NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for April 21-23 – Best Plays

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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.

Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101

Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101

Playoff Notes

Before we get to the picks, a few things to keep in mind during the playoffs:

OT will not count in the playoffs. This might be a shock to those who jumped into TOI this season. But for those who've been playing it for a few years, you're used to overtime being excluded. This seems like a big change, though it shouldn't affect that many plays - or, at least, the wins and losses should balance out. Yes, I know, I complain a lot about OT, and you'd think it's been a negative for me, though it probably evened out overall. This doesn't change my strategy at all. If the matchups are tight, that probably means the star players have already gone over their numbers. 

Things can get weird in the playoffs. When a game starts to go the wrong way, you'll often see players attempting to "send a message". What that means for us is sometimes you'll have someone get a game misconduct to kill any over possibility. It seems weird, as it rarely happens during the regular season, but the playoffs are different. If you have an over and your player is down a couple of goals late on, there's a chance you lose him to a misconduct. I've had it happen a few times, including one two years ago where I had Drew Doughty going over, and he was well ahead of pace, only to pick up a 10-minute penalty halfway through the third period. I'm not saying it's going to happen every night, though it'll come up at some point. Hopefully, our recommendations won't be involved. 

Teams won't always go all-in to get the win. It sounds counterintuitive, but coaches don't want to chase after a lost cause during a seven-game series. At some point, a coach must decide if it's worth going all-in to win. And if he decides it's not worth it, then the star players aren't going back on the ice to save their legs and to avoid any shenanigans that happen at the end of playoff games. 

All the above are reasons to take the less option more frequently in the postseason until you realize that the stars are generally going to receive more ice time than normal from the first two periods - and the third if the score line is tight. It's a balancing act, and I'll do my best to figure out where these plays are going to land each night. 

Analyzing NHL Time on Ice PrizePicks Plays

Card Overview: I think I'm finding the playoff rhythm as I went 4-1 on Monday, only missing on John Carlson by less than 30 seconds. 

I hypothesized on Monday that coaches were using game one to feel their way into the series, which led to fewer minutes for most players, but as soon as one team had the series advantage, you'd see an uptick in minutes. That held true in a few games on Monday, and it will probably hold true for the rest of round one. 

As for this card, it looks pretty good. I liked Monday's card better, but there are some strong plays on this card as well. 

BUILDING BLOCKS

Lane Hutson 26.25 at Tampa Bay Lightning - Tuesday - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Hutson has been great for us over the past month, and I'm expecting him to come through again in this spot. Noah Dobson will again be out of the lineup, which is going to free up a lot of ice time for the defense. Montreal has shown over the past month that it is more than happy to give Hutson the extra ice time. When at full strength, Hutson is purely a trail script play, but when shorthanded, he's been able to beat this number in a neutral script as well. Considering that Tampa Bay lost game one, I'm expecting the Lightning to come out hot here and get the early lead. That should ensure that Hutson gets above this number tonight. 

Mikhail Sergachev 24.75 at Vegas Golden Knights - Tuesday 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Sergachev burned me in game one, but I'm going back to him tonight. His line is 15 seconds lower than in game one, which will help, and with any luck, Utah will be playing from a trail script. Utah was in a mostly lead/neutral script in game one, which limited Sergachev's ice time, but I'm hoping that won't be the case here. More than that, though, I think Utah made a big mistake by not playing its top D-line more in game one, and it cost them as the Mammoth blew the lead and lost the game. I don't think they'll make the same mistake again here, as they surely don't want to go down 2-0 in what is a winnable series for them. 

Miro Heiskanen 26 at Minnesota Wild  - Wednesday - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Heiskanen hit on Monday with ease, but his number has jumped a full minute since then. I'm okay with that because Heiskanen topped 26 minutes on Monday in a lead script for almost the entire game. Heiskanen just needs a tight game to get over this number, but he'll also get there in a trail script. Dallas will be slight underdogs in this game, which means we should see one of the two favorable scripts for Heiskanen. Now that we're getting deeper into the series, expect the stars of each team to see more ice time. 

SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT

Thomas Chabot 26.5 vs. Carolina Hurricanes - Thursday - 7:30 p.m. ET (LESS) 

This play mostly hinges on Artem Zub's availability in game three. Luckily, the Senators get two days off between games two and three, and considering Zub was a GTD on Monday, you'd think he'd be ready three nights later. If he is, then this is a gift, but it's a gamble playing it this early. Even if Zub isn't ready, there's still a path to the under here, though, as Chabot has barely cleared this number in games 1-2, and both of those were largely trail scripts. There's just not a ton of time to go around with Jake Sanderson and Jordan Spence healthy. If Ottawa gets a lead, I think Chabot goes under this number, even if Zub is out. If Zub plays, then there's almost no way Chabot goes over this number.

Charlie McAvoy 25 at Buffalo Sabres - Tuesday - 7:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

McAvoy failed to go over his number in game one, but there were two reasons for that. First, his number was at 25.75, and second, the Bruins were playing with a lead for most of that game. They actually had a two-goal lead for a bulk of the game, and McAvoy doesn't play as much when they're in the lead. Buffalo got off to a slow start in game one, which makes sense as most of its players were new to the playoffs, and I'm sure there were some nerves, but the Sabres pulled it together in the 3rd period, and I'm expecting that to carry over to this game. Expect Buffalo to start fast, which will force Boston to play McAvoy more. A bonus here is that Boston is trailing in the series, so the Bruins can't play around tonight; they've got to get this game. 

John Carlson 24 at Edmonton Oilers - Wednesday - 10:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Same reasoning as Sergachev here. Anaheim trailed for about six minutes of the game at the end of the 1st period into the 2nd period, but they took the lead with 5.5 minutes to go in the 2nd period and held that lead until over 11 minutes into the 3rd period. During that time, Carlson wasn't playing much, but he played a lot once the Ducks fell behind. I think the coaching staff realizes that they need to play their top guys more in game two, which means Carlson should get more ice time. In addition, the Ducks are sizable underdogs, so if Edmonton can get it together and hold a lead, we should be looking at a trail script. Added bonus is that Carlson's line has dropped 30 seconds from game one.