Collette Calls: Worth the Wins?

Last week, we took a look at where wins were coming from and covered some ideas on what to consider for team and situational context when chasing those wins. This week, I would like to focus at a granular level at some individual sources for wins to date, and some things to consider when deciding whether to trust that pitcher moving forward if he is already on your roster or you are considering acquring the pitcher via trade or free agency. I will admit some of these names may not apply to the 10-team formats, but with the attrition rate we are seeing from starting pitching, the availiability pool is drying up quicker than the bodies of water here in my state of North Carolina where we are under a state-wide drought. We will begin with one of the more surprising success stories this season from the mound. 

Nick Martinez

We all know the Rays like to take projects from other teams and mold them into new models. Kyle Snyder and team have done that with Martinez, and a big part of it was convincing him to use his great changeup to righties, more as it is now his second most frequently used pitch against righties compared to his fourth most last season. I am guessing the conversation was an easy one since this "new" approach was the same one Martinez used in 2024 when he was last successful, but for some reason, he went cutter happy in 2025 to sub-optimal results.

The current results are better than anyone could have envisioned for Martinez when he came out of spring training with a 14.49 ERA allowing 29 hits, 22 runs, and 5 home runs in just 13.2 innings of work. It is almost like spring training stats do not matter after all. What does matter is the larger body of career work, and you see the gap in Martinez's current and career numbers. The silver lining is Martinez has spent most of his previous summers pitching in the hazerdous environments of outdoor Texas and the Great American Ballpark mixed around a two-year stint in San Diego. He now gets to enjoy the comforts of pitching indoors often in the summer, whether that be at home or on the road in several parks. That should help cushion the home runs to come. He has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any outing, and has not allowed a home run since doing so in each of his first three starts of 2026. He's not available in any leagues, but this should be the safest pitcher of the bunch to help with wins since he pitches for the team with the best winning percentage in baseball and is currently doing little to hurt himself on the mound, having walked one or fewer batters in seven of his nine starts. 

Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been a changed pitcher thus far in 2026, as he is sacrificing strikeouts for regular outs. He has added a curveball to his repertoire and has ramped up his changeup usage to keep hitters off balance, and it is working well for him, as he has four wins in his first nine starts along with the best ERA we have seen from him in a few seasons and a career-best 107 Location+ grade. 

The single-digit K-BB percentage is what is very concerning, because it involves an uphill climb to fight against history. That eight percent rate is kind to Rodriguez, because I rounded up his actual 7.6 percent rate. In the wildcard era (1995-present,) there have been just 12 pitchers to pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA in a season where they pitched at least 100 innings while posting a K-BB percentage below eight. Two of those instances were done by Hall of Famer Tom Glavine,  but there are some other interesting names on the list for you to consider if you believe Rodriguez is capable of persisting with his success:

All but two of these pitchers went on to win 10-plus games, and Mike Hampton even led the league in wins for the 1999 Astros. It is also worth noting that none of that has happened since 2011. If I just go back and look at the past 10 seasons, the lowest ERA I can find for a pitcher with at least 100 innings and a K-BB percentage of no higher than eight percent is Adrian Houser, who went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 2021 for Milwaukee. There are just five pitchers: Houser, Michael Lorenzen (2024), Dakota Hudson (2019), Andrew Cashner (2017) and John Gant (2018) who have been able to stay below the 3.50 ERA mark with this criterion. For Rodriguez to continue to keep his ERA well below his career norm, something will have to change, because as it stands now, it is likely to grow by at least a full run if not more.

Joey Cantillo

Cantillo has won just three of his 10 starts, but that 3.40 ERA might be a shiny distraction for some looking to get in on the confusion in the AL Central and hope for wins. Cantillo has not changed anything in his repertoire, either by mix or usage, so he has essentially been the same guy we have seen in the past two seasons, except now he is a full-time starter and is struggling with the newer zone.

Walks have always been a problem for Cantillo, but combine the increased walk rate this season with a five percentage point decline in strikeouts as he makes the move out of the pen and into the rotation, and the risk increases with him. His most recent outing against Cincinnati saw him allow four runs on four walks, and it was the third time in four starts he has walked at least three batters. He has three or more walks in five of his 10 starts this season, but has not struck out more than four batters since an April 19 outing against Baltimore. To me, Cantillo is a "break glass in case of emergency" option while also being extremely matchup dependent moving forward. He should do well against free swinging teams, like, for example, his six shutout innings against the Angels on May 11, but more discplined teams will be a challenge. 

Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!

Tomoyuki Sugano

Speaking of in case of emergency, that brings us to one of the more widely panned acquisitions of the offseason when the Rockies decided they liked the meltdown they witnessed in Baltimore by Sugano last summer and wanted to see how that worked out in Coors Field this season. Sugano is off to a surprisingly effective start with the Rockies with a 4-3 record and a 4.02 ERA, but he also had a hot start to 2025.

Last season, Sugano was 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA through his first 15 starts with Baltimore on a similar foundation of shaky skills and went 5-6 in his remaining 15 starts with a 5.89ERA, allowing 19 home runs in 73.1 innings pitched, in the reconfigured Camden Yards no less. We know the warmer weather is coming to Coors eventually, and 2026 Sugano, while making some adjustments to his pitch usage, is in for some tough sledding this summer. Perhaps you can use him as a road streamer in the deeper league formats, but do not be fooled again by this surprising start. This is a statistical avalanche waiting to happen. 

Grant Holmes

Holmes has won a third of his nine starts this season, but it has been quite the roller coaster. He took advantage of the anemic Red Sox offense his last time out and threw six shutout innings, winning for just the second time in his last seven starts. Prior to that outing, he was 1-0 with a 5.70 ERA allowing five home runs and 13 walks in 23.2 innings of work. The attractive part here is Holmes is pitching for the team with the best record in baseball who provides ample run support most nights. 

Atlanta is currently rolling with a six-man rotation, and Holmes will get the surprisingly scary Nationals his next time out. Holmes's numbers could improve if he could do anything to bring the home run rate down. If that does not happen, he could end up in the bullpen, which would help him bring his strikeouts back up to previous levels, as the transition to the rotation has cut into his whiffiness. As it stands now, he and Rodriguez should be put in the same boat for risk/reward outcomes until something changes. 

Aaron Civale

Civale has now won five of his nine starts this season, including each of his last three starts, with a 2.70 ERA this season. He is once again taking a kitchen sink approach to pitching, using six different pitches to attack hitters to keep them off balance more than chase the strikeouts. Civale's strikeout rate has declined each of the past five seasons, and his current 17.2 percent rate is the first time he has been below 20 percent since the 2021 season when he was at 19.9 percent. His 10.3 K-BB percentage is the worst of his career and is a primary driver behind his 1.39 WHIP. 

Civale is not walking batters, but the decline in strikeouts combined with the surge in opponents' batting average is driving that WHIP up. The league is hitting .271 against Civale, which is his worst rate since the shortened Covid-19 season. The Athletics team defense does him few favors as they are a bottom third defense by Fielding Run Value this season. Civale has also only had to pitch four games in Sacramento thus far where he as pitched to a 3.48 ERA compared to a 2.08 ERA in his five road starts. If you really need to use him, it is for the road only because his LOB percentage rate is saving him from further damage at home where the league has a healthy .326/.368/.494 line against him in those four home outings and the Sacramento summer weather looms large.

Bailey Ober

This big man is such a challenge for me to figure out, but that did not stop me from picking him up two weeks ago out of desperation. Ober has bad Stuff+ scores this season and is now throwing his changeup as his primary pitch, and yet has won five of his 10 starts for a struggling Minnesota team whose offense has gone AWOL after a hot start. Ober threw a Maddux against the Marlins two starts ago and survived an outing against Milwaukee in his most recent start. He has also struck out 10 Reds over six shutout innings, held Toronto to a solo home run over six innings, and kept the ball in the yard in four of his 10 outings.

Yet, if you need to "break glass in case of emergency" to use someone on this list, I am not certain Ober's fastball would break that glass. His average pitch speeds make him look like an elongated version of Kyle Hendricks on the mound, or a modern day Chris Young.  His 9.9 K-BB percentage is nearly a five percentage point drop from his 14.3 percent last season, which had been his lowest rate until this season. Ober, back in 2024, won 12 games with a 3.98 ERA because he held the league to a .206 average and had a 20.9 K-BB percentage rate. This season, he is holding the league to a .207 average, but that .223 BABIP is doing some heavy lifting to keep his ERA below 4.00 where the estimators feel it should be with his current skills. The Minnesota schedule over the next few weeks remains mostly favorable, but be ready to pull the eject handle here by mid-June if Ober's skills aren't changing, because the schedule gets much tougher around Father's Day.