This article is part of our Best Bets series.
Now that the dog days of summer are behind us and the major European leagues are tantalizingly close, soccer betting is going to be a major source of income for casinos and online sportsbooks. Our mission with this series is to make you a more informed bettor and to not only give you the best bets to make on a given weekend among top leagues, but also to encourage you to avoid the typical pitfalls that the average soccer bettor may walk into. We will have some wonderful Premier League and Ligue 1 action to dive into next week, but in the meantime I would like to introduce this series with a couple introductory reminders about betting soccer and give out a few of my favorite futures bets for the Olympics and Premier League.
You should be familiar with basic soccer terminology and betting practices, but if you have any questions as to what the bets refer to you can contact me on Twitter, @0henne and I would be glad to help. Odds are written in American form, and online tools are available to convert these into decimal (European) or fractional (UK). A bet that has a - price (a favorite) will refer to how much needs to be risked to win $100, while a + price (underdog) will refer to the payout if $100 is staked. This does not mean you need to stake $100 per bet, this is simply for tracking purposes as the tips in this column
Now that the dog days of summer are behind us and the major European leagues are tantalizingly close, soccer betting is going to be a major source of income for casinos and online sportsbooks. Our mission with this series is to make you a more informed bettor and to not only give you the best bets to make on a given weekend among top leagues, but also to encourage you to avoid the typical pitfalls that the average soccer bettor may walk into. We will have some wonderful Premier League and Ligue 1 action to dive into next week, but in the meantime I would like to introduce this series with a couple introductory reminders about betting soccer and give out a few of my favorite futures bets for the Olympics and Premier League.
You should be familiar with basic soccer terminology and betting practices, but if you have any questions as to what the bets refer to you can contact me on Twitter, @0henne and I would be glad to help. Odds are written in American form, and online tools are available to convert these into decimal (European) or fractional (UK). A bet that has a - price (a favorite) will refer to how much needs to be risked to win $100, while a + price (underdog) will refer to the payout if $100 is staked. This does not mean you need to stake $100 per bet, this is simply for tracking purposes as the tips in this column will be recorded. Your stake should be whatever you feel you can afford to lose on any given day and it is the reader's responsibility to practice adequate bankroll management.
Most bets will be placed on three markets: thee-way moneyline, goal spread or total. Three-way moneyline is a simple bet that will be placed on one of only three outcomes: the home team will win, the away team will win or the two teams will draw. A goal spread indicates that you are betting on one team to win by enough goals to cover the spread, such as a point spread in basketball or football. In a total bet, you will be wagering on whether the total goals in the match will be over or under the set number. Any prop bets made that differ will be thoroughly explained.
Let's get to it!
MEN'S OLYMPIC SOCCER
Group B Winner: Colombia +130
When looking at the makeup of the four groups and the pricing assigned to each favorite, it's hard to image the same oddsmakers that were responsible for hanging a -225 favorite on Germany in the obligatory 'group of death' (everyone tournament needs one!) can picture Colombia being challenged in one of the weaker groups. Part of the issue is much too much credit being given to Sweden (+270) based off of last year's improbable U21 championship. In truth, only six of those players will be on this squad, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is not present, and the overage players selected are puzzling selections at best. Nigeria and Japan are too weak in their own end, and while Japan has the firepower to advance past Sweden, I am finding it difficult to see Colombia encountering any resistance at this stage of the tournament, especially with the presence of Dorlan Pabon as an overage player. He is simply too experienced and too creative to be contained at this stage.
Tournament Winner: Mexico +1200
Breaking down the five main contenders in this edition of the Olympics is anything but straightforward, but when factoring in the odds, Mexico should be the clear betting favorite. Argentina (+600) experienced so much turmoil after the dramatic Copa America Centenario loss that there was serious consideration given to not sending a team to Rio, and even once their participation was confirmed, they needed so many new players that clubs were simply not prepared to send key pieces away. This team is ill-prepared to make a deep run, as is their group-mate Portugal (+1000) who, like Sweden, have used their overage selections very curiously and are going to be relying too heavily on a core of inexperienced players that have yet to break through. Germany (+600) have done the opposite, stocking up on a solid core of overage players and young players who have experience being capped in senior levels. The largest issue with Germany is their draw: as noted above, Group C may turn into a dogfight with Mexico and South Korea fielding strong squads, and if everything follows the odds, their reward for a good run would be a possible semi-final matchup with Brazil. Brazil is a very strong squad, the host nation, and the undeniable favorite to win this tournament. However, given the strength of Mexico, Brazil is heavily overpriced at -105 and offers no value compared to the incomprehensible +1200 odds that Mexico have received.
PREMIER LEAGUE
League Winner: Manchester City (+250)
City are the oddsmakers favorite, and I would have to imagine the favorite in popular consensus. It is a safe assumption that the change to Pep Guardiola will bring a bit more urgency in the attacking third, and City have the explosive attack to exploit this system. This may be the best price we are going to see on City, so jump on this train quickly before the season opens with home matches against Southampton and Sunderland that should allow them to get off to a quick start.
Given the success of Leicester City, it is understandable the the betting public has a case of underdog fever this season. I would highly recommend avoiding this, however, as there is no long-odds team with a realistic chance of challenging. The longest odds that I am looking to seriously invest in belong to Chelsea (+500) and Tottenham (+900). Chelsea certainly cannot be any worse than last year and once they parted ways with Jose Mourinho, actually began to show signs of life. I wouldn't expect anything less than another title challenge, and the same goes for Spurs, who challenged Leicester right up until the end. The encouraging sign is that they retain their impressive young core, however, it has been pointed out numerous times that this will be their first Champions League appearance since 2011 and can be very distracting.
Similar bets with good value:
Man City top at Christmas +200
Sergio Aguero top goalscorer +350
Spurs top 4 finish +100
Man City/Man Utd top 2 exact order +900
Relegation: West Bromwich Albion (+225)
We are beginning to see enough examples of teams being promoted and staying around to finally get the 'revolving-door' idea out of our heads. The gap in competition is shrinking and the newly promoted teams are ready to compete right out of the gate, which makes it tougher for squads like West Brom to keep their head above water following a rough season and uneventful transfer window. Lost in the shuffle of the Leicester City hype is the steady performance of Watford, who were promoted and really never in danger of being relegated. Hull City, still without a manager, may not be the success story but Burnley and Middlesbrough are certainly capable of competing for a top 15 spot. Crystal Palace made some unique transfer moves and Sunderland should be well improved under a manager of David Moyes' quality, leaving West Brom separating further from the pack. As we saw with Aston Villa last season, if they fall behind early they may never recover; they certainly don't want to be on the bubble in April still having to face Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City to end their season.
Similar bets with good value:
Hull City to finish bottom +225
Middlesbrough to stay up -185
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
MLS Cup Winner: FC Dallas (+700) or Colorado Rapids (+800)
A consistently overlooked wrinkle in the Major League Soccer season is the desire to be uniquely American and focus on the nemesis of many managers: playoffs. Managers build for a season-long battle only to have their cup chances hinge on a few rounds of head-to-head battles. The beauty of the postseason in American sports is that anyone can beat anyone, evidenced by last season's Liga MX playoffs where Pachuca stunned Monterrey, who had won a tournament-record 17 matches. FC Dallas has just the firepower to come out and win any match on any given day, as evidenced by their clean air at the top of the Western Conference standings. They are a definite Supporters Shield favorite and even though the playoffs will be a defensive affair, they should be able to score their way out of trouble. If you want defense, however, look towards Colorado. Another team that sits above the MLS Cup favorite Los Angeles Galaxy in the Western Conference, the Rapids simply do not lose. I say this after suffering a 5-1 beatdown in the Bronx, but this was just their third loss all season and look poised to make a deep run.
Guarantees cannot be made as to the current price. The information provided in this article is intended to be used for educational purposes only and as such, the author nor content provider is responsible for any money won or lost as a result of sports betting. Safe and responsible betting is encouraged. The National Problem Gambling Helpline can be reached at 1-800-522-4700.
