DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday EPL Picks

MATCHES (EDT)

• 1:00 pm: Manchester City vs. Newcastle United
• 1:00 pm: Sheffield United vs. Wolverhampton
• 1:00 pm: West Ham United vs. Burnley

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday EPL Cheat Sheet

THE CHALK

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI v. NEW ($11,700): De Bruyne is the most expensive player on the slate, but he's also the highest-scoring fantasy player in the Premier League (by almost 100 fantasy points), including the most floor points. Additionally, Manchester City are -1000 favorites at home against Newcastle, who have been playing better lately but have still allowed the most crosses, second-most corners, second-most chances created and fourth-most shots in the Premier League this season. There are certainly ways to build lineups without De Bruyne, though the discount from the Manchester City attackers to the West Ham ones isn't nearly big enough given the difference between their respective win odds and implied goal totals.

FORWARDS

Gabriel Jesus, MCI v. NEW ($8,500): The pricing on this slate is really ridiculous, and it's not because of how high the Manchester City guys are, because they are always high, it's because of how expensive the non-Manchester City players are, including most of the forwards. Jesus is expected to lead the line for a team that's -190 to score more than 2.5 goals, which has given him -230 odds to score himself, which is the best on the slate, and yet he is $1,000 less than West Ham's Jarrod Bowen, $900 less than Wolverhampton's Raul Jimenez and $600 less than Burnley's Dwight McNeil. Not to take anything away from those players, particularly Bowen, who has scored at least 11.3 fantasy points in six straight games, but West Ham are only -107 to win against a Burnley side that allowed multiple goals just once in their last 11 Premier League games, and that came in a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in the first game after the league restart. This slate is a classic case of having to pay up for the Manchester City upside versus the floors of the other options on the slate, except you're getting limited reward for the risk because of how much salary you have to use for the non-Man City options. Theoretically that should make Bowen, Jimenez, McNeil and Adama Traore ($8,600) lower owned because if you're thinking about Bowen at $9,500, why not just find the $500 to get Riyad Mahrez or even save $600 for Raheem Sterling? 

Michail Antonio, WHU v. BUR ($8,300): Bowen is probably priced correctly for his production, but Antonio profiles very similarly other than set pieces. He's good at accumulating fantasy points with shots, fouls drawn and a few crosses, and he comes in after scoring goals in back-to-back games. The other side of the game has more GPP appeal, with Chris Wood ($8,000) likely to come back into the starting XI to face a West Ham defense that's allowed multiple goals in nine of their last 11 Premier League games, including two in each of their four games since the restart.

Johann Berg Gudmundsson, BUR at WHU ($5,200): Gudmundsson is a bit of a long-shot to start given how long he's been sidelined (and basically out of favor), but he should surely get some attention if he's in the first XI. Burnley haven't been using their subs nearly as much as other teams, but that could change if Gudmundsson is in the first XI purely because of his expectedly low fitness levels. Either way, he makes for a decent cheap forward with a solid floor, and you don't have to take one of the Newcastle guys against Manchester City, even if they can be leaky at times.

MIDFIELDERS

Joao Moutinho, WOL at SHU ($6,900): Moutinho has a monopoly of set pieces for a favored side, and he's nearly $4,000 cheaper than De Bruyne. In fact, De Bruyne is $3,600 more than the next-highest-priced midfield-only player, teammate Phil Foden ($8,100), which makes Moutinho feel like a steal. Moutinho's floor is about as consistent as they come, helping him to the ninth-most floor points in the Premier League and second-most among players on Wednesday's slate. Wolves are also +112 away favorites against Sheffield United, and while this match is expected to be the lowest-scoring of the three, there are still likely to be plenty of floor points scored.

Ben Osborn, SHU v. WOL ($3,100): Osborn is expected to again start for the injured John Fleck ($6,600), and his near-minimum salary would make stacking Manchester City, or a combination of the higher-priced attackers, much easier to afford. Oliver Norwood ($5,000) is probably the more realistic play for Sheffield United set pieces, as he took them all until being subbed off in the 55th minute last Sunday against Burnley, but Osborn was the one who took over after Norwood left. If, for some reason, Norwood is not in the starting XI on Wednesday, Osborn could be a very attractive piece in cash games and GPPs purely because of his opportunity and salary.

DEFENDERS

Erik Pieters, BUR at WHU ($4,000): Pieters could be one of the cheapest attacking defenders on the slate, and that's mostly because he's been playing as a left-sided midfielder while Charlie Taylor ($5,500) starts at left-back. Going back to the topic of ridiculous prices, Taylor, who has reached double-digit fantasy points three times in 19 starts this season, is $300 more than Manchester City's Benjamin Mendy, $400 more than Oleksandr Zinchenko, $100 more than Matt Doherty, $500 more than Jonny and $600 more than Aaron Cresswell, each of whom have hit double-digits plenty of times and actually play for favorites. Then again, none of those players seem necessary, mostly due to a lack of set pieces, so it wouldn't be surprising to see cash lineups mostly fade these guys unless the cheaper options simply aren't cheap enough to get multiple attackers together.

Aymeric Laporte, MCI v. NEW ($3,600): The Manchester City center-backs aren't really attacking players, even on set pieces, but with Newcastle -186 for under 0.5 goals, the three-point clean sheet bonus seems pretty enticing for a player who is also likely to complete close to 100 passes while potentially adding in a handful (in total) of interceptions, tackles won and fouls drawn (Laporte did take two shots just last weekend, but we shouldn't expect those again). It's not much, but neither is a $3,600 salary.

GOALKEEPER

Ederson, MCI v. NEW ($5,900): One way to try to make up for a missed Manchester City goal is to pay nearly $4,000 less for the 10 fantasy points that comes with the win and clean sheet. Obviously, one conceded goal ruins half of that upside, but Ederson is such a strong favorite with high clean sheet odds that he could be worth it for those who don't want to tempt fate with his opponent, Martin Dubravka ($3,600), who leads the league in saves and is facing the team that's forced the most saves this season. Otherwise, Nick Pope seems reasonable at $4,300, especially with how well Burnley have been defensively (at least in terms of goals allowed).