The fourth PBA Tour event of the season, the Groupon PBA Illinois Classic, began with 16 games of qualifying over two days, followed by an Advancers round of six more games, then three rounds of best-of-seven match play. When it was all said and done, five men rose to the top on the high-scoring 43-foot Carmen Salvino oil pattern. We've been posting odds, best bets and trends all week long at @RotoWireBowling on X.
This was the week for the right-handed power players, as none of the final eight bowlers were lefties, and four of the five finalists are two-handed bowlers. Anthony Simonsen, Matt Ogle, Santtu Tahvanainen and EJ Tackett were at the top of the leader board after 22 games of qualifying and advanced (far enough) through bracket play to claim their spots. Shawn Maldonado, who qualified 10th, needed to win all three of his matches to earn his position as the fourth seed and knocked Ogle down to the fifth seed in the process.
As I did last season, I'll analyze every win, spread, total and futures bet available on the BetRivers Sportsbook app and identify my favorite bets for the stepladder finals all season long.
2026 Groupon PBA Illinois Classic Matchups
Shawn Maldonado (-106) over Matt Ogle
The process hasn't failed me yet this season: take the underdog and enjoy the better payout. I'm a perfect 3-0 on these first match bets so far this season, so I don't see a reason to change the strategy now.
This is a rematch of the round of eight best-of-seven match that saw Maldonado recover from a 3-1 deficit to claim his spot in the stepladder finals, while Ogle still advanced as the highest seeded loser from that round. Frankly, neither player has a clear edge, so we're playing the numbers game and taking the player who gives us the better value.
Shawn Maldonado vs. Matt Ogle under 460.5 (-117)
This is the highest total we've seen in a first stepladder match this season, and it certainly is justified. Each of the finalists averaged over 230 through qualifying, and each of them shot at least one perfect 300 game while competing this week.
But we've seen it over and over again: the first game of the TV stepladder finals is a different beast to conquer. Whether it's the pressure or just the normal process manipulating and adjusting to the lane conditions, the first games have been lower scoring. In the first match of the PBA Players Championship, the bowlers combined for 400 total before exploding for at least 467 each of the next three games. The following week, the first match produced 441 total pins, followed by some bigger scores.
We've also already seen multiple games when one player pulls away and chooses to make a ball change in the tenth to see if he can find an even better ball motion instead of sticking with what has been working. A bad look with that new ball could be enough to keep the under in play even if scores are good going into those final shots.
All odds via BetRivers Sportsbook as of March 14th 10:00 pm ET
2026 Groupon PBA Illinois Classic Winner Best Bet
Anthony Simonsen (-106)
Last week Simonsen was the top seed, and I (correctly) advised fading him based on both his past performances in the U.S. Open finals and the unenticing odds.
This week I'm backing Simonsen based on the much more attractive odds and his dominant performance throughout the week. It's rare to see the top seed at better than -110, especially a player of Simonsen's caliber. The two-hander was the top qualifier through 22 games and then cruised through the 24-man bracket of best-of-seven games to claim the top seed, only losing one of nine games.
The sportsbook is clearly leaning into the possibility of back-to-back-to-back Player of the Year EJ Tackett (+325) making a run up the ladder, as the top seed more often than not is listed at -120 or worse, while a third seed like Tackett is usually around +600. Take the value with Simonsen this week and enjoy what is becoming a fun early three-way race for the 2026 Player of the Year title between Simonsen, Tackett and Graham Fach.
For more picks be sure to follow @RotowireBowling and @TheSpatula300 on X.
2026 Groupon PBA Illinois Classic TV Schedule
All times listed are local (Central Time)
Sunday, March 15th
Groupon PBA Illinois Classic Finals (LIVE) on The CW: 3 p.m.
