This article is part of our Hutch's Hockey series.
When building a fantasy team, your decisions are often based on what you expect from a player. You can get to these expectations in a variety of ways -- personal opinions, past performance, projections -- but it's the overall expectation that leads to one selection or another.
Early in the season, these expectations can be shuffled all around. I've talked before about small sample sizes, but with every team having played at least 10 games, we're starting to get to a point where there's an established baseline to compare to. Obviously, these numbers won't be carbon-copied over each 10-game stretch, but there's enough to separate past and present production within the context of this season.
Some players will fall short of expectations, and others will exceed them. In the first case, you're looking at players who are well behind their pace from last year. For fantasy, you want to take a look at them on a case-by-case basis. Two things I'm always looking at to determine if something is a slow start, bad luck or a red flag: ice time and shot volume. Some players can do more with less ice time, but generally speaking, you want to see a struggling player receiving roughly the same usage as the last couple of seasons. Especially when it comes to power-play time. Shot volume is another factor -- if they're producing shots at a rate close to last year, but only half as many shots are going in, they're either unlucky or
When building a fantasy team, your decisions are often based on what you expect from a player. You can get to these expectations in a variety of ways -- personal opinions, past performance, projections -- but it's the overall expectation that leads to one selection or another.
Early in the season, these expectations can be shuffled all around. I've talked before about small sample sizes, but with every team having played at least 10 games, we're starting to get to a point where there's an established baseline to compare to. Obviously, these numbers won't be carbon-copied over each 10-game stretch, but there's enough to separate past and present production within the context of this season.
Some players will fall short of expectations, and others will exceed them. In the first case, you're looking at players who are well behind their pace from last year. For fantasy, you want to take a look at them on a case-by-case basis. Two things I'm always looking at to determine if something is a slow start, bad luck or a red flag: ice time and shot volume. Some players can do more with less ice time, but generally speaking, you want to see a struggling player receiving roughly the same usage as the last couple of seasons. Especially when it comes to power-play time. Shot volume is another factor -- if they're producing shots at a rate close to last year, but only half as many shots are going in, they're either unlucky or something is averaging out from past success. If shot volume is down, that's a bigger concern that suggests their on-ice role has changed. Percentages are fickle, but generally, players will convert their shots at a steady rate, with slight increases early in their careers and decreases in their later years.
In the second case -- players exceeding expectations -- I'm more willing to let things ride. I don't love to sell high, especially on waiver-wire moves. The theory behind this is that while it's nice to get good value in trade, dealing away a lesser-known player is likely to be difficult if opposing managers aren't as familiar. If I get a player for free, I don't need to capitalize on value as much. I can let them go for free to chase the next hot hand. When you're looking at players exceeding expectations, the most common case will be a younger player jumping into a larger role. These are largely safe adds, as teams will want these prospects to have success. When it's an older player, I tend to be more skeptical, especially if it comes after years of declining production.
In the end, there are some cases that just won't make sense regardless of context. Take a couple of Central Division teams the Jets and the Wild. I didn't question the Jets' talent, but I also didn't have them first in the league through October. With the Wild, I had very low expectations overall, but they've gotten the necessary success from all over the roster as well as a bounce-back year from Filip Gustavsson and an age-defying campaign yet again from Mats Zuccarello. In the case of Zuccarello, he's done this for a while now -- it's tough to predict when the drop-off will come for highly skilled players. Likewise, with the Jets, it's a team-wide success that didn't jump off the page prior to the season. This is where resetting your expectations comes in. Whether you believe in a player or a team, when they've shown you a month of play at a certain level, it's fair to continue to expect that from them. It works both ways, too, so while the Avalanche are likely to be a good team over time, October has highlighted some clear flaws with depth and goaltending.
The wild-card in all of these expectations comes from injuries. Losing a good player can make a massive impact, as can getting a good player back. When a top-six forward or top-four defenseman enters or exits the lineup, adjust your expectations for the team's performance accordingly. It will make a difference.
For the waiver wire this week, I'm taking a look at Rickard Rakell. In full honesty, I don't particularly like Rakell for fantasy. He's streaky, and that isn't something I want to deal with most of the time. I also can't ignore that he's landed in an ideal spot with the Penguins loading up the top line. Rakell is playing alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at even strength. With four points over his last four games, Rakell is also hot on offense. I'm willing to stick with him at least as long as the top line looks like that, but in fairness to Rakell, he's got nine points, 34 shots, 22 hits and 12 blocked shots over 13 outings this season, which is good enough all-around production to keep my attention.
Mikael Granlund is another player to consider in a larger-than-expected role. His 60-point campaign last year doesn't look to be a fluke now, as he has six goals, eight assists and 44 shots on net through 13 appearances. Granlund didn't average two shots per game, but he's over three per contest in 2024-25. His usage will drop a bit once Macklin Celebrini (lower body) returns, but there's proof from last year that Granlund can succeed in a less-than-ideal circumstance. Fantasy managers only need to find a way to offset his poor plus-minus rating that comes from having big minutes in San Jose.
Colton Parayko is hard to ignore after a three-point game Saturday versus the Maple Leafs. That's even more true with uncertainty around Philip Broberg (lower body), who left that game early, and the ongoing absence of Nick Leddy (lower body). Parayko is not the first choice for power-play minutes by any means, but he could see time there if Scott Perunovich can't hold down a spot in the lineup. Parayko has eight points over 12 games, but it's his 32 blocked shots, 17 hits and 26 shots on net that add some value here as a well-rounded option if Justin Faulk isn't available in your league.
It's not a full endorsement just yet, but I've liked what I've seen from Jake Walman so far. You can't sweep aside nine points in 13 games from a defenseman, especially with seven of those points over the last four contests. The main concern here is power-play time. The Sharks don't really have a true power-play quarterback on the roster. Walman has gotten first dibs at that role, while Henry Thrun, Jack Thompson and the newcomer to the roster, Timothy Liljegren, have also seen some chances. The Sharks have room to experiment in a rebuilding year. Walman will still get his looks at even strength -- in 14-team formats and deeper, he's a fine addition regardless of power-play minutes, but the leeway for fantasy rosters changes in shallower leagues since he'll have a rough plus-minus rating and is likely to regress in scoring without adding much physical play.
I'm a little late to the Connor McMichael party, so a quick note here. The Capitals are off to an excellent start, better than many expected to begin the season. McMichael has taken a step forward, and he's instantly become a reliable top-six forward with time in all situations. He has seven goals and five assists over 11 contests while adding 33 shots on net and a plus-7 rating. He's a skill guy, and this has all the ingredients of a breakout campaign, though he won't keep shooting 21.2 percent.
For speculative reasons, I'm willing to take a look at Rasmus Sandin again. He started the year cold but now has five assists over his last six games. That's fine, but the bigger picture here is the absence of Jakob Chychrun (upper body), who is on injured reserve and won't be eligible to play before Wednesday. Sandin is best suited to picking up Chychrun's power-play time in the short term, albeit on the second unit. Sandin has also blocked 28 shots over 11 outings this season, so he has a couple of ways to help fantasy managers as a depth option.
One of the players who has a hot streak about once a year to get on the radar is Ryan Donato, and he's at it again. He's earned eight points over his last seven games despite filling a fourth-line role for most of that stretch. For fantasy purposes, don't get too attached. He'll have a couple of heaters throughout the campaign, but he's best utilized as a streamer rather than a permanent part of your roster. For now, his hot play has earned him a top-line look, but the Blackhawks have frequently rotated wingers in and out of those spots.
Blake Coleman was always going to be an interesting case in fantasy this year. Last year, he shot 15.7 percent in a 30-goal, 54-point career year for the Flames. Based on his usual usage, those numbers are not going to be repeated -- Coleman's a checking-line winger who rarely gets much power-play time. However, the Flames' heavy retooling has actually led to him getting 17:45 of ice time per game in 2024-25, up from 17:08 last year. Coleman's done fine with six points in 12 games, and he's added 35 shots on net and 30 hits. His value will depend on the categories you're playing, but this is a case where the increased role could make up for the percentage-based regression. I'm setting expectations at 20 goals, 40 points, 200 shots and 150 hits while knowing that he'll play important minutes throughout the campaign.
Elvis Merzlikins may be working his way back into the picture for fantasy. An upper-body injury took him out of action for 10 days, but he's won twice in his three starts since his return. The loss was to the Jets, so that can be forgiven. As is the case with most waiver-wire goalies, you want to be selective with when you play them. Merzlikins also carries significant injury risk, and the Blue Jackets' defense isn't great, but he's been better than usual with a .907 save percentage over his first five games.
It's partly been because of the schedule, but the Senators haven't fully let Linus Ullmark run with the starting job just yet. That gives Anton Forsberg some early-season value, especially coming off his second shutout of the year Saturday against the Kraken. Considering Ullmark dealt with a muscle strain early on, that's a smart approach from the team. It helps that Forsberg has allowed them to be competitive, going 3-2-0 with a 2.65 GAA and a .910 save percentage over six games. Forsberg is a quality backup and Ullmark has been a tandem goalie for years, so this could be a good arrangement moving forward. Forsberg's worth adding in fantasy if he can get a start every week.
One last thought on expectations. They're like projections. Sometimes, players will fall short over short spans but be right on track by the season's end. In season, you have to constantly be adjusting and challenging what you believe about players -- it's the best way to fight any biases that pop up.
A lot of times for this column, I look at the stats and the rostered percentage before checking the player name. You don't want to buy in blind on anyone, but in my case, looking at the stats objectively can help me find something I hadn't seen before. Other times, it leads me back to a player I featured in a previous week, so it's not fool-proof -- I'm not here to bang the drum for the same 10 guys over and over. Still, I can figure out if I can make an argument in favor of picking a player up before cross-referencing with my own expectations and the player's team context. In the end, it's the production that matters when it comes to winning, not the name on the jersey. I'll have more for you next week.
