Collette Calls: Cardinals Red Tag Sale

In this quiet week of news during the All-Star Break, the biggest development was that the Cardinals have officially hung a sales sign off Busch Stadium, with GM John Mozeliak stating, "we're going to to trade people."

The fantasy relevance of this news is that we should see playing time open up for some players in the organization while a chance of scenery will either impact a player's fantasy performance directly or get them to a different place where they can rediscover (Tyler O'Neill cough cough) what made them successful in the past.

In recent weeks, I looked at some of the pieces this club could put on the block, but I would like to re-hash their current situation here for a better understanding of what the trade market could look like for them.

The club has a list of unrestricted free agents after this season headlined by Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks. Montgomery has easily been the best pitcher of the trio and should demand a decent level of prospect (more on that below). St. Louis will have to create a market for the services of these pitchers, which shouldn't be that hard to do given the struggles many contenders are having fielding a healthy rotation or bullpen these days. 

Montgomery and Flaherty represent two-fifths of the current St. Louis rotation, so trading both guys would necessitate finding something to add to the rotation. Dakota Hudson, a starter last year, was recently recalled to help the bullpen after toiling in Triple-A Memphis for most of this season. He is a known known, and not a good one save those in the deepest of mono leagues or playing in 4x4 formats due to his lack of strikeouts. We should assume Matthew Liberatore would come back up as well to fill a spot, but he struggled in his earlier stint. The point being that matchups against this pitching staff should become more favorable in the coming weeks with the degradation of talent, and hopefully your roster is insulated from needing pitching like Hudson and Liberatore to fill the void. Hicks with his triple-digit fastball is fun to watch in spurts, but it is tough to imagine how a contending team would handle a closer with a 14 percent walk rate. Adam Wainwright recently hit the injured list with a shoulder issue that likely removed any trade value he might have had in any type of role. 

We also should not assume that Montgomery is 100% gone, as my good friend Eno Sarris pointed out on Twitter recently:

St. Louis will have a market for Montgomery's services, and they at least have some leverage in this situation as they demand more than just some name off the 40-man roster that may take a few years to materialize into value. That said, that kind of scenario hinges upon Montgomery wanting to accept a one-year offer to stick around for this same type of scenario next season should the club not perform better. 

Hicks hasn't exactly been piling up saves with St. Louis, but his role will undoubtedly take a step backwards with a trade to a contending team. Giovanny Gallegos would likely resume picking up whatever saves the struggling Cardinals would have the rest of the season. The crazy part with this club is they are slightly above average in save situations, but are well below average in save percentage:

Stratton has pitched somewhat effectively in relief this season and is an easy pickup for a team looking for experienced depth at a low price. Atlanta just lost Nick Anderson to a shoulder issue this week, and Stratton would be a great fit in that role if you ask me. 

The hitting side of the ledger has the currently injured Tyler O'Neill (back) heading into his final year of arbitration and Paul DeJong with a $12.5M club option (which includes a $2M buyout) as the most obvious trade candidates. O'Neill lost his job long ago and feels predestined to be on his way out of St. Louis, where history tells us he will find a new home and flourish like Adolis Garcia, Tommy Pham and Randy Arozarena before him. I'm not joking when I say my interest in "TON" will rise markedly once he finds a new home, as I still believe in the tools even if they come with flaws. The worst current flaw is his current injury status, as a strained lower back has kept him out for over two months now. 

DeJong is not what he was in back when the ball was livelier, but he's currently performing just above league average offensively around all of his strikeouts while still providing excellent defense in the field. The biggest risk for those currently rostering him is what his playing time looks like elsewhere, as shortstop is typically not a position of concern for a contending team. Would the Yankees want veteran experience over Anthony Volpe? The Marlins have had a revolving door at shorstop, but they have also been rather vocal about eliminating strikeouts from their culture. 

O'Neill's likely departure does nothing for the playing time situation in St. Louis, as it's already been crowded even with him spending the past two months on the IL. If anything, it simply eliminates the risks of Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson losing playing time. DeJong's departure could potentially open up a spot for the recently acquired Richie Palacios who is hitting .288/.391/.458 in Memphis and was a high average guy with some speed with Cleveland before they DFA'd him earlier this season. 

These departures also involve players hitting in the bottom half of the lineup, so unless a surprising name is included, I don't expect any remaining Cardinals to see their value increase with a change of lineup spot, but those hitters in the fifth and sixth spots would likely see their runs scored impacted a bit with lesser thump behind them. 

The leading interview has some solid GM speak, with Mozeliak stating he hopes to best position the club for next season, and I take him at his word given the foundational pieces he has at the corner in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado as well as what Jordan Walker could be in the outfield. Goldschmidt's deal is up after next season, so a retooling for next year would have to be aggressive unless some team is willing to throw the kitchen sink at St. Louis for the final bit of Goldschmidt's contract. Unless a stunner like that happens, I expect the trade market in St. Louis to be as unimpressive as the trade market at large the rest of this month.