This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
About half the league is taking the field Monday night, leaving us with a decent seven-game main slate to work with. There are no traditional aces taking the hill, Logan Webb is a possible exception, so it should be a popular day to pay down at pitcher. Similarly, there aren't many standout options for hitters either, leaving this as a day to play pretty close to what the matchups dictate.
Pitchers
Paying $11,000 for Zach Eflin feels wrong, but for those that want to pay up, he should be the target. The Athletics have shown some fight by winning five of their last six games, but they still have the fourth-worst wOBA in the league and play in a wonderful park for pitchers. Eflin lags behind some of the pitchers priced below him based on his 25.7 percent strikeout rate, but his 3.19 SIERA is elite.
After Eflin, it's time to dip into the second tier of options, where both Jesus Luzardo ($9,300) and James Paxton ($9,000) stand out. Paxton is the only traditional starter available with a strikeout rate above 30 percent (33%) and his 3.29 SIERA suggests the rest of his skills aren't far behind. With a matchup against the Rockies at Fenway Park, this setup is about as good as it gets. The case for Luzardo is also based on his strikeout upside – he owns a 28.2 K% -- and he draws a matchup against a Mariners lineup that has the third-highest strikeout rate in the league.
As we dip into a lower tier, the options get dicey. In cash games, I'd stick with a combination of the first three arms mentioned. In tournaments, Luke Weaver ($7,500) is a viable option. He ranks in the top half of the available pitchers in K% and SIERA and he draws a matchup against a Royals lineup that strikes out a lot and has had little production. Vinnie Pasquantino is also out, leaving a massive hole in the lineup.
The punt options aren't great, but for those that want to pay all the way down, Dane Dunning ($6,100) has the look of being the best option. He has marginal skills and a fairly tough matchup against the Angels, so this really isn't a great option.
Top Hitters
It's reflected in his price, but Corbin Carroll ($5,600) has taken a step forward in his production of late by averaging an incredible 16.7 DK points across his last 10 games. That won't last forever, but it may not end Monday, as he'll draw the combination of Matt Strahm and Dylan Covey. Covey is projected to be the bulk pitcher, and he's served up 2.8 HR/9 this season and 1.7 for his career.
Nick Castellanos ($4,800) has quietly had a solid bounceback season overall, and he's crushed lefties to the tune of a .181 ISO and .377 wOBA. A matchup against Tommy Henry is particularly compelling, as he's served up 1.6 HR/9 and has the lowest strikeout rate on the slate (14.3 percent).
Value Bats
The Reds have been trying to settle on a leadoff hitter in recent games and have rotated through a number of different options. Among those have been Kevin Newman ($3,000) and Will Benson ($2,600), both of whom would offer solid value at their price thanks to matchup against contact-heavy Zach Greinke and the overall improvement of the Reds lineup since the start of the season.
Speaking of the leadoff spot, Brendan Donovan ($2,900) appears to have settled into that position for the Cardinals against righties. It's a tough matchup against Logan Webb, but this lineup is capable of putting up runs against anybody.
Stacks to Consider
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson): Marcus Semien ($5,800), Corey Seager ($5,900), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,500)
Everything about this matchup is a slam dunk on paper. As measured by wOBA and wRC+, only the Rays have a better lineup than the Rangers. Meanwhile, Anderson has the second-lowest strikeout rate of the available pitchers as well as a double-digit walk rate. The primary downside to this stack is the cost, though pairing Luzardo or Paxton with Weaver should open enough salary to stack the top of the Rangers' lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics (James Kaprielian): Yandy Diaz ($4,900), Wander Franco ($5,600), Randy Arozarena ($5,400)
Now, we get to the aforementioned Rays – the best offense in baseball by both wOBA and wRC+. That's a good enough case on its own, but the matchup against Kaprielian is even more compelling, as he's posted a 12.3 percent walk rate and served up 1.4 HR/9 this season. That's a pretty straightforward case as well. This is another expensive stack, and the other problem is the poor hitting conditions of the Oakland Coliseum.
