DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday EPL Picks

MATCHES (EST)

• 1:00 pm: Burnley vs. Manchester City
• 1:00 pm: Fulham vs. Leicester City
• 2:30 pm: Leeds United vs. Everton
• 3:15 pm: Aston Villa vs. West Ham United
• 3:15 pm: Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday EPL Cheat Sheet

THE CHALK

Trent Alexander-Arnold, LIV v. BHA ($6,800): Liverpool are the second-biggest favorite on the slate and Alexander-Arnold has been their best floor player of late because of his shared role on set pieces. While Andrew Robertson ($6,100) is the one he's been sharing with, he's also been outscoring the left-back, making Alexander-Arnold the more desirable play, particularly in cash games. With a number of set-piece takers on the slate costing at least $8,500, Alexander-Arnold provides just as high of a floor but also clean-sheet equity at a much lower price.

MIDFIELDERS

James Maddison, LEI at FUL ($9,200): Maddison is one of those expensive set-piece takers, as he has a near monopoly of those opportunities for Leicester City, who are the third-biggest favorite on the slate playing away to Fulham, who allow the second-most crosses among teams on the slate. He comes in averaging more floor points per 90 minutes than all expected starters on the slate, and he'll surely be popular in cash games even though he's shown he can be useful in GPPs as well, making the score-sheet in five of his last six games (three goals and two assists)

Jack Grealish, AVL v. WHU ($9,400): Grealish doesn't have close to a monopoly of set pieces for Aston Villa, but he has the second-highest floor average on the slate, where he leads all players in chances created and fouls drawn per 90 minutes (for additional reference, Alexander-Arnold has the third-highest floor-point average). Teammate Ross Barkley ($7,000) usually has a role on set pieces when he starts, and there could be fantasy players who go his way because of the salary savings, but the floor is proportionally lower, barely crossing on open play and rarely drawing fouls. Paying up for Maddison and/or Grealish will make it tough to also roster Phil Foden ($8,900), who has been taking set pieces in place of the injured Kevin De Bruyne (hamstring), though Ilkay Gundogan ($8,100) shared them with Foden last weekend. Gundogan's open-play value is pretty limited, though we can't ignore that he had four goals on 12 shots in three games before last weekend's game. Paying up for Manchester City attackers is certainly a strategy on this slate because they are the biggest favorite with the highest implied goal total, but none of their players come at discounts.

Kalvin Phillips, LEE v. EVE ($4,800): Phillips represents a cheaper path to set pieces, and his share could grow if Raphinha ($8,600, midfielder/forward) doesn't start because of a muscular injury. Phillips isn't a bad play even if Raphinha starts, but you have to know going in that he's mostly a defensive midfielder and unlikely to take many shots or create a lot of chances without those dead-ball situations. If you're not a set-piece chaser, Leicester City's Marc Albrighton ($5,600) seems a little under-priced given the matchup, though there has to be a little worry after he played only 45 minutes this past weekend. Otherwise, GPP players will surely try Tomas Soucek ($5,200) for a header goal, while Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($4,200) showed last week he can score plenty of points for cheap without getting on the score-sheet.

FORWARDS

Mohamed Salah, LIV v. BHA ($10,000): Given how expensive the midfielders with excellent floors are, it seems unlikely that Salah will be overly popular in cash games. However, he's an excellent target in tournaments given that Liverpool have the second-highest implied goal total and he has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate by a decent margin over the next highest expected starter. He's coming off a monster game against West Ham, scoring two goals on seven shots (four on target), though it's worth recognizing it was a breakout performance after six straight games (five starts) without an appearance on the score-sheet. Given how spread out the Manchester City goals can be, Raheem Sterling ($8,800) and Riyad Mahrez ($8,500) may not be very popular even though they have the highest implied goal total on the slate, though Gabriel Jesus ($7,800) seems a little under-priced for his goal odds.

Said Benrahma, WHU at AVL ($5,100): Benrahma is firmly behind Jarrod Bowen ($6,600) and Michail Antonio ($7,200) in terms of expected production, but he's also quite a bit cheaper, making it easier to afford the expensive midfielders. Bowen's role on set pieces makes him very viable in cash games, while Antonio is certainly an option there too because of his well-rounded production. Nevertheless, Benrahma may be more popular in those contests simply because he's cheaper. There are also quite a few GPP options in their price ranges, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($6,000) an intriguing possibility since he's fairly cheap for a player with the second-highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate. Teammate James Rodriguez ($8,000) is certainly a good play in a vacuum, though he's unlikely to be heavily targeted in cash games because of his price, with fantasy players potentially seeing Ademola Lookman ($6,900) as a viable option despite being a home underdog against Leicester City. 

Thiago Alcantara, LIV v. BHA ($5,500): There is absolutely no reason for Thiago to be forward eligible, but we play the hands we're dealt, so here we go. He is a box-to-box midfielder who doesn't get heavily involved in the attack, though he is usually good for a couple chances created to go along with his defensive stats. Maybe most importantly, he fills a forward spot cheaply while playing for a big favorite, so we're more likely to see him in cash games than GPPs because of his stronger floor than ceiling.

DEFENDERS

Caglar Soyuncu, LEI at FUL ($2,500): Soyuncu is a center-back on the team with the third-best clean sheet odds on the slate. There's nothing overly special about him other than he's the minimum price for a defender, which could make him a viable piece of GPP or cash lineups. He's a decent target in the box, which could make pairing him with Maddison a nice correlation play, but ultimately you're playing him because he's dirt cheap and playing for a favorite. The better attacking defender from Leicester is Ricardo Pereira ($4,900), who was consistently one of the better floor defenders without set pieces before he suffered a torn ACL last year. However, he is expected to start Wednesday and is a very interesting option against a Fulham side that has allowed the second-most crosses among teams on the slate.

Aaron Cresswell, WHU at AVL ($4,900): There are a number of very viable full-backs on the slate, with Cresswell having the advantage of taking some set pieces. Kenny Tete ($4,900), Stuart Dallas ($4,800), Vladimir Coufal ($4,700), Oleksandr Zinchenko ($5,000) and Matty Cash ($5,300) are all strong options too, though given that many fantasy players are likely to play Alexander-Arnold, there may not be much salary left for another pricey defender. If anything, there are enough good options that no single defender from this bunch will be overly popular.

GOALKEEPER

Nick Pope, BUR v. MCI ($3,600): Pope is the cheapest goalkeeper on the slate because he's the biggest underdog, but we've seen time and again that he can make enough saves to counter any potential goals allowed. He stopped 15 shots and let in four in his past two games, scoring 17.2 and 10.3 fantasy points, respectively. With the potential of not rostering many, or any, Manchester CIty attackers, Pope figures to be popular for those who like to spend down.