This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open Round of 16 begins Sunday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. American men will look to continue their strong performance at this tournament, while head-to-head history suggests a couple of favored women could be in trouble Sunday. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Jelena Ostapenko (+550) vs. Iga Swiatek
The key to beating Swiatek is taking away her time, especially on the forehand side. That's easier said than done, but Ostapenko's one of the few players with the combination of power off the ground and good enough timing not to cede court positioning that's required to knock the world No. 1 off her game. In fact, Ostapenko's 3-0 against Swiatek head-to-head, with two of those wins coming in straight sets. The No. 20 seed will be able to swing freely as a significant underdog here as she looks to keep her perfect record against Swiatek intact.
Caroline Wozniacki (+400) vs. Coco Gauff
Wozniacki has already exceeded expectations in her first Grand Slam since un-retiring. The former world No. 1 has a signature win over No. 11 seed Petra Kvitova on Arthur Ashe Stadium in this tournament, and Wozniacki has excelled in big moments, as she's just happy to be playing on the biggest stages again. Wozniacki's counterpunching game should force Gauff into trying to dictate play, which the young American isn't always comfortable doing. The 19-year-old Gauff has a substantial edge in speed over an opponent 14 years her senior, but Wozniacki's edge in experience should help her make sure this match is played on her terms, thus neutralizing some of Gauff's strengths.
Honorable Mention
Dominic Stricker (+550) vs. Taylor Fritz
US Open Odds: Lock It In
Tommy Paul (-295) vs. Ben Shelton
Paul beat Shelton in four sets in the Australian Open quarterfinals earlier this year, and the more experienced of the two Americans is well positioned to come out on top again in this rematch. Since that match, Shelton had failed to win two consecutive matches again for the whole year until his three-match win streak here to get to the Round of 16. All three of those victories came against unseeded opponents, and one was via retirement. The 14th-seeded Paul represents a major step up in level of competition for the talented but raw Shelton, who still has major strides to make when it comes to shot selection and returning serves. Paul is the far more complete player at this stage, having notched a win over Carlos Alcaraz in the lead-up to the US Open, and coming off a convincing 6-1, 6-0, 3-6, 6-3 third-round victory over No. 21 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Karolina Muchova (-600) vs. Xinyu Wang
Muchova has yet to drop a set at this tournament, and she reached the final of the Cincinnati WTA 1000 just before the US Open, giving the No. 10 seed an 8-1 record across her last nine matches. Muchova's momentum is unlikely to be stunted by the 53rd-ranked Wang, who has capitalized on a favorable draw to get here, beating three players ranked below her. Against top-30 players, Wang's just 1-5 in 2023.
Honorable Mention
Frances Tiafoe (-800) vs. Rinky Hijikata
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Sorana Cirstea (+135) vs. Belinda Bencic
This is the only match without a clear favorite Sunday, and the slight underdog makes for the better value here in this clash between the No. 15 and 30 seeds. Cirstea's 16-5 in her last 21 hard-court matches, and four of those wins have come against top-five players, including her 6-3, 6-7 (6), 6-4 third-round triumph over No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina. Bencic beat Cirstea 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 at last year's US Open, but that's the only head-to-head victory in three tries for Bencic, and both of Cirstea's wins came on hard courts as well.
