Closer Encounters: Tackling the Most Unsettled Bullpens

Looking back to 2025, a save was recorded in 49.4 percent of MLB wins. Through Apr. 8 of the 2026 campaign, that percentage stands at 57.1 percent — 104 saves out of 182 wins. Since 2021, this percentage has been fairly consistent, falling between 49 and 51.1 percent, so we're pacing ahead of expectations in the early going of 2026.

63 pitchers have combined for the 104 saves that have been recorded thus far. Of those 63 pitchers, 19 have tallied multiple saves. Here's a look at the saves leaderboard through Apr. 8:

For the most part, this leaderboard is comprised of familiar faces, but there are a few surprising names on this leaderboard. We'll cover them shortly.

We're still waiting...

Of course, there are several notable relief pitchers who have yet to record a save thus far. They include:

Andres Munoz, Carlos Estevez, Dennis Santana, Griffin Jax, Abner Uribe, Robert Garcia, Robert Suarez, Grant Taylor, Taylor Rogers, Chris Martin, Matt Svanson, Justin Sterner, Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan.

Munoz is most surprising from this group after he racked up 38 saves last year. Seattle, who has struggled out of the gate with a 4-9 record, have recorded two saves as a team, which have gone to Cam Booser and Gabe Speier, respectively.

After leading MLB with 42 saves last year, Estevez (foot) battled velocity and delivery issues during Spring Training, which carried into his first appearance of the 2026 regular season. He's currently on the IL with a bruised foot — eligible to return Apr. 14 — and might not get the closer role back once healthy, as Lucas Erceg has demonstrated early success in that role for Kansas City.

Meanwhile, Pirates manager Don Kelly appears to be leaning towards Gregory Soto — not Dennis Santana — for save chances.

Fantasy managers (like myself) who drafted Griffin Jax, Abner Uribe or any of the others listed above might be cursing while reading (or writing) this paragraph.

Let's just move on.

Game Leverage Index (gmLI)

Before we dive into the most difficult bullpens to figure out in 2026, let's take a quick look at the current Game Leverage Index (gmLI) leaderboard for relief pitchers. I frequently monitor this statistic, since it measures how critical a situation is when a pitcher enters the game. It's an easy way to tell who is being summoned during the highest-leverage situations. 

For example, many fantasy managers were frustrated when Griffin Jax's first appearance of 2026 came during the sixth inning, but he entered with Tampa Bay leading the contest, 7-5, with one out and two runners on base. Jax ended up blowing the save, but his gmLI measured much higher than it would have if he entered with the Rays losing 12-0.

This example could be a spoiler alert — stay tuned.

Anyway, the gmLI statistics in the table below are through Apr. 8, using data from FanGraphs' 2026 pitching leaderboard. To access this data, simply filter their 2026 pitching leaderboard by "RPs" and select the Win Probability category of statistics. Just keep in mind that the season is very young, and many relievers are still operating with small sample sizes.

While gmLI can also help identify potential closer-in-waiting candidates, it's too early in the season to make any substantial FAAB or waiver investments based off this leaderboard. For example, please don't drop Riley O'Brien to pick up Gordon Graceffo or JoJo Romero. Likewise, don't cut Paul Sewald for Juan Morillo.

Personally, filtering gmLI leaders even further — by team — is what I find to be most useful, especially when trying to identify the closer on teams where there's not an obvious candidate, like the Texas Rangers.

Who is the closer for the...?

I've asked myself this question for more teams than ever, it seems, in 2026. These have been the most difficult bullpens to figure out at the onset of the campaign.

Rangers: Just before the season started, new manager, Skip Schumaker, had this to say regarding the Rangers closer role:

Last year, Robert Garcia tied for the team lead with nine saves and entered 2026 as the draft market's favorite to lead the Rangers in the category. While that is still very much within the realm of possibilities, the southpaw currently has zero saves through five appearances. Same for Chris Martin, who entered 2026 with only 16 career saves through 10 MLB seasons.

So who is the closer in Texas?

I teased this above, but let's use gmLI (through Apr. 8) to help us identify who that might be:

Tyler Alexander recorded the Rangers' first two saves of 2026. His first came during extra-innings after both Garcia and Martin appeared in the ninth, while his second came during a contest where Garcia and Martin were unavailable after pitching back-to-back days. Keep in mind Alexander is pitching for his fourth team over the last three seasons, and the southpaw current sports a 12.0 K-BB percentage and 7.3 percent swinging-strike rate. Neither of those statistics inspire confidence for continued high-leverage opportunities.

Jakob Junis is also pitching for his fourth team over the past three seasons. The veteran picked up the Rangers' third and fourth saves of 2026, recording them on back-to-back days. Junis has been the Rangers' best reliever through the first few weeks of 2026, logging seven scoreless frames with a 4:0 K:BB, 0.43 WHIP and team-leading 1.80 Game Leverage Index. That's enough for me to move him atop Texas' hierarchy for saves, especially since he was recently summoned for a save chance during a game where Chris Martin was likely available. Garcia had already pitched two in a row, so it's fair to question whether he would have received the save chance if he was available. We're not counting Garcia out of the saves equation just yet.

Meanwhile, I'm sure you noticed that Cole Winn currently ranks second on the team with a 1.40 gmLI. The right-hander just converted Texas' fifth save of the season, placing him firmly in the mix for continued opportunities. Winn has gotten off to a nice start in 2026, but don't forget to look beyond his surface stats. While his ratios were excellent in 2025, his 11.1 K-BB percentage, .194 BABIP and 90.5 left-on-base percentage are warning signs that regression may be coming in 2026.

Rays: After Pete Fairbanks signed with Miami this past offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays were planning to deploy a closer-by-committee for 2026. Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger (calf) and Edwin Uceta (shoulder) were named as the expected committee members. However, Jax has struggled at the onset of 2026, while Cleavinger and Uceta are currently on the IL. Under the circumstances, Bryan Baker has seemingly leap-frogged all three in this hierarchy. Baker recently picked up his first save of 2026 and currently sports a 0.25 WHIP and 6:0 K:BB through four innings.

Jax was the draft market's favorite to lead Tampa Bay in saves, and while he currently leads all qualified relievers in gmLI, he's allowed at least one earned run in three of his five appearances thus far. He also sports a poor 1:3 K:BB ratio through four innings. The right-hander simply isn't producing many whiffs on his sweeper or changeup, which are his bread-and-butter. Jax is throwing a harder sweeper too — up 1.5 miles per hour from 2025 — but hasn't found success with the pitch in 2026 just yet. The 31-year-old is also tossing more sinkers and curveballs, so it's worth monitoring the performance of those offerings as the season progresses.

Kevin Kelly currently leads the Rays with two saves... just like we all predicted. I wouldn't count him out of the equation, but right now he's benefiting from increased opportunities while Cleavinger and Uceta unavailable.

Giants: Eventually, leverage roles will become more clear under new manager Tony Vitello, who joined San Francisco this offseason with no prior experience as an MLB player, coach or manager. Certainly, Vitello's early-season deployment of closer Ryan Walker has frustrated Walker's fantasy managers. In both of Robbie Ray's starts thus far, Vitello called on Walker to directly follow Ray — first during the sixth inning and next during the seventh. Vitello indicated both pitchers offer completely different looks for opposing hitters, both in handedness and arm angles. This could be a trend throughout the season, indicating Vitello won't always hold Walker for the ninth inning. This caps his stability atop the Giants' hierarchy for saves, but Walker is still expected to see save chances. He's recorded one save and a hold through five outings this season, posting a 4.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 5:3 K:BB across 4.1 innings.

Since this situation could be fluid based on when Walker is deployed, that opens the door for Keaton Winn, Caleb Kilian and Joel Peguero to pick up save chances. Stay tuned as the season progresses to see how leverage roles unfold in San Francisco.

Athletics: The Athletics closer role has been one of the toughest to pin down ever since they traded Mason Miller at the 2025 deadline. Hogan Harris led the A's with four of the club's 15 saves following last year's trade, but it's tough to project him as part of Sacramento's closer mix for 2026, as he owns a mere 21.0 percent strikeout rate and poor 10.9 percent walk rate for his career. He's also this bullpen's only left-hander and often covers multiple innings at a time. Through eight innings, he has more walks (10) than strikeouts (seven), which isn't usually a recipe for high-leverage success.

Scott Barlow received the Athletics' first save chance of 2026, but he blew the opportunity and was was subsequently pummeled for four runs without recording an out during a recent appearance against Houston. His experience stands out with 59 career saves, far more than any of his fellow bullpen mates.

Mark Leiter recorded the A's first save of the year March 31 versus Atlanta, but he did so against the bottom of the order while Barlow worked the eighth inning of that game versus the middle of the lineup. Since then, Leiter has gone on to record a blown save in two straight outings, leaving his status atop this hierarchy in doubt.

From a skills perspective, Justin Sterner and Elvis Alvarado are appealing, but neither have drawn many save chances to date. Sterner has performed best out of this group thus far, so don't be surprised if he receives a save chances in the near future.

Meanwhile, Joel Kuhnel picked up the Athletics' most recent save, the second of his career. Both Barlow and Harris were used earlier in that game when the score was tied, so it's unclear whether Kuhnel will be a serious contender for ninth-inning duties. The 31-year-old didn't break camp with the A's but had a solid spring (1.54 ERA, 10:2 K:BB over 11.2 innings) and tallied three scoreless innings with a 6:1 K:BB for Triple-A Las Vegas before his recall.

Twins: Similar to the Athletics' closer carousel, it has been difficult to identify the Twins' closer ever since they traded Jhoan Duran at the 2025 deadline. There's also a new manager in Minnesota, and while Derek Shelton typically had a primary closer during his time in Pittsburgh, he may not have that luxury with his new squad. The Twins have recorded four saves through Apr. 8 with all four going to a different relief pitcher — Cole Sands, Cody Laweryson, Justin Topa and, most recently, Kody Funderburk.

While this can be frustrating for fantasy purposes, let's see what gmLI is telling us:

Sure enough, the draft market's favorite to lead the Twins in saves, Taylor Rogers, doesn't appear to be in the mix at all despite having the most experience (89 career saves) and previously serving as the Twins' full-time closer back in 2019. Through six appearances, he's been summoned with Minnesota trailing in the game four times. In his other two appearances, the southpaw recorded a hold coming on during the seventh and eighth innings. Rogers' sinker hasn't been good for a few years now and he's lost velocity (-2.5 miles per hour) on the pitch. He's added a cutter to his arsenal this year, which may benefit Rogers over the course of the season. However, I'd probably cut Rogers if I had him rostered in fantasy. 

Pirates: It was tough to ignore Santana's career-best 2.18 ERA and 0.87 WHIP from last year, as both marks were near the top of the 2025 leaderboard for relief pitchers. It was also tough to overlook the fact that Santana was summoned for 10 of the Pirates' 12 saves (83.3 percent save share) after the team traded David Bednar at last year's deadline. While this gave him some momentum to open 2026 as the Pirates' closer, the 29-year-old has never fit the typical closer profile. He struck out just 22.2 percent of the batters he faced last year, while his 4.13 career ERA and 3.56 xERA painted a cloudier outlook.

While it's clear Santana is a trusted high-leverage arm under manager Don Kelly, Gregory Soto appears to be the preferred closing option in Pittsburgh. Soto has been lights out to begin the 2026 campaign, posting a 13:3 K:BB and 0.68 WHIP across his first 7.1 innings. He has one save and warmed up for a few others before Pittsburgh's offense churned out insurance runs to erase those chances.

For now, I'm still labeling this a committee between Soto and Santana, with the left-hander atop the hierarchy. However, if Soto receives the next save chance for Pittsburgh, that should be enough to label him the closer.

Rockies: Seth Halvorsen led Colorado with 11 saves last season, but his poor spring (4:12 K:BB, 12 runs allowed across five innings) earned him a trip to the minors to open 2026. This left Victor Vodnik sitting atop the Rockies' hierarchy for saves after he finished second on the team with 10 and a 35 percent team save share in 2025. However, manager Warren Schaeffer has used five different pitchers for saves through the first few weeks of 2026, matching the total who tallied saves for the Rockies all of last season. While Vodnik remains atop the hierarchy. having secured one of the Rockies' five saves thus far, this could be a five- or six-man committee for a while. Perhaps someone emerges from the pack, but Schaeffer's bullpen usage has been pretty fluid in 2026.

Jimmy Herget, Juan Mejia, Antonio Senzatela and Zach Agnos have also recorded one save apiece. Senzatela has been the Rockies' best reliever thus far, posting a 9:1 K:BB and 0.41 WHIP across 7.1 scoreless innings, but he ranks fifth on the team with a 1.42 gmLI. Let's take a look at the Rockies' gmLI leaderboard through Apr. 8:

You may recall that Vodnik, Herget and Jaden Hill are currently in the Top-20 of gmLI overall. Aside from Vodnik, who is probably rostered in most formats, Hill might be my favorite reliever to speculate on from the Rockies bullpen. While he has yet to record a save in 2026, he has closing experience in the minors and posted an outstanding 0.76 WHIP and 28:3 K:BB across 17.2 innings at Triple-A last year. He throws an upper-90's sinker and fastball, while his slider has been lethal, producing a 57.1 percent whiff rate thus far. It helps that he's throwing it a career-high 33 percent of the time.

Before you get too excited about anyone from the Rockies bullpen, remember they are the Rockies. There's a reason my colleague, Jeff Erickson, calls them the "Paste Eaters" after all.

Cardinals: St. Louis' bullpen looks a lot different to open 2026 than it did last year, now headlined by Riley O'Brien, Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson. O'Brien and Svanson were the draft market's favorites to lead the Cardinals in saves, but it was Stanek who secured the team's first of 2026. Stanek walked a tightrope, issuing three walks in the contest, but ultimately got the job done. During that game, O'Brien was summoned to face the opposing team's toughest lineup pocket between the seventh and eighth innings.

Since then, O'Brien has recorded the last three saves for St. Louis. He's been their best relief pitcher, tallying 7.1 scoreless frames with a 7:0 K:BB, 0.55 WHIP and 72.2 percent groundball rate. Meanwhile, Stanek has stumbled to a 6.35 ERA and 2.12 WHIP, while Svanson has been even worse with an 11.74 ERA and 2.22 WHIP.

Don't forget about JoJo Romero, who ranks second in the majors with four holds. He has yet to record a save for the Cardinals, but ranks second on the team with a 2.14 gmLI. He tallied eight saves last year and could be next in line whenever O'Brien is unavailable.

Nationals: After Washington won its opening series against the Cubs (in Chicago, no less), they won their series opener at Philadelphia to open the 2026 with a 3-1 record under new manager Blake Butera. Since then, the Nationals have dropped seven of their last eight games, reminding fantasy managers they are likely to finish with one of the worst records in the league by season's end. While save chances may be hard to come by, it's clear Butera prefers Clayton Beeter as his closer. Beeter is the Nationals' highest-leverage reliever by far, according to gmLI:

While Beeter has tallied the Nats' only save of 2026, it's worth noting he sports a negative K-BB percentage. It's tough to put faith in any closer with control problems, much less one on a bad team. Cole Henry, Brad Lord and Gus Varland could eventually find themselves receiving save chances for Washington, but none have much experience in high-leverage. In fact, Henry recently blew a save chance after Beeter was pulled earlier in that game. 

If there's any team to avoid when speculating on saves, it's the Nationals.

Who are you speculating on for saves from these teams? Let me know in the comments!