This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second Grand Slam of 2023 begins Sunday, May 28 in Paris. While 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal won't be playing this year due to a hip injury, there are plenty of intriguing storylines on the men's side. Novak Djokovic will be searching for a record-breaking 23rd Grand Slam title after tying Nadal at the Australian Open, while Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to pull within 20 Grand Slams of a record the 20-year-old Spaniard could one day break himself. Iga Swiatek's dominance on clay has been challenged this year, and the world No. 1 suffered a leg injury when she was last on the court, but she's still the favorite to win a third Roland Garros title on her favorite surface.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the 2023 French Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. With Nadal hurt and Roger Federer retired, this will be the first French Open since 1998 without either all-time great in the draw. Matteo Berrettini (oblique), Nick Kyrgios (foot), Marin Cilic (knee), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow) and Jenson Brooksby (wrist) will all miss the tournament as well.
Multiple notable women's players suffered injuries in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros, leaving their status for the tournament in some level of doubt. Along with Swiatek, Victoria Azarenka (leg), Elise Mertens (shoulder) and Rome finalist Anhelina Kalinina (thigh) fall into this category. All four are more likely than not to play, which isn't the case for Emma Raducanu, Simona Halep or Garbine Muguruza. Raducanu's out through October after getting surgeries on both wrists, Halep just got charged with a second anti-doping violation, and Muguruza hasn't played since January due to personal reasons.
Alcaraz and Djokovic are the top two favorites on the men's side, but a few players from the next tier are capable of contending for this title as well. Swiatek remains the clear favorite in the women's draw, though she's only a slight favorite versus the field. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including those that recently launched in Massachusetts.
French Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+150), FD: (+145), BetMGM: (+140), Caesars: (+120)] - Alcaraz has been the best player on tour when healthy in 2023, and he's getting ready to make his first Grand Slam appearance since winning the 2022 US Open, as an injury prevented him from playing this year's Australian Open. The 20-year-old Spaniard is 30-3 this year and has the world No. 1 ranking heading into Roland Garros. Don't put too much stock into his shocking loss to Fabian Marozsan in Rome, as Alcaraz was likely just unfocused and looking ahead to this much bigger tournament. If Alcaraz is on his game, the only player with a realistic shot to beat him here is a healthy Djokovic. Getting through seven best-of-five set matches without slipping up is a tall order, both physically and mentally, which is why Alcaraz is a slight underdog against the field.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic [DK: (+225), FD: (+220), BetMGM: (+200), Caesars: (+200)] - Djokovic opened the year on a 15-match winning streak, but that elite form now seems like a distant memory. A loss to Daniil Medvedev in the Dubai final ended Djokovic's unbeaten season, and he has followed that up with a mediocre 5-3 record during the clay-court season while battling an elbow injury. Djokovic takes his game to the next level in best-of-five play, but he's starting to show his age a bit at 36 and has slipped to No. 3 in the rankings behind Alcaraz and Medvedev. Djokovic's French Open titles in 2016 and 2021 mark the only two occasions someone other than Nadal has won this tournament over the past seven years.
Holger Rune [DK: (+750), FD: (+850), BetMGM: (+700), Caesars: (+600)] - Rune has enjoyed a tremendous clay-court season in 2023. His 13-3 record on the surface includes a 250-level title in Munich, as well as runner-up finishes at Masters 1000 events in both Monte Carlo and Rome. The 20-year-old Dane has beaten Djokovic, Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud on clay this year, and Rune has moved up to No. 6 in the rankings. He's come a long way since breaking out at last year's French Open with a quarterfinal run as an unseeded player, but Rune's body has let him down on a few occasions this year, so it will be worth monitoring how he handles the grind of numerous lengthy clay-court matches here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+900), FD: (+1000), BetMGM: (+900), Caesars: (+900)] - Tsitsipas was a set away from winning this title in 2021 before losing to Djokovic in the final, and Djokovic also thwarted him in the Australian Open final this year. The world No. 5 has had some of his best career results on clay, making the French Open semis in 2020 to go with his 2021 final, in addition to winning Monte Carlo twice. Tsitsipas is 27-8 in 2023, including 13-4 on clay.
Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+1500), FD: (+1200), BetMGM: (+900), Caesars: (+1400)] - Medvedev's French Open odds got a substantial boost from his title run in Rome last week. He previously struggled on clay but appears to finally understand how to move and anticipate bounces on the surface. Better late than never for the 27-year-old Russian, who has one Grand Slam title and three more finals on hard courts but is just 7-6 at the French Open in his career. Medvedev came into this season with a career 18-23 record on clay, but he's 10-2 on the surface in 2023 as part of a 39-5 campaign overall.
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+1400), FD: (+1500), BetMGM: (+1100), Caesars: (+1400)] - Sinner has already reached the quarterfinals at all four Grand Slams, and he had a two-set lead over Djokovic at that stage last year at Wimbledon before ultimately losing. The 21-year-old Italian also has a win over Alcaraz this year, and he's neck-and-neck with Rune for the second spot among next-gen stars behind Alcaraz. Sinner's all-court game will make him a tough out at Roland Garros, and he can beaten anybody on any given day.
The other two players with +2000 or shorter odds on at least one major mobile sportsbook are Casper Ruud [DK: (+1800), FD: (+2100), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1800)] and Alexander Zverev [DK: (+3500), FD: (+3400), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+3000)]. Both were playing some of their best tennis at this time last year, reaching the final and semifinals, respectively, of the 2022 French Open before losing to Nadal. Neither looks capable of repeating those results in 2023. Ruud's a pedestrian 15-10 in 2023, barring any additional wins he may grab in the Geneva warm-up tournament leading up to Roland Garros, while Zverev suffered a major ankle injury in that French Open match against Nadal a year ago and has yet to regain his pre-injury form.
Sleepers
Andrey Rublev [DK: (+2500), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+3000)] - Rublev captured his first Masters 1000 title at Monte Carlo this year, showing that his blistering forehand can do plenty of damage on the slower clay. He would be fighting an uphill battle against any of the players listed above, but Rublev's No. 7 ranking means he won't have to face any of those guys before the quarterfinals, creating plenty of opportunities for his draw to open up.
Lorenzo Musetti [DK: (+8000), FD: (+8500), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+6000)] - Musetti took the first two sets off Djokovic before running out of gas at the French Open in 2021, and he beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo this year. The 21-year-old Italian has been overshadowed by Sinner thus far in their respective careers, but Musetti's also a top-20 player, and he'd probably be in the top 10 if the whole season was played on clay. Musetti's 39-25 on his favorite surface in his career, and no top player wants to see him in the third or fourth round at Roland Garros.
Arthur Fils [DK: (Not Listed), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (Not Listed), Caesars: (Not Listed)] - Fils is a deep sleeper, as he's listed on only one of the four leading betting sites, but he could be a household name by this time next year. The 18-year-old Frenchman has a game reminiscent of Felix Auger-Aliassime's, and Fils has notched some quality wins over the likes of Roberto Bautista Agut and Richard Gasquet this year. Fils is probably a couple years away from consistently making deep runs at majors, but he has plenty of talent and will be riding on adrenaline from the French crowd, making the world No. 112 a dangerous opponent for anybody at this tournament.
French Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (-140), FD: (-145), BetMGM: (-120), Caesars: (-125)] - After losing just once on clay all of last year, Swiatek already has two losses on the surface this year, so the rest of the WTA Tour should have just a bit more belief this year. One of the losses came in the Madrid Open final to Aryna Sabalenka, and the other came via retirement against Elena Rybakina in Rome. Swiatek suffered a leg injury late in the second set against Rybakina and played until 2-2 in the third before retiring, which suggests her exit was precautionary. Three of Swiatek's six losses in 2023 have come against Rybakina, so the top seed would certainly prefer to avoid facing the big server, but Swiatek's still the clear favorite here after going 18-1 over the previous three French Opens.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+500), FD: (+650), BetMGM: (+450), Caesars: (+360)] - Sabalenka finally broke through at the Grand Slam level with a title at this year's Australian Open, and she's been playing with supreme confidence in 2023 en route to a 29-5 record. The world No. 2 split a pair of clay-court matches against Swiatek leading up to the French Open, and her odds seem a bit understated here considering Sabalenka has been the best player on the WTA Tour this year.
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+700), FD: (+850), BetMGM: (+700), Caesars: (+800)] - Like Medvedev, Rybakina wasn't thought of as a title contender here until she broke through in Rome last week. She has been one of the clear top three players on the WTA Tour this year along with Swiatek and Sabalenka, but Rybakina hadn't shown the ability to maintain that level on clay. She was just 1-2 on this surface prior to winning the Italian Open, and while three of Rybakina's six wins en route to her second WTA 1000 title of 2023 came via retirement, she will no longer be short on confidence heading into this tournament.
Barbora Krejcikova [DK: (+1700), FD: (+1900), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1400)] - Krejcikova's a notch below the three players above her but also has a leg up on all the players below her. She beat both Sabalenka and Swiatek en route to a WTA 1000 title in Dubai in February, and Krejcikova has shown she has what it takes to win this tournament, as her only Grand Slam singles title to date came at the 2021 French Open. She's ranked No. 13, so Krejcikova could have to face one of the top contenders as early as the Round of 16.
There's a large drop-off in title hopes after those four contenders, who have combined to claim every Grand Slam and WTA 1000 event in 2023 except for the Miami Open, where Rybakina lost in the final to Petra Kvitova. The odds don't reflect that drop on all betting sites, as seven other women have odds of +2000 or shorter on BetMGM: Ons Jabeur (+1400), Coco Gauff (+1600), Paula Badosa (+1600), Maria Sakkari (+2000), Jessica Pegula (+2000), Jelena Ostapenko (+2000), and Caroline Garcia (+2000). Of those seven, the most intriguing bets are Gauff -- who has struggled of late but reached the French Open final last year -- and Garcia, who will have the French crowd support and was the only player to defeat Swiatek on clay in 2022. You can find better potential payouts on this group on FanDuel Sportsbook, where only Badosa (+1900) has odds shorter than +2000.
Sleepers
Veronika Kudermetova [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (Not Listed), Caesars: (+2500] - Kudermetova's flying under the radar despite consistently strong results on clay over the past year. The world No. 11 made the quarterfinals at the French Open last year, and she just notched back-to-back semifinal results at the WTA 1000 level in Madrid and Rome. Don't be surprised to see Kudermetova playing well into the second week, and anything can happen at that point.
Petra Kvitova [DK: (+5000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+6000)] - Kvitova's best results over the years have come on faster surfaces, but she has at least proven capable of going on a hot streak and winning a high-level event this year, which nobody else outside of the Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina or Krejcikova can say. Kvitova dropped just one set en route to a WTA 1000 title in Miami in March, which she secured with a 7-6 (14), 6-2 win over Rybakina in the championship match. The two-time Wimbledon champion has played only one clay-court match in 2023, so she'll have to play her way into the tournament, but Kvitova's 17-6 overall this year and has actually reached the French Open semifinals twice in her illustrious career, most recently doing so in 2020.
Sorana Cirstea [DK: (+6500), FD: (+19000), BetMGM: (Not Listed), Caesars: (+8000)] - Cirstea has posted excellent results under new coach Thomas Johansson. She's 16-4 since the start of March, with a victory over Sabalenka and two wins over Garcia. Cirstea's losses over that span came against Swiatek, Kvitova, Sabalenka and Ostapenko, all of whom are top-20 players. The 33-year-old Romanian will be seeded since she's ranked No. 31, which should also give Cirstea a manageable early draw before she sets her sights on more high-profile upsets.
Sasha's Picks to Win the French Open:
Alcaraz's mix of speed, power and creativity is simply unmatched, and he'll be hungry for his first French Open title. If he wins Roland Garros, Alcaraz would have one Grand Slam title and two Masters 1000 titles on clay, which would exactly equal his career totals on hard courts so far. Given Djokovic's questionable recent form and possible injury issues, this is Alcaraz's title to lose. Medvedev's clay-court confidence is at an all-time high, and while Alcaraz has all the weapons necessary to overcome the Russian's defensive prowess, Medvedev could be the guy to step up and take this title if someone else can clear out the favored Spaniard.
At the start of 2023, it looked like Swiatek winning the French Open would be a foregone conclusion, but the gap between her and Sabalenka on clay isn't as large as the difference in their title odds suggests. At these odds, Sabalenka makes for the most enticing title bet in the women's draw, though you may as well throw a few bucks on Cirstea as well given her strong recent results and the 190:1 potential payout on FanDuel.
