Premier League Golden Boot Watch: The Field Tightens

This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.

The Golden Boot odds list on DraftKings Sportsbook significantly tightened after Gameweek 17, as eight players fell out of the offerings: Che Adams, Neal Maupay, Christian Pulisic, Richarlison, Chris Wood, Hakim Ziyech, Michail Antonio and Mason Greenwood, all of whom were +15000 last week except for the latter two, who were +20000. It was particularly tough for Maupay, who scored from the penalty spot against Wolverhampton, his second goal in his last two starts. We have seen players removed and then return (Anthony Martial and Olivier Giroud are examples from this season), but they're still significant long-shots who shouldn't be bet on anyway.

Premier League goal leader Mohamed Salah did not find the back of the net, though he maintained his lead with 13 goals, with his odds to finish as the top scorer moving from +175 to +250. Part of that was his own failure to score, but the other was that Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min and Bruno Fernandes all got on the score-sheet, moving them from +450 to +350, +900 to +700 and +1400 to +1000, respectively. Kane's goal was his first after going without one in four straight matches, a span that saw Son score twice. Fernandes converted from the penalty spot to give him four goals in his last four starts, and he took 16 shots in that run, one more than Kane and 10 more than Son. 

Speaking of Son, his finishing has been incredible this season in terms of shot conversion rate, enough so that there has to be plenty of doubt that it continues. He is second in the league in goals while taking zero penalties or free-kick shots, and there are 25 players who have taken more shots and eight who have put more shots on target. 

To compare him with another ridiculous outlier, Anwar El Ghazi has taken one fewer shot and put one fewer shot on target but has played only 481 minutes versus Son's 1,350.

I've written a few times this season about how good you must have felt if you bet on Dominic Calvert-Lewin at +6600 back in September after he made it as high as +500 last month (he was still behind Salah, Kane and Jamie Vardy at that point), but some people may have been sharp enough to look at Fernandes' +6600 odds in the first week of November and felt they were too high. Since then, Fernandes has six goals in nine games, plus three more in the Champions League (those don't count for Premier League Golden Boot bets), and he is now ahead of Calvert-Lewin (+1200) in odds while being level on goals (11).

Maupay has the most goals (six) of any player no longer being offered odds to finish as the league's stop scorer, with Tomas Soucek, Harvey Barnes and El Ghazi one behind him and also not on the list. It seems unlikely any will take a huge leap, though El Ghazi's current run of form is pretty incredible and could garner enough people to think about betting on him that they start offering odds. Even with that, he'll be a long-shot compared to the leaders anyway.