has actually been serviceable, so the Giants are another lineup I want just a piece from rather than a full on stack. San Francisco has six hitters with a wOBA north of .370, so there's no shortage of choices. Joc Pederson ($3,400) is the power chase, boasting a .397 wOBA and .297 ISO against righties, but Thompson has been more vulnerable to same-handed hitters, something this lineup doesn't have much of, further reason to not go too hard in on them.
Oakland's offense is so bad, their most expensive bat Friday is Ramon Laureano ($2,600). Simply remarkable. But don't we have to target against Daniel Lynch every time he throws? He's allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, 22 total across 24.0 innings. Laureano works well with a .409 wOBA and 177 wRC+ against southpaws, and so does Sean Murphy ($2,500) with his .390 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .309 ISO.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Yankees (Jordan Montgomery): Vladimir Guerrero ($4,200), George Springer ($3,800), Santiago Espinal ($2,700)
This stack will test BvP thought some, as there's familiarity thanks to the division matchup, but moderate, at best, success from the Blue Jays against Montgomery. But we know this lineup is right-handed heavy, and they rake against lefties. Guerrero is obvious and gives immense upside with a .375 ISO, .480 wOBA and .219 wRC+ against southpaws. Springer isn't in great form, but has a 41.4 percent hard hit rate to go with a .394 wOBA. Espinal offers some savings, and boasts a .455 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .250 ISO in this spot. Bo Bichette ($3,700) has had the most head-to-head success against Montgomery, and is in play if he is in the lineup.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox (Michael Wacha): Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Brendan Donovan ($2,800)
I'm not buying what Wacha is throwing. Surely, he's due regression with a 2.33 ERA but a 4.36 xFIP, just 6.0 K/9 and a .213 BABIP that's 0.099 lower than last year's number. Goldschmidt gives us an obvious anchor with a .422 wOBA, 177 wRC+ and .274 ISO. Donovan gives us a bit of a discount with his .410 wOBA and 168 wRC+, and he'll put the ball in play, striking out just 13.8 percent of the time. Arenado is a BvP play only as his shine has faded immensely since April. But he's 6-of-13 with three homers and a 1.654 OPS against Wacha.
