QuikTrip 500 Preview: Heading Back East

With the high thrills and excitement of the Phoenix race now well in our rearview mirror, we head  east this weekend.  The West Coast swing is now completed and we begin to enter the spring portion of the schedule.  NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the one and only visit of the 2020 season.

The lightning-fast quad oval will play host to the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Sunday afternoon.  Racing at Atlanta is a completely different game than the just-completed race at Phoenix.  The one thing we can rely on is that this typical cookie cutter oval has sister ovals in the NASCAR Cup Series.  Tracks like Charlotte, Texas and even Las Vegas and Kansas bear some resemblance to Atlanta.  This will be just our second cookie cutter oval race of the season, so practice this week will play a huge role in determining which drivers are off to a good start in this style of racing.  To a lesser degree, the historical statistics of Atlanta will also play a part for identifying those teams to target in fantasy racing lineups.  Atlanta Motor Speedway has a good group of drivers that dominate each time we visit central Georgia.  The table below illustrates this group well.  Considering that the 1.5-mile speedway is the type of track that NASCAR competes on the most, the trends and marks set at AMS will need to be kept in our memory going forward.  Those drivers that pound the pavement in Atlanta will likely be setting the stage for success at other early-season intermediate ovals such as Texas, Charlotte and Kansas. 

The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  This event should continue to set the tone for these style ovals for at least the first third of the season.  While Atlanta has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Texas and Charlotte, there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons.  Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent loop statistics of AMS and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend's race.  Since this is the second intermediate oval race of the season, we'll be drawing on some information from last season and beyond at Atlanta.  So keep that little tidbit in mind when reviewing these electronic scoring statistics.  Here are the loop stats for the last 21 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

With Brad Keselowski's victory in this event one year ago, Ford swept to its third-consecutive victory at the Atlanta oval and Keselowski came away with his second win in the last three Atlanta races.  This brief streak of dominance for Ford will be put to the test this weekend.  Surging teams from both the Chevrolet and Toyota stables will look to put an end to Ford dominance at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  Kyle Busch was our last Atlanta victor for Toyota (2013) and Jimmie Johnson was our last for Chevrolet (2016).  While it's not as likely that either of these two will visit victory lane this Sunday, there are several suitors from both these brands that will be more than capable of breaking the Ford streak.  If Las Vegas showed us anything a couple weeks ago, it was that Ford and Chevrolet seem to have a bit of the upper hand on Toyota right now in terms of intermediate oval racing.  We'll see if that trend holds up at Atlanta. 

We believe Atlanta Motor Speedway will be a bit of field equalizer and somewhat different than most of the other 1.5-mile tracks on the circuit.  The primary reason is simply because of tire wear.  The racing surface at Atlanta Motor Speedway is very abrasive and bumpy.  It causes drivers to handle very loose race cars mere laps into a green flag run.  Most of the other similar ovals have newer, less abrasive surfaces so the tires don't fall off as quickly as they do in Atlanta.  We saw 26 lead changes in this event one year ago, which was a slight increase over the 24 we saw in 2018, and more in line with recent historical norms at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  Still, with stage racing being in play, the right fuel and tire strategy here could set up anyone to possibly dominate and win the day.  We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star has been dialed-in at Atlanta Motor Speedway the last three seasons.  Keselowski won this event three years ago, finished runner-up to Kevin Harvick two years ago, and won this event one year ago.  That gives the driver of the No. 2 Ford and incredible string over the last three Atlanta races.  During the three-race span Keselowski has led 92 laps at the fast Georgia oval.  This mini-streak of dominance has extended his current Top-10 streak at AMS to five races.  Keselowski has had pretty good cars the first four events of 2020, and now he's coming to a track that he's had pegged to the wall the last three seasons.  Odds are very good for a victory this Sunday afternoon.      

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star is a two-time Atlanta winner, and most recently in 2018 at the mid-Georgia speedway.  In this event one year ago, the driver of the No. 4 Ford led 45 laps and battled with Brad Keselowski to finish fourth in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.  The veteran driver carries a strong five-race Atlanta Top-10 streak into Sunday's 500-mile battle.  Harvick now has nearly 1,200-career laps led at this facility with a whopping 900+ of those coming in just his last six starts.  Right now no other drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series are more dominant at Atlanta than Harvick and Keselowski.  We expect this duo to be top contenders and setting the pace this weekend.

Joey Logano – The Phoenix victory this past weekend gives Logano two wins on the young season, and he's out of the gates strong in 2020.  The veteran Penske Racing driver will look to keep it rolling at Atlanta this weekend.  The No. 22 Ford team has grabbed one pole position, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in their last seven Atlanta starts.  Those efforts have bolstered what was a poor record at the Atlanta oval prior to 2012 for this Penske Racing star.  Logano won our most recent intermediate oval race at Las Vegas a few weeks ago, and he has a three-race Top-5 streak on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last November's Texas race.  This could be the weekend where Logano picks up his first-career Atlanta victory.       

Chase Elliott – Elliott has had potential race-winning cars in three of the first four races this season.  He should bring that same speed to Atlanta this weekend in his No. 9 Chevrolet.  Elliott loves his home state track.  He has Top-10 finishes in three of his four Cup Series starts at Atlanta entering this Sunday's action.  Elliott is very familiar with his home state oval.  The Hendrick Motorsports star led 70 laps at the similar oval in Las Vegas recently but bad luck would derail his chances of winning that afternoon a couple weeks ago.  Elliott and his crew chief, Alan Gustafson, understand how important tire wear is at this facility, and they should have a great plan in place.  This driver and team has to be very optimistic about their chances in Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 18 Toyota will be looking to build on the momentum of his Top-3 finishes the last two weeks.  Last season Busch collected one win and eight Top-10 finishes on the intermediate ovals.  They were not his best tracks, but Busch was a very consistent performer on the cookie cutter ovals.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time Atlanta winner, including this event in 2013.  While AMS has been a mixed bag for Busch over the years, right now he's performing as well as any time in his career at this facility.  Four of Busch's last six starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway have fetched Top-10 finishes.  While he's not typically been a big lap leader, it has boosted his career Top-10 rate at AMS to 38-percent.   

Martin Truex Jr. – One of the most dominant drivers of recent seasons on the 1.5-mile oval circuit has been Truex.  He grabbed two victories, and eight Top-10 finishes on those tracks in 2019 alone.  The veteran driver has seen his level of performance come to life at Atlanta Motor Speedway in recent seasons.  Truex rides a five-race Atlanta Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  His start in this event one year ago yielded a runner-up finish, which is his career-best mark at Atlanta.  The No. 19 team's luck of late has been incredibly bad, but if there's a speedway that can get Truex back on track its Atlanta Motor Speedway.  He has been really close to nabbing his first Atlanta victory in the last few attempts, and this could be the weekend where he finally breaks through. 

Kyle Larson – The central Georgia speedway has been an oval to Larson's liking through his first six seasons of competition at NASCAR's top level.  The Chip Ganassi Racing star has three Top 10's, including one runner-up finish, in his first six starts at AMS.  It works out to a nice 13.8 average finish for the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet.  Larson led a whopping 142 laps in last year's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, but the breaks wouldn't go his way and he finished 12th in this event one year ago.  Given his current momentum we expect a rebound performance this Sunday.  Larson has always been a top performer in NASCAR's top division on intermediate ovals, and we expect to see that skill and performance on display in this 500-mile battle.        

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing star is a three-time Atlanta winner and he has over 800 laps led for his career at this facility.  Busch has been strong with all the different race teams he's competed with over the years at this Georgia speedway.  Aside from the victories, he's posted 14 Top-10 finishes in 28 starts at AMS.  That checks in at a respectable 50-percent rate, and that's been rising in recent years.  Busch has eight Top 10's in his last 10 visits to Atlanta for a sizzling 80-percent rate.  He is coming off third- and sixth-place finishes the last two weeks at Fontana and Phoenix, so the No. 1 Chevrolet team is surging coming to the very likeable Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. seem to be having a contest right now.  Who can take the fastest cars to the worst finishes because of bad luck?  That's not really a contest, but you would think it was based on the struggles of the No. 19 and No. 12 teams to finish races right now.  Blaney will look to shake that off in this Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.  The Penske Racing youngster will be making his fifth-career start at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend.  To this point, the results have not come.  However, Blaney did lead 41 laps in this event one year ago and show good speed before bad luck and the poor finish.  Right now the risks are pretty big with this driver and team, but the rewards could be also if Blaney shakes his slump at AMS this Sunday. 

Jimmie Johnson – The five-time Atlanta winner checks in on the sleepers list this week, although Johnson probably has a lot more upside than a typical sleeper.  Case in point would be his recent start at the similar sized oval in Las Vegas.  Johnson wowed the crowd with his strong fifth-place performance that afternoon a couple weeks ago.  A glimpse of the seven-time champion seems to be returning this season.  As for Atlanta Motor Speedway, two of Johnson's five wins here have come quite recently.  Johnson took back-to-back wins at the Georgia oval in 2015 and 2016.  Those efforts also boosted his career Top-10 rate at the track to an impressive 57-percent.  The last three starts at AMS have been nothing special for the No. 48 team, but we're willing to bet this time it will be dramatically different for Johnson. 

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been steady on the intermediate ovals dating back to late last season.  His last five starts on these size ovals has netted one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes.  Bowman has four-career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and last season's 15th-place finish has been his career-best effort to this point.  Bowman and the No. 88 team have improved each time they've visited this Georgia speedway, and that should be the case again this Sunday afternoon.  The team has shown good speed the last three races and have grabbed one win and three Top-15 finishes during the span.  Bowman looks like a driver with a lot of upside and potential for the 500-mile race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.    

Aric Almirola – The 13-season veteran is riding a two-race Top-10 streak coming to Atlanta this week.  Almirola's consecutive eighth-place finishes at Fontana and Phoenix have propelled him inside the Top 10 of the driver standings.  The Stewart Haas Racing driver has nine-career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and just two Top-10 finishes to his credit.  However, don't let that trick you into not using the South Floridian in this week's fantasy racing contests.  Almirola was dialed-in at AMS last season.  He piloted the No. 10 Ford Mustang to the pole, 36 laps led and a respectable eighth-place finish.  The notes in the black book from that outing should come in pretty handy this weekend.  This currently surging driver and team should be a very safe fantasy racing play in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Clint Bowyer – Despite some lackluster career stats racing at Atlanta's lightning-fast oval, we believe Bowyer is a good fantasy racing candidate this weekend.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford has had good speed to start the season.  One Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes have been a good sign.  AMS gives him an opportunity to build on last weekend's fifth-place finish at Phoenix.  Since moving to the Stewart Haas Racing team, Bowyer's Atlanta numbers have been on the move, and in the right direction.  His last three starts with the team have netted 11th-, third- and fifth-place finishes at Atlanta.  The veteran driver flirted with victory in all three of those outings.  That's a really good sign for Bowyer's chances this Sunday afternoon.    

Matt DiBenedetto – The trendy fantasy racing play of last season has spilled right over into 2020.  The move to the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford has seemed to only boost DiBenedetto's level of performance.  Through four races he has one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes.  The Top-5 effort is noteworthy because it was a brilliant runner-up performance at the intermediate oval in Las Vegas a couple weeks ago.  Atlanta could bear similar fruit for the driver of the No. 21 Ford Mustang.  DiBenedetto has four-career starts at this speedway, and nothing special in the way of results thus far.  However, this streaking driver has had his way with cookie cutter ovals of late.  The last five starts dating back to last fall have yielded one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes for an average finish of 14.4 across the span.

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been a spotty performer on the intermediate ovals over the last five events.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has just two Top 10's in his last five races dating back to last year's Las Vegas event.  That 40-percent Top-10 rate and 14.2 average finish don't move the needle much for the star power that this driver boasts.    Hamlin has had a mixed level of performance at best over the years at Atlanta.  The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has one win (2012), four Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes at AMS.  The Top-10 rate is low at just 35-percent.  Hamlin also struggled in our recent intermediate oval race at Las Vegas a couple weeks ago.  He labored to an unimpressive 17th-place finish at that similar-sized track.  It might be best to take a pass on Hamlin this week in weekly lineup leagues.   

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been a pretty trendy fantasy racing play since Ryan Newman was hurt in a crash in the Daytona 500.  However, the relief driver hasn't paid much dividends in his three starts in the No. 6 team to this point.  Chastain has 27th-, 17th- and 23rd-place finishes at Las Vegas, Fontana and Phoenix.  That checks in around a 22.3 average finish.  Not the performance fantasy racing sleepers are made of for sure, and not likely as well as Newman would be performing if he were still in the No. 6 Ford.  Chastain has just two-career starts at the Atlanta oval, and they were 30th- and 31st-place finishes for a smaller race team the last two seasons.  Too many uncertainties surround Chastain in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.   

Christopher Bell – Bell has been the tough-luck rookie of an extremely talented rookie class thus far this season.  The Leavine Family Racing driver tried to shake that off at Phoenix this past weekend, but still struggled to a 24th-place finish in the Fan Shield 500 at Phoenix Raceway.  Now we come to another new Cup Series oval for Bell.  This will be his first-career start in NASCAR's top division at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  He did make two Xfinity Series starts at this facility the last two seasons, so he's not completely unfamiliar with the track.  However, this will be his first start in a finicky Cup car at Atlanta.  Given that Bell struggled tremendously in the recent Las Vegas race and finished 33rd that afternoon, it would be ill-advised to deploy the No. 95 Toyota team at Atlanta this weekend.      

Daniel Suarez – As far as x-factors go this weekend, Suarez is probably the biggest speculative play.  This will be Suarez's fourth look at Atlanta Motor Speedway in a Cup car.  While he finally nabbed his first-career Top 10 at the oval in this event one year ago, this will be his first start at the Georgia speedway with his new No. 96 team.  So far, things have been a struggle at Gaunt Brothers Racing.  However, Suarez did snag a season-best 21st-place finish last week at Phoenix.  All that aside, racing at Atlanta is going to be tough for this small race team.  Suarez' recent 30th-place finish at the similar oval in Las Vegas is not a confidence builder.  There are better fantasy racing selections among the lower tier drivers.