DraftKings Sportsbook released its 2026 NFL win totals on February 18, and the opening board is stacked with intrigue. Eleven teams opened at 10.5 wins -- the most we've ever seen at that number -- while the Cardinals and Dolphins sit at the bottom at 4.5.
But before placing any NFL win total wagers at your favorite sports betting app, it's worth asking: what does a preseason win total actually predict? We pulled preseason win total lines for all 32 teams across the last 10 seasons (2016–2025) from Pro-Football-Reference, which archives historical odds via SportsOddsHistory.com.
We cross-referenced those lines with actual regular-season records, playoff appearances, and postseason results -- 320 team-seasons in total. The dataset also incorporates odds data from ESPN and nfelo to fill in gaps and verify consistency across sources. The findings should reshape how you approach the 2026 win totals market.
How Often Do NFL Teams Go Over Their Win Total?
Across 10 seasons, teams went over 46.9% of the time, under 44.4%, and pushed 8.8%. That near-even split tells you oddsmakers are well-calibrated -- there's no systematic lean to exploit at the macro level.
The more actionable finding is what happens when you break teams into tiers. We grouped all 320 team-seasons into four buckets by preseason line, and the over/under rates barely move -- every tier lands between 42% and 48%. Vegas gets the number right at every level.
Win Totals, Playoff Probability: Where the Real Edge Lives
The over/under rates may be flat, but the playoff probability gap is enormous:
- Teams at 10+ wins: 68.2% made the playoffs
- Teams at 8–9.5 wins: 46.8% made the playoffs
- Teams at 6–7.5 wins: 24.7% made the playoffs
- Teams at 5.5 or below: Just 9.1% made the playoffs
Zeroing in further, teams with a preseason line of exactly 10.5 made the postseason 76% of the time -- by far the highest rate of any common line. That's directly relevant for 2026, where 11 teams sit at 10.5. If history holds, roughly eight of them should reach the playoffs. But with only 14 playoff spots available, some of those "elite" teams are destined to disappoint.
There's also a subtle betting edge hidden in the tier data. Teams at 10+ averaged −0.16 wins versus their line, meaning the market slightly overvalues the top tier. Meanwhile, teams in the 6–7.5 range averaged +0.16 wins versus their line. Bettors looking for value in the 2026 market should consider fading the top and mining the middle.
Also of interest: NFL Draft Pick Value Study.
Every Super Bowl Winner Beat Their Preseason Win Total
Perhaps the most striking finding from the dataset: all 10 Super Bowl champions over the last decade went over or pushed on their preseason win total. Not a single champion underperformed its regular-season expectation.
The average preseason line for a Super Bowl winner was 10.3. The lowest-lined champion was the 2025 Seattle Seahawks, who opened at just 8.5 before rattling off a 14-3 season en route to their Super Bowl LX title. The 2020 Buccaneers (9.5) and 2017 Eagles (9.5) also entered the year in the middle of the pack before breaking through.
The takeaway for 2026: don't just look at the top of the board. The champion doesn't have to be the preseason favorite, but it does have to outperform its number. Teams in the 8.5–10.5 range with upside -- think the Cowboys (8.5), Buccaneers (8.5), or Bears (9.5) -- fit the historical profile of a team that could surprise.
2026 NFL Win Totals: Key Betting Takeaways
- Fade the elite tier carefully. Teams at 10+ average slightly below their line. With 11 teams at 10.5, several will inevitably go under.
- Target the 6–7.5 range for overs. This tier overperforms its line more than any other. Teams like the Falcons (6.5), Titans (6.5), and Panthers (6.5) could offer value, especially those with new coaching staffs or favorable schedules.
- No team at 4.5 or below has made the playoffs in our 10-year sample. The Cardinals and Dolphins are in that territory — history says those seasons are effectively over before they start.
- Watch the 8.5 line. It's produced two of the last 10 Super Bowl participants and carries a 59% historical playoff rate. The Cowboys, Colts, Steelers, Buccaneers, and Vikings all sit there.
These lines will move significantly before September as free agency and the draft reshape rosters. But the patterns from a decade of data don't change. Use them as your baseline.
