This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EST)
- 10:00 am: Crystal Palace vs. Burnley
- 12:30 pm: Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur
- 3:00 pm: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Dwight McNeil, BUR at CRY ($6,900): The opening match of the slate offers plenty of floor forwards, including McNeil, who has a shared role on set pieces for Burnley and comes in much cheaper than Eberechi Eze ($8,200) and Andros Townsend ($7,800), who generally split those opportunities when they're both in for Crystal Palace. Townsend has struggled to get consistent starts lately, and Eze will surely be popular if he's starting without having to share corners, with many fantasy players potentially filling both of their forward spots with those two and using the rest of the slate to fill the rest of their rosters. This game doesn't exactly scream "GPP Upside," but we at least have fairly cheap goal-dependent options like Matej Vydra ($3,900) and Ashley Barnes ($5,300), the former of whom could even be a cash-game consideration given his very low price against the team that's allowed the fifth-most shots in the Premier League.
Pascal Gross, BHA v. AVL ($8,400): Gross is another high-floor forward who could be popular in cash games because he's likely to have a near monopoly of set pieces for Brighton. His spot in the starting XI seems pretty secure, but there is a risk he doesn't start and playing in the late game can leave you a little exposed, even if Leandro Trossard ($8,100) likely takes on those set pieces for less. This game also offers some cheaper goal upside in Neal Maupay ($6,200), who seems likely to be ignored because he's closely priced to one of the Manchester City attackers.
Gabriel Jesus, MCI v. TOT ($6,800): We can't ignore the team with the highest win odds and implied goal total, but this isn't the Manchester City matchup we've had the past few weeks. Yes, Man City are solid -315 favorites to beat Tottenham, but given the way Jose Mourinho has his teams play in big games, I am under the belief that Man City won't run rampant on Spurs (I realize this could sound incredibly dumb after Man City dropped four on Liverpool and Spurs allowed five to Everton in the FA Cup this week). That doesn't mean we need to avoid them, especially because there could be plenty of floor points to be had, but expecting three, four or five goals seems a bit absurd. Jesus could lead the line, and he's considerably cheaper than guys like Raheem Sterling ($9,500) and Riyad Mahrez ($7,900), but his floor is low and you're usually playing him for a goal. Playing 90 minutes may also be too much to ask, especially with Sergio Aguero ($7,300) potentially available after recovering from COVID-19, but those who trust the odds have to consider the Manchester City attackers simply because they're the biggest favorite.
MIDFIELDERS
Jack Grealish, AVL at BHA ($9,100): Grealish is the second-most expensive player on the slate, but he also figures to be the most popular player in cash games because of his excellent floor. He's actually taken on a larger set-piece share recently, but he's a strong fantasy-point scorer even without those dead balls because of his ability to take shots, create chances and draw fouls. While he ranks "only" 16th in the Premier League in shots, he is first in chances created (75) and fouls drawn (96), and amazingly he has drawn 40 more fouls than the next-highest player; to put that in perspective, there are 97 players within 40 fouls of second place. Needless to say, he's excellent and should be popular even at his price.
Phil Foden, MCI v. TOT ($8,600): While the Manchester City forwards don't seem like they'll be overly popular, at least in cash games, Foden's role on set pieces will likely have plenty of people looking his way. Manchester City's set pieces aren't reliable with Kevin De Bruyne (hamstring) out, but Foden has taken enough that people will look his way, especially since paying $100 more than Ilkay Gundogan seems like a steal (but maybe that's more about my continued disbelief in Gundogan's recent production). Pairing Grealish and Foden together uses plenty of salary, but we're getting floors that are commensurate with their prices, which is why they seem more like foundational pieces we'll work around instead of hoping we can fit them in.
Ashley Westwood, BUR at CRY ($5,100): Westwood represents the cheaper possibilities on this slate, which doesn't say a whole lot. He has a role on set pieces, which is certainly a plus, but he shouldn't be prioritized over Grealish or Foden. Using McNeil in a forward spot likely takes Westwood out of consideration because that seems like way too much Burnley, the underdog in the game with the lowest implied goal total, but for those who don't use McNeil, Westwood is a decent alternative at a cheaper price. The low-salary midfielders on this slate are really weak, so it seems more likely that people will pay up for both spots and try to save at forward or defender.
DEFENDERS
Joao Cancelo, MCI v. TOT ($5,600): Cancelo is the most attacking of Manchester City's defenders, but that doesn't necessarily mean he needs to be prioritized against a more reasonable opponent. He is cheaper than all of the attacking Man City options, so presumably that gives him a path to being usable, but fantasy players seem much more likely to pay down at defense in order to pay up for the other spots.
Aymeric Laporte, MCI v. TOT ($2,800): On the topic of cheap defenders, Laporte fully fits the mold if he starts in place of Ruben Dias ($3,800), who missed out on Man City's midweek match due to a fever. There isn't much of a floor, but Man City have the highest clean-sheet odds on the slate and Laporte's low salary surely goes a long way (including allowing you to stack the Man City attackers). Paying down at both defender spots is possible, with Ezri Konsa ($2,700) a very cheap center-back who offers lineup flexibility in terms of playing in the latest game on the slate.
GOALKEEPER
Hugo Lloris, TOT at MCI ($3,800): Lloris is the cheapest goalkeeper on the slate because he's the biggest underdog, but if enough fantasy players aren't playing multiple Manchester City attackers then getting the save upside from Lloris seems like a viable path. Nick Pope ($4,500) could be popular because he's the cheapest goalkeeper not facing Manchester City, but it almost feels like if you're not paying all the way down then you should pay all the way up for Ederson ($5,900), who has the highest win and clean sheet odds and ... I can't believe I'm actually believing this could happen ... could be on penalties.
