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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: I cannot stress this enough, be very cautious playing anything on this card. We had a similar break this past season after the 4-nations, and trust me, there were no patterns to pick up on after that. If you think the players who were in the Olympics will play less in their first game back, I'll say that it's not necessarily the case. The TOI stat is all about rhythm, and with three weeks off, there is no rhythm right now. I've found some plays that look good, but it's mostly speculative or script-dependent at this point until these guys get back on the ice for a game or two.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Cale Makar 25 at Utah Mammoth - 9:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
I've been going less on Makar for most of the season and that's because his minutes have been reduced compared to this past season, but I have a feeling with 27 games left in the season and both Minnesota and Dallas starting to gain ground on the Avalanche, Makar will be asked to play more. In addition, the Avalanche are only slight favorites in this game, so a trail script could be in play. If that's the case, Makar should have no problem getting above 25 minutes.
Evan Bouchard 25 at Anaheim Ducks - 10:30 p.m. ET (LESS)
Bouchard was logging a lot of minutes as the Oilers dealt with several injuries to their defense early in the season, but now that everyone is healthy, his minutes have started to drop. Bouchard plays more when the Oilers are trailing, and even though they've trailed in all of their past three games, Bouchard has gone over 25 minutes in just one. Four games back, he barely went over 25 minutes, and that game went to OT. Unless something changed over the break, I would expect to see Bouchard's minutes in the sub-25 range on Wednesday.
Filip Hronek 24.5 vs. Winnipeg Jets - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
This is the speculative portion that I mentioned above. This pick really doesn't fit into any of my categories, so I'm putting it here and letting you know that this is not a typical top play; it's a speculative play. Hronek's minutes in his two most recent games were way lower than this line, and a lot of that was due to the games getting away from the Canucks, but I'm wondering how much they want to push Hronek down the stretch with essentially nothing to play for. This isn't the NBA; teams don't make it obvious when they tank, but honestly, why does Vancouver want to win at this point? Throw in some possible fatigue from the Olympics, and I think you have the makings of a decent underplay.
INJURY DEPENDENT
John Carlson 23 vs. Philadelphia Flyers - 7:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Carlson left his most recent game early after just playing seven minutes and while he's had three weeks to get right, he's still day-to-day heading into this game. If he plays, I'm expecting the Caps to bring him back slowly. Though he's played a lot of minutes lately, the Caps have held his minutes down many times this season, so they know how to operate without Carlson playing much. Another path to victory is a positive game script, in which case, Carlson wouldn't play much anyway. The Caps are -155 favorites over Philadelphia on Wednesday.
Jason Robertson 20 vs. Seattle Kraken - 8:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Robertson has played less than 20 minutes in 10 of his past 15 games, so why the over in this spot? Well, Dallas is dealing with a lot of injuries up front and they might not have many healthy bodies on Wednesday Mikko Rantanen is out and that alone might be enough to push Robertson over 20 minutes, but throw in Radek Faksa's trip to the IR and Roope Hintz suddenly questionable and you have a situation where Robertson might be pushing 24 minutes if this game is close or if the Stars fall behind.
SCRIPT/LINE DEPENDENT
Rasmus Dahlin 25.5 at New Jersey Devils - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
When we last saw Dahlin, he was in a pattern of getting more minutes. With the three-week break, there's no way to know if that pattern will hold, so instead of putting him in as a building block, I'll put him here and hope the Sabres fall behind in this game. The Sabres are slight underdogs in this game, so if they fall behind, Dahlin should go over, and even if this game stays close, if the pattern prior to the break holds, he'll still go over.
