This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The day off on the middle Sunday at Wimbledon is no more, as the Round of 16 will be played over two days, beginning with the top half of the men's draw and bottom half of the women's draw. Two of the brightest young stars in the men's game will face off Sunday, while a British underdog will be looking to add to what's already the best Wimbledon of her career. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
With three rounds in the book, players' form at this tournament is becoming a larger factor relative to prior results in 2022 and previous grass-court play. Weighing all those variables, as well as matchups, court conditions and playing style, can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Heather Watson (+160) vs. Jule Niemeier
Both of these players are in a Grand Slam Round of 16 for the first time. The 109th-ranked Watson will have experience and the crowd on her side, as the 30-year-old Brit is playing in her 12th Wimbledon. Watson's willingness to come to net makes her a tough out on grass, and she reached the third round here on three previous occasions before finally breaking through to the Round of 16 this year. Niemeier may have many more deep Grand Slam runs ahead of her, but it's entirely possible the 22-year-old German will be overwhelmed by the moment here in what is just the second Grand Slam appearance for the 97th-ranked Niemeier. Watson won their only career meeting earlier this year in Monterrey, though that match came down to a third-set tiebreak.
Jannik Sinner (+225) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has looked tremendous since being pushed to five sets by Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round, but it's surprising to see him so heavily favored against Sinner, who was widely regarded as the game's brightest young star on the men's side before Alcaraz broke out. As things stand, the 19-year-old Alcaraz is ranked six spots ahead of the 20-year-old Sinner at No. 7, but both players' lack of grass-court experience could be an equalizer in a battle between two young men that will likely spend the majority of the next decade in the top 10, if not top five.
Honorable Mention:
Tommy Paul (+150) vs. Cameron Norrie
Lock It In
Jelena Ostapenko (-500) vs. Tatjana Maria
Ostapenko is looking to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals or better for the third time in her career, while Maria's trip to the Round of 16 here is already the furthest she has gotten in 35 career Grand Slam appearances. The 34-year-old German had also lost in the first round in each of her previous eight Grand Slam main draws, so Maria's run has come out of nowhere. This has been a nice Cinderella story for the 103rd-ranked Maria, but the clock's likely to strike midnight for her against the 17th-ranked Ostapenko, who has gone 8-2 on grass in 2022.
Honorable Mention:
Ons Jabeur (-475) vs. Elise Mertens
Value Bet
Caroline Garcia (-105) vs. Marie Bouzkova
Both of these players have been in outstanding form at Wimbledon, but Garcia's success extends even further. She has won eight consecutive grass-court matches since June 19, claiming the title at the Bad Homburg Open in the week before this tournament. Both Bouzkova and Garcia have defeated a top-10 seed in this tournament – Danielle Collins and Emma Raducanu, respectively – but Garcia's edge in experience should allow her to handle the moment better. This will be the fourth career Round of 16 singles match at a Grand Slam for Garica, and she has won one of the previous three in addition to claiming a pair of French Open doubles titles. Bouzkova defeated Garcia head-to-head on grass last year in their only previous meeting, but the stakes will be much different here, as this is Bouzkova's first time past the second round at a major.
Honorable Mention:
Frances Tiafoe (-115) vs. David Goffin
