This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It was largely a coincidence that Gameweek 14 featured two blowouts and five different players bagged braces a week after I said to be on the lookout for them. I also ended last week's article with a suggestion to bet Bruno Fernandes at +700 to score at least two goals. We all get lucky sometimes.
The important takeaway is that the holiday season is when bigger and better teams usually separate themselves. In addition to already being better, they're also deeper and can plug and play whoever they want. For example, Mohamed Salah, one of the league's best players the last few years, was rested for Takumi Minamino and it didn't matter for Liverpool. Sure, Salah still scored twice and assisted in 33 minutes off the bench, but Liverpool were already up four goals.
While Liverpool's 7-0 win and Manchester United's 6-2 victory may seem like outliers, they aren't all that outlandish. There are still plenty of players with tired legs and that will lead to some lower-scoring contests, but when the bigger teams put things together against a lower-tier side battling fatigue, blowouts will happen.
LAST GAMEWEEK
Once again, I played things right and read most of the matchups correctly, but a couple late goals took away bigger winnings. Liverpool scored a stoppage-time equalizer against Tottenham to keep under 2.5 goals from hitting, and the same happened when Wolves got a last-minute consolation penalty in their 2-1 loss to Burnley, destroying a +251 parlay. Everything else went to plan, whether it was the midweek parlay or Southampton against Arsenal. I probably should've bet Southampton +1 instead of win or draw at +180 against Manchester City, but lesson learned.
THE WEEK AHEAD
The next two gameweeks are ridiculous. Beginning on Boxing Day, there will be 20 matches played in a span of five days. Coming off a stretch of three games in seven or eight days, as well as midweek Cup matches, there will undoubtedly be tired legs. The problem with betting during this period is that you don't know when managers will rest their regulars, if at all. I could give out a bet for Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace, but then someone like Jack Grealish could rest in that matchup or in Villa's trip to Chelsea two days later. While I'll give my usual plays at the bottom of the article, this is more about finding advantages in the odds.
West Ham are in need of a rebound after Monday's defeat. They and Brighton to score is -143, but you can get over 2.5 goals at decent -107 odds. West Ham will play defensively if they have to, but they're also capable of attacking when their opponents allow it, which is the role of Brighton, who face a jump in competition after playing Fulham and Sheffield United in their last two matches. Both back lines have had problems this season and West Ham have capitalized in those instances, most recently beating Leeds 2-1. When these teams met last February, it was a matchup full of chances. West Ham bagged three in the first half and then couldn't hold on as Brighton equalized with three in the second half. In addition to there being goals, I think West Ham have the overall edge and taking them +135 to win is also viable.
Speaking of rebounds, Southampton are +128 to beat Fulham. I've liked Fulham in recent weeks, but after a couple injuries, it's always possible they return to early season form when they were allowing goals every couple minutes. Southampton are coming off a loss, but they battled Man City and are still the better team in this matchup, even without Danny Ings. Getting plus odds, I'll take the better team to win outright.
If you want another bet at the same time, Aston Villa are -109 to beat Crystal Palace. I'm staying away because Villa haven't consistently hit the back of the net this season and I seem to get every Palace match wrong.
I think getting Burnley at +118 to win or draw against Leeds is good value and I felt that way before they beat Wolves. They may be ugly to watch, but Burnley have taken points in each of their last four matches and Sean Dyche knows how to get through a Premier League holiday schedule. Leeds have injury issues on the back line and there are rumors brewing up about Marcelo Bielsa being on his way out. Even if those aren't true, Leeds are all over the place and it feels too easy to get plus odds for a win or draw bet against them.
Writing about Gameweek 16 doesn't feel right given the amount of expected roster rotation. A lot of teams are playing two matches in the span of three or four days, which is as extreme as it gets. There have already been a ton of muscular injuries and more are expected in the next two weeks.
I like Aston Villa and Everton as win-or-draw plays against Chelsea and Man City, respectively, but neither have the same kind of squad depth, which is worrisome. Those are two bets in which I'd wait to see lineups.
It may be easier to look at overs and unders ahead of time and Leeds are usually the best place to start. There have been at least three goals scored in each of their last four games, including 15 total goals in their last two. A new injury to Liam Cooper is unlikely to help an already struggling back line, while West Brom have problems of their own and will be looking to show some kind of identity under Sam Allardyce. Because of the heavy odds, you can parlay that over 2.5 goals at -175 with the over 2.5 goals between Southampton and West Ham at -124. The Southampton-West Ham matchup is more of a play on fatigue; both teams have had decent starts to the season, but they've also relied on limited roster rotation and a lack of rest could be a problem.
If you're interested in a same-day moneyline parlay, Tottenham -200 to beat Fulham and Liverpool -295 to beat Newcastle should be at the top of the list (+101 odds). It's a perfect parlay for two favorites, as Tottenham and Liverpool both have a bevy of talent to use on a short week, while Fulham don't and Newcastle are still feeling the after-effects of a COVID-19 outbreak.
THE BETS
Southampton to beat Fulham +128
Burnley to win or draw against Leeds +120
West Ham/Brighton over 2.5 goals -107
Weekend parlay: Wolves/Tottenham both teams won't score (-130), Fulham/Southampton both teams won't score (+108) = +268
Midweek parlay: West Brom/Leeds over 1.5 goals (-590), Southampton/West Ham over 1.5 goals (-400), Leicester City win or draw at Crystal Palace (-305), Burnley/Sheffield under 3.5 goals (-530) = +131
Wednesday parlay: Tottenham to beat Fulham (-200), Liverpool to beat Newcastle (-295) = +101
