UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Houston - Strickland vs Hernandez
The UFC heads to Houston for a card that resembles one we might expect to see at the Apex. We'll take a look at each bout on the 14-fight card, including a tricky grappler who is a significant underdog, and a heavyweight looking to get back on the winning track. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Anthony Hernandez ($9,100)
It's hard to do anything but slam Hernandez into lineups at this price, as his all-action, grappling-heavy style has resulted in an average of 144.2 DraftKings points in his last three fights. Sean Strickland has always shown solid takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet when grounded, but he fights at such a measured pace that I expect Hernandez to swarm and work his game to perfection.
Melquizael Costa ($8,900)
Costa looks to be on the ascendency, as the ability to marry his range striking game with his superior grappling has seen him win five fights in a row. Dan Ige is a solid boxer with power in his hands, but it will be difficult for him to overcome a three-inch height disadvantage if he is unable to use his wrestling effectively.
Jacobe Smith ($9,200)
Smith will run into a hard ceiling if he doesn't learn to settle down in the cage. "Cobe" is fast, powerful, and can do a bit of everything in the cage, but his desire to finish fights quickly often leads to overextending on punches and draining his gas tank early. That said, I don't anticipate issues against Lucas Harrell, who will be flat-footed in the cage by comparison. This will be a good opportunity for Smith to show some growth against a fighter who will have trouble competing with him physically.
Michel Pereira ($8,500)
I don't trust Pereira or Zachary Reese, but Reese will be more popular as a dog play, which forces me to endorse a moderately-priced favorite with solid UFC wins. On the flip side, I would argue that Reese doesn't have a win over a fighter who belongs on the roster. While Pereira has lost his last three fights, he is much faster than Reese and sports a takedown defense rate of 76 percent.
Jordan Leavitt ($6,800)
Seeing Yadier Del Valle priced up to this degree makes me think that Vegas doesn't quite know how to interpret his win over Isaac Dulgarian, which saw the once-promising prospect submitted in Round 1 following suspicious heavy betting on the Cuban fighter. My initial read on Del Valle going into his fight against Connor Matthews was that his game is fairly shallow, but he is powerful and aggressive enough to get the job done. That skill set may be enough here, too, but the line is too wide against a fighter like Jordan Leavitt, who will try to work his grappling and put his opponent on the back foot.
Punahele Soriano ($7,900)
Ramiz Brahimaj is a powerful grappler with a strong guillotine, but that may be just enough to get him in trouble against Soriano, who has been submitted just once in 16 fights. We've already seen Brahimaj dominated by committed wrestlers Themba Gorimbo and Court McGee, and Soriano can strike if he feels a threat from the 33-year-old in top position.
Alden Coria ($9,000)
Luis Gurule is a functional boxer and wrestler, but he spends too much time letting his opponent dictate the action. Coria will look to crowd the space and work his grappling from the opening bell, and Gurule had a tough time staying out of the clinch against Jesus Aguilar.
Joselyne Edwards ($9,200)
This is a comfortable spot for Edwards, who has found a new lease on her career by mixing in wrestling with her kickboxing. Nora Cornolle was getting easily controlled on the ground against Hailey Cowan before she found just the second submission win of her career, and I don't expect lightning to strike against a fighter with much more high-level competition under her belt.
Alibi Idiris ($8,400)
I was surprised that Idiris was completely out of answers when faced with the pressure of Joseph Morales, which resulted in mistakes that cost him the fight. While he will be at a significant disadvantage in reach against Ode Osbourne, "The Jamaican Sensation" is much less likely to pressure relentlessly. If he can avoid an early charge, we should see a full complement of skills from the Kazakh fighter.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Carli Judice OVER 69.5 Significant Strikes, Phil Rowe UNDER 43.5 Significant Strikes, and Uros Medic UNDER 21.5 Significant Strikes
The only thing that stopped Judice from obliterating this total in three consecutive fights was her early knockout of Yuneisy Duben last year. The relatively low number here likely reflects Juliana Miller's ability to grapple, but Judice should be able to use her footwork to keep range and pick her opponent apart.
The book appears to be out on Phil Rowe, as shorter fighters will look to grapple him to neutralize disadvantages in height and reach. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani has a slick submission game and will hit takedowns. Whether Rowe catches the debutante early or he is able to ground "The Fresh Prince," totals should stay low in this one.
This is a somewhat elevated total for Medic, who has not eclipsed single-digit significant strikes in any of his last four fights. I'm not sure why this would change against Geoff Neal, who is incredibly fast and powerful. I expect another quick knockout here, leaving our total well below the line.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC Bets to Consider
Ante Delija Wins via KO/TKO (+120)
A bizarre restart led to a knockout loss in Delija's last fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, but the former PFL heavyweight champion remains a long, powerful puncher with a solid grappling base, making me wonder how Serghei Spivac is going to generate his offense. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the more likely it is that the Polish fighter will not see the scorecards.
Chidi Njokuani Wins via KO/TKO (+170)
We saw in his knockout loss to Muslim Salikhov how much trouble Carlos Leal can get into when he leaves his head on the center line. Against Njokuani, the Brazilian will give up four inches in height, meaning he will need to be very careful of knees up the middle and elbows in close range. "Bang Bang" is vulnerable against fighters with superior footwork and those who are committed grapplers, but I don't see enough craft or technique from Leal to pick this fight another way.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Houston this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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