This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Unlike Bundesliga, there haven't been as many upsets or weird results (or as many goals) in the Premier League. Whereas away teams were securing loads of upsets in Germany, location hasn't played a major factor in England. The better team is usually winning, and even when an upset occurs like Chelsea (+310) over Manchester City, both are top teams, so it wasn't a total shocker. Most of the upsets have involved bad teams when the odds were fairly even, like Arsenal (+160) over Southampton or Southampton (+210) over Watford. Yes, there have been upsets that didn't involve Southampton, as Crystal Palace (+195) beat Bournemouth the first match back.
That's not great for betting, but it's helpful to know that league play isn't much different than before. Maybe more injuries will brew up and that could change the outlook, but for now, it's best to bet these matches as normal,.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Given the weird schedule, I'll try to encompass the next week or so of matches, and that includes multiple gameweeks. There are a few things that stand out in the mid-week matches. Newcastle played Sunday, but they rotated almost half of their regular squad, and I don't think that match will influence the result against Bournemouth. These teams are pretty even and getting Newcastle at +220 to win feels wrong. The other route is to go under 1.5 goals at +180 odds. In addition to Newcastle playing Sunday, Bournemouth won't have top scorer Callum Wilson, while Joshua King could miss out again with an injury. The scoring options in this match are minimal and a scoreless draw wouldn't be surprising.
Also Wednesday, I'm intrigued by West Ham at huge +450 odds to win. Chelsea are playing well, but they had an extra match over the weekend and have performed poorly against bottom-tier teams this season, already losing to West Ham in November and others like Bournemouth, Newcastle and Southampton. Deep down I don't think West Ham are going to win, but at these odds, it's worth a chance.
I think the odds for Spurs (-103) to beat Sheffield United on Thursday are too good to pass up. Not only do Spurs have more than a week of rest between matches, Sheffield United haven't been playing well since the restart, had an FA Cup match Sunday and lost midfielder John Lundstram to a shoulder injury. Maybe this play is too obvious and will inevitably lose, but Tottenham can't afford to slip up, and this is a great spot for them to gain an easy three points in their quest for a Champions League spot.
It's hard to bet weekend matches without knowing what happens midweek, but there are a couple things that stand out: Arsenal play their third match in seven days Saturday, while this game is Wolverhampton's first since the previous Saturday. Wolverhampton's back line has been dominant since the restart, and I think added rest is enough to take them at +115 to beat Arsenal. I'd wait on that number because if Arsenal beat Norwich by a few Wednesday (which I'm betting on), that could push Wolves to +150, which would be a mistake. I'm also not convinced Leicester City are playing well enough that they should be a -180 favorite against Crystal Palace.
OVER and UNDER
I'd keep an eye on goal totals for matches this week because this is about the time when legs could get tired and rosters could be rotated. It's possible that was the reason Watford-Southampton finished with four goals Sunday or it was just because Danny Ings was the best player on the pitch and he wants to win the Golden Boot (+450).
On one end, there are some matches in which you wouldn't touch the over because of the teams. However, because of the lack of goals since the restart, a lot of the numbers seem lower than usual. The over 2.5 goals for both Arsenal and Chelsea matches are around -140, and while those aren't the best odds, they'd probably be higher if things were normal.
I prefer to get better odds in the Sheffield United-Tottenham match. The over/under is low because Sheffield United aren't scoring, but a 3-0 Spurs result is in the cards, which would pay out at +1500. The over 2.5 goals also comes in at +115 odds.
I also think the Manchester City-Liverpool matchup will be more open with neither team having much to play for outside of pride. Liverpool won the prior meeting 3-1, and I think both teams are in play for a couple goals Thursday. These are the most talented teams in the league and I think that shows up for the over 3.5 goals (+143) to hit. Hopefully, Liverpool didn't party too much over the weekend.
THE BETS
Tottenham -103 to beat Sheffield United
Wolverhampton +115 to beat Arsenal
Bournemouth/Newcastle under 1.5 goals +180
Manchester City/Liverpool over 3.5 goals +143
