FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday EPL Targets

MATCHES (EST)

• 1:00 pm: Sheffield United vs. West Bromwich Albion
• 1:00 pm: Wolverhampton vs. Arsenal
• 3:15 pm: Manchester United vs. Southampton
• 3:15 pm: Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace

FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS

Bruno Fernandes, MUN v. SOU ($22): Fernandes is close to a must in the squad, with the only reason not to build your roster around him is that he could potentially be rested, but I wouldn't bet on that to happen. Man United have the highest implied goal total on the slate by a decent margin and Southampton have numerous injuries across the pitch. Fernandes scored and had a 9.3-point floor in the first meeting, which is good enough to back on a slate that features a lot of underwhelming goal totals. The bigger question is if you should stack Man United in a bounce-back spot. It's hard to put too much into that first meeting because Southampton scored twice in the first half then United won it with three in the second after Edinson Cavani ($18) came on after that break. That said, Southampton's injuries shouldn't be overlooked and it could lead to an even bigger advantage for the home side. The problem is that Marcus Rashford ($20), Cavani, Anthony Martial ($17) and Mason Greenwood ($11) each have almost no floor. But as the biggest favorite on the slate, that may not matter. You can use any in GPPs, though doing so in cash games is more of a guessing game. Funny enough, Paul Pogba ($15) probably has the highest floor, but when Cavani braces with two assists from Rashford, and Pogba finishes with 10 fantasy points, you probably won't be above the cash line.

Callum Wilson, NEW v. CRY ($19): Newcastle are slight home underdogs against Crystal Palace despite winning the reverse fixture 2-0, finishing with seven shots on target, four more than Palace. Unsurprisingly, Wilson took part in both goals and seems to always be involved in every Newcastle goal (he has 10 goals and four assists). He has the best odds to hit the back of the net outside of Man United, and he could benefit from the possible return of Allan Saint-Maximin ($13) to the starting XI. Like most forwards, he doesn't have much of a floor, but he's someone I'd risk in cash games because of how important he is to Newcastle. While he's more expensive than a lot of the Man United guys, his production is easier to trust. If Man United scored three goals, there's a chance guys like Rashford and Martial won't even make the score-sheet. If Newcastle score twice, it'd be surprising if Wilson didn't take part in at least one. I probably wouldn't back Saint-Maximin yet because he isn't guaranteed to start, and even if he does, he may only be ready for 60 or 70 minutes. Miguel Almiron ($16) has had a higher floor in recent contests, while Jonjo Shelvey ($11) is one of the cheaper set-piece takers. On the other end, you're banking on goals from Wilfried Zaha ($17) and Eberechi Eze ($13) because no one on Palace has much of a floor.

Bukayo Saka, ARS at WOL ($16): It's a weird slate when I have to back an injured player in a match that has an implied total below 2.5 goals. It's mainly because Saka has been awesome when healthy, scoring at least 18 fantasy points in each of the last six matches, a lot of that from four goals and two assists. In addition to being the main guy on set pieces, he's often getting multiple shots on target. While Wolverhampton won the first meeting, I'm not sure they're playing well enough to bet on again. If anything, this could be another match in which Wolves sit back and play more defensively with the hopes of a draw and possible goal off the counterattack, similar to their strategy against Chelsea a couple matches ago. If Saka doesn't start, I'd swap him with Nicolas Pepe ($17), who has been passable in recent starts for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. He scored against Southampton and had a floor of 14 points against Man United as the main set-piece taker because Saka was out. Arsenal lost the first meeting, but given recent form for both sides, I'd lean on a low-scoring win for Arsenal. It's not a certainty, but it's better than betting on a Wolves player without a floor or whatever happens between West Brom and Sheffield United. Matheus Pereira ($18) will get attention because of recent goals and the matchup, but he hasn't had much of a floor this season, and I'm not ready to bet on anyone from West Brom.

James Ward-Prowse, SOU at MUN ($16): I think Manchester United win this match, but I'll still take Ward-Prowse in cash games even playing as a right-back. No matter what position he plays, he'll take set pieces for Southampton, which is worth something, and if he plays as a right-back, that may even be better for his floor because of defensive stats. The downside is that he doesn't have much upside in a tough matchup. The last time he had more than 25 fantasy points was this matchup when he scored and assisted in the first half. Danny Ings ($18) remains the best GPP option as Southampton's goal scorer, but I'm not touching him in cash games. 

You could avoid all forwards and focus on set-piece takers and defensive midfielders for cash games and hope none of the big names score. If you can get at least 10 fantasy points from all of your forwards and midfielders, that could be enough to hit in cash games, assuming you pick the right defenders and correct goalkeeper. Of course, assuming is never a good thing in DFS.

DEFENDERS

Jayden Bogle, SHU v. WBA ($8): I don't think you need to save money at defender this week, so go after the center-backs with solid floors or a wing-back who adds a touch of upside. That's where Bogle comes in, hitting at least nine fantasy points in each of his last four starts, including seven shots and three chances created. He's accruing a variety of defensive stats and his activity on the wing should lead to some chances near goal against West Brom. George Baldock ($7) is slightly cheaper and in the same position, while Eric Bailly ($8) and Gary Cahill ($7) are the cheapest center-backs. Ki-Jana Hoever ($6) could start again, but playing a full 90 doesn't look like a guarantee for him.

Luke Shaw, MUN v. SOU ($10): I backed Shaw last match and he hit 15.3 fantasy points despite managing one clearance and no other defensive stats. His role on set pieces keeps his floor high with upside, and it's wise to back him if you like Man United on this slate. He's not as safe as the Southampton center-backs, but he's been pretty reliable and I'll continue to back him until his price increases. If Alex Telles ($9) starts instead, you won't have to change the rest of your lineup to fit him in.

GOALKEEPER

Karl Darlow, NEW v. CRY ($8): Either I'm missing something or the oddsmakers are way off, but Darlow is the second-cheapest goalkeeper despite winning and posting a clean sheet in the prior meeting against Palace. He doesn't make a ton of saves, but Newcastle found some confidence last match and that could carry into this one. There are no guarantees on this slate, even if David de Gea ($14) has the best odds to win and secure a clean sheet, as betting against Danny Ings never seems like a good idea. I like Bernd Leno ($12), but I'm not sure he's worth paying up for unless you're backing multiple defensive midfielders.