This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
While there was only one Premier League match over the weekend, the majority of teams took part in the FA Cup. It's the beginning of an extremely busy month for a lot of teams. Sure, some teams may only have four matches in February, but a lot of the big clubs have up to seven matches across 23 days, which is what Manchester United have to look forward to. At a minimum, that allows for a lot of betting opportunities.
I was ready to turn things around in 2022, but January didn't result in a positive for me. At some point, I lost my touch in reading teams, as I completely missed the Watford and Leeds home losses before the break. While I think I'm getting a lot of things correct, I'm putting my money on more inconsistent teams, which clearly isn't a good strategy. Of course, things like that are almost impossible to project. Then again, maybe betting Arsenal to win in a shutout against Burnley was a dumb idea only after watching them play for 90 minutes.
Record: 60-56-5. Up $756 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I bet on a few Newcastle overs following the addition of Eddie Howe, but those ideas quickly disappeared because it was evident they still couldn't score. However, with Frank Lampard in charge at Everton, I'm going back to the new-manager well and betting on goals. I looked at last season to see what Lampard did at Chelsea and it's exactly what I expected. Under Lampard, Chelsea matches averaged 2.95 goals, while there was an even 2.00 goals per match under Thomas Tuchel. That's almost a full goal per match more under Lampard and I think he'll continue that same attacking approach at Everton with a 4-3-3 or 3-4-3 formation. My best bet for Kits & Wagers was over 2.5 goals in their FA Cup match and that hit at -105 odds in a 4-1 win.
Even better, Dominic Calvert-Lewin should be back for this match, while Richarlison looks to be close to form, something neither of them have been able to say the majority of the season. I know Newcastle aren't scoring goals, but I think two managers who want to attack going against each other should lead to goals and that's why I'm taking over 2.5 goals at -110.
I was ready to take the under between Burnley and Manchester United and then looked at the prior meeting and Burnley's general inconsistencies all season. While I don't think this match will go 3-1 again, I'm not betting on it.
The busiest day for Gameweek 24 is Wednesday and there's a clear four-team parlay to gamble on if you like Norwich City, Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa. But hey, I'm not risking my record on a ridiculous parlay. Instead, I'll take it game-by-game.
Manchester City and Brentford played each other in late December and while it was a close match, the home team couldn't sniff the opposing net. Now, away from home where Brentford have struggled all season, they face a full-strength Man City side. While City couldn't find any openings in that first meeting, I think that changes at home. Considering it's -175 for City to score more than 2.5 goals, it only makes sense to take them at -2.5 for -105 odds. Brentford managed .26 expected goals in that prior meeting and while they were missing some players, I'm not sure how much that will matter in a rematch.
I think the odds between Norwich City and Crystal Palace are incorrect. Norwich are fresh off two wins (three if you include FA Cup) and Palace have been a completely different team away from home all season. Outside of the random Man City win that no one can explain, they have four points from nine trips. They've had a tough schedule, but they drew Burnley 3-3 and lost 1-0 at Leeds. I think this is a prime spot for Norwich to add more points and you can get them +145 on a draw no bet. While I think they can win, I don't want to live with betting the Norwich moneyline after Palace score two goals in the final 10 minutes after Wilfried Zaha subs in.
I really want to bet on Liverpool, but recent results have me scared, as does the possible continued absence of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. Even then, Leicester won this meeting 1-0 roughly a month ago and that was against Salah and Mane. I love betting against this Leicester back line, but they seem to have an edge somewhere in this matchup.
Instead, I'll rely on what has maybe been the most consistent thing in the league this season, Wolverhampton's defense. Wolves have allowed 16 goals in 21 matches and while recent results between these teams has oddly pointed to goals, I'm not sure that continues. Arsenal will be rested, but it's not like they are in form, failing to score in their last four matches, including the FA Cup loss to Nottingham Forest. This is going to be an ugly match with few opportunities and that makes 'No' on both teams to score an easy play at -115. Since under 2.5 goals is -160, that's the logical route. I also like Wolves +140 on a draw no bet, though I think both teams are in play for the 1-0 win.
