This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Yet again, writing up bets days in advance of matches came back to bite me. If I knew Erling Haaland wasn't playing, I wouldn't have taken Manchester City to score in the first 30 minutes. Oh well, we move on. There are just two gameweeks before the World Cup break, so there could be some rotation, though I'm not counting on that for these matches.
Kits & Wagers looked at the biggest matches Sunday, as well as Saturday's Everton-Leicester City matchup. For more bets, Adam is 27-12 on the show.
Record: 31-20-1. Up $1,093 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Leeds United
Leeds moneyline -135 against Bournemouth
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Are Leeds back? I fell into their trap a couple matches ago against Fulham, but Tyler Adams was a surprise absence in that game and they started Sam Greenwood, who has barely played with the senior team, in his place. If you remove that match without Adams in the midfield, Leeds have been solid at home, playing pretty much everyone tight, including Arsenal a couple weeks ago.
I don't think this is a free win and would definitely appreciate better odds, but as long as Leeds have their top squad in this match, they are the better team. The hope for this bet is that their back line doesn't look incapable once again against a Bournemouth side that will likely focus on goals from the counterattack.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Nottingham Forest
Draw +240 between Nottingham Forest and Brentford
This bet is a pure heat check. Any time you bet the straight draw, you're feeling good about yourself and don't have too many worries. Brentford haven't been that impressive this season, but Forest don't have the team to capitalize on that. Outside of the random win against Liverpool, Forest have been pretty bad, hence their position in the table. However, throw in the suspension of Ivan Toney and this feels like a scoreless draw or 1-1 result. Of course, I could take under 2.5 goals or 'No' on both teams to score, but this draw is speaking to me. If you're really on a heater, take scoreless draw at +950 odds.
Without Toney, I don't think Brentford will press too hard, as he's their guy up front and if Mathias Jensen isn't available either, it's hard to see them attacking away from home. This one is a bit of a risk and if it doesn't hit, I probably won't bet another straight draw this season.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Manchester City
'Yes' on both teams to score -105 between Manchester City and Fulham
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Instead of doing a parlay, I'm going back to Manchester City even if Haaland doesn't play. There's a few routes to go in this one. Man City are the best first-half team in the league and Fulham almost always allow a first-half goal. I considered over 1.5 goals in the first half for City at +120 and both teams to score in the first half at +330. However, the injury to Neeskens Kebano is worrying, as Marco Silva doesn't seem to like Daniel James, who is the expected starter without Bobby Decordova-Reid out due to suspension.
My hope is that that absence doesn't change too many things for Fulham, who have looked solid in recent weeks. For the most part, Fulham haven't backed down against anyone and if that's the case, this could turn into the Man City-Newcastle match from earlier in the season (3-3 result). While I don't think Fulham will get three goals, I think they can score, which is all this bet needs.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at West Ham United
West Ham moneyline -110 against Crystal Palace
I don't think Crystal Palace are playing as well as they were last season, which is mostly where this bet is coming from. No matter who starts, they're struggling to take control of matches, especially away from home where they've been bad in recent trips to Everton and Leicester. West Ham aren't at last season's levels, either, but Gianluca Scamacca has been a boost in the attack and it seems like Lucas Paqueta could be ready to start again.
The Hammers have won their last six home matches, including UECL, and I'll ride on that streak to continue with plus odds. Helping further, they didn't need to play most of their regulars in Thursday's match, as first place was already secured in their group.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 15
- Leeds moneyline -135 against Bournemouth
- Draw +240 between Nottingham Forest and Brentford
- 'Yes' on both teams to score -105 between Manchester City and Fulham
- West Ham moneyline -110 against Crystal Palace
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
