Both the cinemas and college baseball scene should be buzzing Friday, as we finally get to see the Peaky Blinders movie and also kick off another weekend of action on the diamond.
I've identified my best bet for Friday's game, and with Dax Whitney on the mound it may not be what you think.
Oregon State Beavers (-220) @ UC Irvine Anteaters (+170) | Total: N/A
Given the independent nature of Oregon State's schedule, they won't face many quality opponents this year. UC Irvine is usually a team you can count on to be good, but the truth is they've been a bit of a disappointment thus far. Even still, Irvine is still a solid program that can't be overlooked, but how will they fare against the phenom Whitney?
You all should now know Whitney. I have highlighted him several times, including a few weeks ago for a Friday night piece. He is flat-out disgusting with a triple-digit heater and an array of secondary pitches that draw some of the most swings and pisses since Paul Skenes was pitching for LSU. Whitney has already racked up a nation-leading 54 strikeouts over 29.1 IP, and owns a 0.92 ERA. Suffice to say, Dirty Dax is locked in right now. UC Irvine will be seeing a guy that's not only the best pitcher in the 2027 class, but might be the No. 1 over all pick.
With Irvine facing perhaps the best pitcher in the country, how could they possibly pull this off? Well, it's not because of the long ball. As a team they have hit only four homers this season. The likelihood of Irvine scoring more than a few runs against Whitney is not high. I mentioned during the preseason that Irvine could have a tough time scoring runs, and the harsh reality is that I have been right. They were bound to have some hiccups after losing their four best hitters, but I don't know if I expected things to be this bad.
There are only two players hitting over .300, and those are Zach Fjelstad (.358) and Alonso Reyes (.353). Everyone else is just dust in the wind. Against a guy like Whitney, their best chance is to work the pitch count and try to come up with some timely hits.
With all that said, the reason Irving has a fighter's chance is Trevor Hansen, who has been an ace. He hasn't been as good as Whitney -- who has? -- but he has been stout as well. A 2.47 ERA, 41:7 K:BB and 0.92 WHIP over 32.2 IP keeps Irvine in the conversation against a Beavers offense that's not all that great either. Perhaps the Oregon State lineup has shifted after putting up some big numbers against Xavier and San Diego, but Hansen will be one of the best arms they have seen.
Irvine is coming off a sweep at the hands of Cal State Fullerton. Although CSF is solid this year and making a comeback, they shouldn't be sweeping UCI. At home, in a bounce back spot, I think they have a chance to pull this one out. +170 is definitely worth a look. With the pitcher's duel on the mound, I'm looking at an under if we get anything set at over 8.5.
The Pick: UC Irvine ML (+170 DraftKings)
Follow me all season long on my Breaking Bet podcast and Discord for picks and breakdowns.
