This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
In addition to COVID-19 being an issue, most teams have only one or two full days of rest going into Gameweek 20. That makes it harder to project matches because it's almost impossible to project starting XIs. Managers could either run their regulars into the ground or rotate players who haven't played a minute in a month to help the regulars get some rest. Both situations are likely and there's no use trying to project them. That being the case, I'm the idiot with a betting article and I'm not taking the week off.
Record: 54-45-5. Up $1,208 on $100 bets.
The Plays
Tottenham have probably played more than anyone the last two weeks, as this will be their fourth match in 10 days. The main thing is that they've barely rotated, so even if they don't rotate again, I'm not sure their studs will be at full fitness. The other part is that they haven't had an away match since… Nov. 25. That's a crazy six-straight matches at home when you include UEFA play.
As for Southampton, they are quietly deep and even rotated a few positions in their 3-2 win at West Ham. They've taken points in all but one home match this season and I think they can get at least a point again. You can get them draw no bet at +155, but I'm going the slightly safer route with Southampton +.5 at -120. Tottenham are playing well, but I wonder if the absence of their home crowd and heavy schedule will get them in this one.
The Crystal Palace match is most likely to be postponed, as they didn't have a bench due to COVID-19 last match and there's a chance a couple more players test positive. Their request to postpone the Tottenham match was denied and they didn't look good with Wilfried Zaha getting sent off in the first half. If the same players are out as that contest, they'll be forced to play some new faces and I'm not sure they should be -160 against anyone. I don't like Norwich and this match maybe won't be played, so this is more of a Covid bet with Norwich +1 at -130.
*I removed Norwich as one of my plays after Teemu Pukki and Max Aarons were dropped from the team because of injury/illness.
I was on the Leicester over last match and unfortunately I didn't make it one of my bolded plays despite suggesting the over 4.5 or over 5.5 goals. Leicester continue to have massive defensive issues and that's not going to change against Liverpool. Maybe they take more of a defensive approach to not allow six goals again, but I'm not sure Brendan Rodgers wants to remove the attacking aspect from his side.
Liverpool are rested and this will basically be their Boxing Day match since their actual one was postponed. You can get Liverpool over 2.5 goals at -105, but for when this match finishes 2-2, I'd rather go over 3.5 goals at -105. The only way this match doesn't go over is if Leicester play unlike themselves and don't press as much on the counter. Considering they've allowed multiple goals in six of their last seven matches in all competitions, I wouldn't bank on them changing their strategy. These teams played last week in the League Cup with Leicester using most of their regulars and once Liverpool went attack mode after a couple substitutions, they got a late equalizer in a 3-3 result. In case that happens again, over 5.5 goals is +500.
I was going to suggest a Chelsea bet, but they are a suspiciously low favorite at -230 against Brighton and I'm going to avoid that match. Instead, I'll again back Manchester City, who have won their last three matches by a combined 14 goals. Things haven't gone as well for Brentford and while they've had their moments, I'm not sure playing on a short week against Man City will help their problems. It also looks like Rico Henry could miss out again with Bryan Mbeumo a major doubt. That points to Man City -2.5 at +150, mainly because they'll have an almost fully rested Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus ready to start.
I have no idea who will be available for Everton so I'm not betting that match, though I'd lean Newcastle. I'm not sure Everton should be -110 against anyone right now. I'll also avoid betting Man United at -300 because drawing Burnley is definitely in play.
