This weekend's big sports story was the College Football Playoff and its selection committee making what I (and many others) viewed to be the wrong choice for who plays in the four-team playoff for the National Championship. For those unfamiliar, ACC champion Florida State completed an undefeated season Saturday, only for the committee to select 12-1 teams from the University of Alabama and the University of Texas to join the 13-0 University of Washington and the University of Michigan teams in the playoff.
I'm not big on college football in general -- I prefer pro sports across the board for the parity. However, I'm of the belief that an undefeated season on the field should matter far more than the opinions of a few people, especially those who may be influenced by picking the more popular team over the statistically better team. I don't like when sports are decided on opinions. It should always be the standings, scoreboard and stats that lead the way. Going undefeated should be an automatic chance at a championship.
What this makes me appreciate even more is how the NHL runs the playoffs. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a glorious two months of intensity, where any of the 16 teams that make it have a legitimate chance at winning. There's no byes and no preferential treatment -- everyone needs 16 wins in 28 or fewer games to lift the Cup. It's a near-perfect format rivaled only by another collegiate product in March Madness. Most importantly, and maybe somewhat unpopularly, the NHL's point system is a generally fair representation of the quality and merit of the teams that get to play in the spring. Pro sports get it right, though they benefit from a smaller field of teams and enough intermingling between those teams to get to a fair result.
That all said, college football will solve its own problem by expanding the playoffs to 12 teams next year. I might care more when it inevitably ends up at 16 -- and when my Washington State Cougars are actually good enough to get in. I beg the NHL not to take a page from the NCAA's book; the Stanley Cup Playoffs don't need expansion. Leave it at 16 and let me enjoy the ride.
Likewise, the playoff hunt is gathering steam for fantasy hockey, and there's a few players that merit consideration to help your roster this week.
Jake Neighbours has gotten a big opportunity for the Blues in the last week, and he's ran with it. The winger has racked up seven goals, one assist and 16 hits over his last eight games, and he's risen from the bottom six to the top line in that span. Neighbours is a first-round pick from 2020, so there's some pedigree here, as well as room to grow beyond being an energy generator on the third line. The results remain inconsistent for the Blues as a whole, but Neighbours may get a longer top-line look if he can stay hot amid the team's troubles.
Tom Wilson emerged from an inconsistent stretch with four goals over his last two games. The Capitals' offense has been abysmal early in 2023-24, and the 29-year-old has paid a price on offense with 13 points over 21 contests despite seeing regular top-six minutes and power-play time. Wilson is still a premier agitator with 59 hits and 45 PIM, and his 62 shots on net are solid for a power winger. He's out there in half of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday night -- this is a case for routine due diligence.
Anders Lee fell off the map with a 10-game point drought that stretched into mid-November. Since he snapped the skid, he's racked up four goals and two assists over eight contests. He's averaged just 13:58 of ice time per game since he got his play back on track -- there's some long-term damage here, but it appears the 33-year-old could be benefiting from less ice time in a middle-six role. He's maintained a 20-goal pace or better (over a full season) for the last seven years, so there's enough of a track record to be cautiously optimistic.
J.T. Compher is a solid scoring-only option to consider, even with Patrick Kane's arrival expected during the upcoming week. Since the start of November, Compher has four goals and nine assists over 13 games, with three power-play points and a plus-6 rating in that span. As a center, he's a virtual lock to stay in a top-six role even as the Red Wings' roster evolves to accommodate their big signing. While Kane could negatively impact Compher if head coach Derek Lalonde loads up the top line, it's also possible Compher could see more favorable matchups on the second line in that situation.
The Stars have had a reputation of being a one-line team over the last couple of seasons despite deploying forwards in a balanced manner. That reputation is even less accurate this season with the emergence of the Mason Marchment-Matt Duchene-Tyler Seguin trio. Marchment's the one straggling to get the fantasy attention this week, and that's fair given his streaky history. With four goals and five assists over his last seven outings, he's hot now, and his role is favorable with second-line duties and time on the second power-play unit. Marchment might only help you for a while, but he's worth a look while widely available, especially with the team playing well.
It's a little tough to mine the waiver wire for defense upgrades this week, but a couple of defensive specialists have stood out lately. Chris Tanev has five points and 16 blocked shots over his last seven games, including one he took off his face. He's as tough as they come for getting into shooting lanes and sacrificing the body, though he doesn't hit much and the offense is just a bonus. Don't expect his scoring pace to last -- he's an option mainly for deeper fantasy formats.
Alexander Romanov is more of a well-rounded blueliner to consider. Romanov has four helpers, eight hits and 13 blocked shots over his last five contests. Unlike Tanev, Romanov will throw the body around with gumption. Both blueliners have a season-long scoring potential around 20-25 points, so it's all about picking them up while they're producing across the board instead of just in one or two categories.
It's amazing what being healthy can do -- just ask Robby Fabbri. He's played in Detroit's last nine games, amassing six goals and two assists in that span since finally shaking off a lower-body injury that bothered him early in the year. Fabbri's a player that would likely be a fantasy mainstay if he could avoid injuries, but he's exceeded 60 games in just two of his first seven campaigns. He's worth a look while hot, even if he's in a middle-six role and likely to get bumped down the depth chart and possibly even off the power play once the aforementioned Kane makes his Red Wings debut.
We're getting into last-call territory for Teuvo Teravainen -- he's at 54 percent rostered in Yahoo and climbing after posting three goals and six assists over his last nine contests. He's another veteran back on the radar after posting a rough 37-point season a year ago. Teravainen is also a scoring-only option, though he can contribute in all situations. He's at 18 points through 23 games this season, and while the 21.6 shooting percentage is a concern, he's in a talented lineup that should allow him to remain productive throughout the year.
I'm warming up to considering Alex Killorn again. He started the season out with a broken finger, and picked up just two assists through his first seven games with the Ducks once healthy. A move from Tampa to Anaheim was always going to be a downgrade, but he's gotten into a groove alongside Leo Carlsson on the top line lately. Killorn has five points over his last seven outings -- that's a pace I could see him sustaining, especially once Carlsson is an everyday player in the second half of the season. Getting back to the 50-point mark could be difficult, but Killorn's with the Ducks as much for his championship experience and mentoring as he is for his offense.
In goal this week, it's worth taking a look at the Blue Jackets, who are set for a four-game week. Elvis Merzlikins has gone 3-2-0 with a 2.42 GAA and a .937 save percentage over his last five outings. He's finally putting a grip on the No. 1 job, and just in time with Daniil Tarasov (knee) on a conditioning assignment. Merzlikins is the franchise goalie for now -- that may not be the case in a couple of years, but he's often returned solid numbers behind a mediocre team. He's worth a short-term look at a minimum.
Likewise, Spencer Martin could be the goalie that gets pinched out when Tarasov returns. Martin's been fine as a backup with a 3.20 GAA and a .902 save percentage over 10 games this season. He showed promise at times last year behind a leaky Canucks defense as well, but ultimately faded under a career-high 29-game workload. Contenders are always looking for goaltending on the cheap -- Martin costs just over the league minimum against the cap, and he seems like a candidate who would benefit behind a stronger defense. He's more of a speculative add in the short term, but it could be a shrewd move if he's traded or waived and ends up in a favorable spot.
I hope my rant on merit for playoff teams is something fantasy managers can relate to. A good manager is not looking exclusively at the name of a player they're considering to add -- there's also stats and roles and a bigger picture to consider when making a move. In the end, a supposedly good player with poor numbers should be considered an assumed risk, as should a bad player with good numbers. Recency bias can play a part in this, but in the end, you should pick up the player that has the best chance of helping you win.
Hockey is very obviously my main sport to play in fantasy, but I've tried my hand at all sports. I took a handful of years off from fantasy football when I lost interest in the NFL. When I picked it up again, I knew very few of the game-changing players -- basically just a few veterans that were still good from the last time I had paid attention. That forced me to change my approach when drafting. I did a lot more reading up on team situations and looking at projections.
I'm still using that approach in football and basketball now. I pick players on their merits, not their popularity. I didn't have a share of LeBron in my first two fantasy basketball seasons, and I've often missed out on top running backs and point guards while trying to build a more balanced and safe-floor roster. As with any fantasy sport, the results in practice are often mixed no matter how good the draft-day looks, but it's an approach that's given me a better chance to win than relying on name recognition alone.
This week, don't be afraid to add a player that you're not familiar with. If they've scored a lot or put up strong stats that help in your format, give them a shot. Maybe even watch a couple of their games and see how they play -- how they're similar and different from players you watch regularly. I'll be back next week for another look at the waiver wire.
