Collette Calls: Managing Steals

For those of you attending First Pitch Arizona this weekend, this is your sneak peek at some of the content which I will be presenting on a panel with Derek Carty and Andy Andres on Friday morning. Look for me as the tall guy in the middle between the two big brains. 

Much has been made of what happened with steals, but what we haven't seen is a look at how individual managers adapted to the new environment year over year. We saw a dramatic shift in how steals were utilized, as the league increased its frequency for attempting steals of second base by 24.6 percent while increasing its attempted steals of third base by 53.8 percent:

Change is never easy, especially for a group of managers who have been in the game for anywhere from two to six decades. 26 managers guided their clubs in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, and the average age of that group was 53 years old, ranging from Oliver Marmol (36) to Dusty Baker (74.) Yet I am here to tell you that managers, both young and old, changed more than many expected. All data referenced in this article is focused on the 26 teams who carried their managers over from the 2022 season, as I've intentionally excluded the rookie managers from this past season.

The attempted steals of second were led by rookie manager Matt Quatraro's Royals, who took off for second in 12.2 percent of their opportunities. I mention that data point as something to watch for in 2024, but four repeat skippers allowed their team to attempt steals of second base more than 10 percent of the time:

• David Bell (Cincinnati) - 11.8%
• Terry Francona (Cleveland) - 11.2%
• Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay) - 10.7%
• Mark Kotsay (Oakland) - 10.4%

However, if we look at the increases from 2022, we saw several noticeable increases in frequency, with the aforementioned Bell leading the way along with some other surprising managers:

1. David Bell (Cincinnati) - 107% increase
2. Alex Cora (Boston) - 105% increase
3. Bob Melvin (San Diego) - 102% increase
4. Rocco Baldelli (Minnesota) - 72% increase
5. Bud Black (Colorado) - 64% increase
6. Buck Showalter (New York) - 63% increase
7. Mark Kotsay (Oakland) - 55% increase
8. A.J. Hinch (Detroit) - 51% increase
9. Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay) - 45% increase
10. Dave Martinez (Washington) - 40% increase

Conversely, two managers had a lower frequency of attempted steals of second in 2023 than they did in 2022:

1. Gabe Kapler (San Francisco) - 10% decline
2. Oliver Marmol (St. Louis) - 15% decline

The changes were more dramatic in attempting to steal third base as the league attempted 226 more steals of third base in 2023 than it did in 2022. For example, 11 of the 30 teams attempted fewer than 10 steals of third base in 202,2 but that total was reduced to just four teams in 2023. Some of the changes were rather dramatic:

Overall, the managers with the largest year over year increase in calling for stolen bases were:

1. David Bell - 159%
2. Bob Melvin - 128%
3. Alex Cora - 91%
4. Mark Kotsay - 81%

While the managers with the smallest increases year over year were:

1. Dave Roberts, Brandon Hyde, David Ross - 12%
2. Oliver Marmol & Aaron Boone - 0%
3. Gabe Kapler - -9%

You should note that the Giants dumped Kapler and replaced him with Bob Melvin, so we should look to some Giants players as a surprise source of steals given how reticent their former skipper was to put players in motion compared to their new one, who did it more frequently than nearly every other manager.

The benefits of putting more runners in motion are simple: it gets runners into scoring position without needing to put the ball in play. The increase in steals helped lead to the league-wide ERA for all pitchers jumping from 3.97 to 4.33, while starters specifically saw that rate jump from 4.05 to 4.45.

This is our new world order for steals, and old faces in new places as well as the new managers coming into play for 2024 are likely to keep this current momentum on the bases going.