Two title fights sit atop the UFC 307 main card, which is complete with 12 fights for DFS players and bettors to find profit. We'll look at each bout across three platforms, including the more imposing force in a battle of two long-time veterans and a light heavyweight who the oddsmakers may be counting out too soon. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ovince Saint Preux ($7,000)
We open our predictions with curiosity, as I see no reason why a fight between Ryan Spann and "OSP" should be anything other than even money. Even with all the miles he has logged in the sport, Saint Preux still outstruck Kennedy Nzechukwu over three rounds, which stands head and shoulders above any win "Superman" has had in the Octagon. Spann is a competent jiujitsu player, but we've seen how well Saint Preux uses his length from top position, and Spann has gotten tired when forced to exchange on the ground. While OSP may get chinned by the big power of his opponent, there is nothing in Spann's three-fight losing streak that tells me he should have a sizeable advantage here.
Iasmin Lucindo ($8,600)
Lucindo will enter her fight against Marina Rodriguez at a three-inch height disadvantage, which makes it all the more important that she go to her wrestling. The 22-year-old has notched eight takedowns over her last three fights, and Rodriguez was controlled on the ground for over 12 minutes in her loss to Virna Jandiroba. Lucindo should be able to replicate that blanketing performance, resulting in enough room to be a high-floor cash play at the very least.
Joaquin Buckley ($8,800)
Buckley introduced himself to the MMA world with slick striking and jaw-dropping knockouts, but "New Mansa" is no stranger to wrestling, having notched at least two takedowns in three of his last four fights. Stephen Thompson was always lauded for his excellent takedown defense, but that has crumbled of late, with "Wonderboy" hitting the mat 13 times in his last four bouts. Buckley may have a renewed focus on grappling, but he hasn't lost any of his explosivity on the feet, which should make him a tough matchup for the former title challenger.
Austin Hubbard ($7,600)
Hubbard will often be worth a look as an underdog due to his ability to do a bit of everything and the toughness he has shown in the Octagon. The latter of these attributes will be critical against Alexander Hernandez, who frequently gets tired after about a round of action. While not an unrelenting pressure fighter, Hubbard will control the center of the Octagon with a clear boxing advantage in this matchup. As long as he can survive an early onslaught, he should be able to take full advantage of things like "The Great Ape's" 59 percent takedown defense rate.
Raquel Pennington ($8,400)
It would be difficult to name a fighter who has done less to earn their opportunities than Julianna Pena, who enters her second consecutive title fight after being dismantled by the now-retired Amanda Nunes in 2022. To her credit, "The Venezuelan Vixen" has gotten incredibly far with a style that looks like it's more suited for the regional scene, as she blitzes forward with sloppy strikes and nonexistent defense to get to the clinch and make her opponents tired. The issue here is that Pennington handles pressure exceedingly well, as we saw in her matchup with Mayra Bueno Silva. She is also a sharp counterpuncher, which will be useful when Pena crashes the pocket. Things will get a bit more interesting if this fight hits the ground, but "Rocky" has only been submitted once in her 24-fight career, which should inspire confidence that she can handle herself on the mat.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Tecia Pennington OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes, Kevin Holland OVER 51.5 Significant Strikes, and Kayla Harrison Under 60.5 Significant Strikes
They don't call Tecia the "Tiny Tornado" for nothing, as boundless aggression has resulted in her landing nearly five significant strikes per minute in her lengthy UFC career. This line is clearly taking into account the wrestling of Carla Esparza, but she's struggled holding opponents on the mat of late, averaging less than a minute of control time in each of her last two fights. Tecia has always been strong for the division and should force "Cookie Monster" to stand at range for the majority of the fight.
It would be interesting to see Holland and Roman Dolidze grapple, but Holland is only interested in wrestling when he feels outmatched, and Dolidze is more of an opportunistic submission grappler. This being the case, it's likely these two try and land on each other in space, where Holland's quickness and length will be a major asset. The Georgian fighter is also incredibly tough, so he should stick around to absorb all that "The Trailblazer" can dish out.
I can't imagine a world in which Kayla Harrison would prefer to strike at range with most opponents. This will make it hard for her to get to the over in this one, as Ketlen Vieira knows how to keep herself safe on the ground and has logged a takedown defense rate north of 90 percent. This should lead to plenty of stalemates in grappling positions, which will suppress significant strike totals.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Cesar Almeida OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Alex Pereira OVER 8.5 Minutes of fight time
Given that Ihor Potieria has been knocked out in two of his three UFC losses, our first play may seem a bit risky, but "The Duelist" went deep into the second round against Rodolfo Bellato, and I haven't seen enough from the 5-1 Almeida to tell me he is going to be a consistent finisher at this level. I expect "Cesinha" to land powerful strikes at the outset but trust Potieria enough to take the shots and extend the bout.
Pereira versus Khalil Rountree becomes much more interesting when analyzed through this lens, as we have two incredibly heavy punchers squaring off. The rub here is that Rountree fights in bursts, which is likely why it took him until Round 3 to knock out Anthony Smith, despite having every conceivable advantage on the feet. The light heavyweight champion is more of a counter-puncher in his own right, and while he is the more seasoned striker in this matchup, Pereira still needs to respect Rountree's power. This should result in a slower-paced fight that extends into the second frame.
Bets to Consider
Tim Means Wins via KO/TKO (+325)
It's never a good sign when a veteran known for their durability starts getting knocked out, and that's exactly what has happened to Court McGee, who has been stopped by strikes in Round 1 in two of his last three bouts. As a fighter, Means is similar to one of the opponents who chinned Mcgee over this stretch, as Matt Brown comes forward, keeps a high pace, and throws in combination. Also, like Brown, Means is active from his guard, which gives him a good chance to get back to his feet if taken down.
Mario Bautista Wins via Decision (+145)
I enthusiastically picked Jose Aldo to beat Jonathan Martinez, feeling that a stationary kickboxer who derives most of his offense from leg kicks would be one of the better style matchups "The King of Rio" could draw in 2024. We now have a line that is far closer with a much more formidable opponent, as Bautista is an agile fighter who will throw in combination and can strike with power. This will be a test much more akin to someone like Max Holloway, who will not allow the all-time great to make his reads and pick his target apart. Bautista is hittable and stands heavy on his lead leg, but it's hard to imagine Aldo winning enough moments to carry two rounds here.
