NHL teams trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven postseason series face a lot of obstacles in trying to advance. But statistical analysis identifies three key categories these comeback teams have in common. RotoWire.com adds to our NHL betting insight by spelling out these areas where, in eight series since 2013, teams always improve in Games 5-7 as they rally to win a series.
Our interactive graphic gives you the data, with the methodology explained below:
Methodology: Hockey players and coaches usually talk in cliches when they explain how they came from 3-1 down to win a playoff series. But we're here for real data trends that hockey bettors at sports betting sites can use to identify possible situations where a team might get hot and win the last three games, including Game 7.
First, RotoWire used the Hockey Reference website for advanced breakdowns of each game in the eight series that we studied since 2013. We fed all 56 boxscores to AI tool Claude for tabulating series trends, then relied on real human analysis to explain how these trends apply when a team comes back from 3-1 down to win a series.
The Champs or Chumps website provided a baseline for us to cull this information about when these comebacks have happened.
Here are three things to look for in NHL futures betting for why and how teams climb out of a 3-1 hole to win a postseason series. These factors popped up in all eight series that we used as research.
Power Play and Penalty Kill Reversal in NHL Playoff Comebacks
Teams coming from behind all woke up a snoozing power play to dominate late in each series. Our comeback teams averaged 11.3% with a man advantage in Games 1-4 of their series. In Games 5-7, that average spiked 21.6 percentage points, to 32.9%. Two teams pulled a Bluto Blutarsky for power-play percentage in Games 1-4: Zero point zero. But the 2014 Rangers (0-for-15 in the first four games) and 2021 Canadiens (0-for-13) both were over 25% during the final three games. And each team that roared back got better on their penalty kill as well. Cumulatively, the opposing power-play units for the losing teams dipped from 19.6% in Games 1-4 to 11% in Games 5-7.
Goaltending SV% Swings That Decide Stanley Cup Series
This should come as no surprise to folks wagering at NHL betting sites: Good goaltending wins, especially in the playoffs, when low-scoring games are often the rule. Teams erasing a series deficit improved their save percentage by an average of .054 points between the first four games and the final three. Team that lost those series had their save percentages dip by .050 points on average. A very small swing is often enough to settle a series, so that massive of a difference is telling. Even a small change in performance (Henrik Lundqvist in 2015 or Sergei Bobrovsky in 2023) matters when the other team's goalie loses his form.
Shooting Percentage Regression in Overcoming 3 1 Deficits
Hand in hand with the second category is this one. Shooting percentages drop for the losing teams in our dataset at a consistent rate. Teams leading 3-1 after four games found the twine 10.9% of the time in those games, but their shooting percentage dropped to a cumulative average of 5.7% in Games 5-7. Conversely, the teams digging out of 3-1 holes in a series to advance have found the net almost twice as often in Games 5-7, with their average SH% climbing from 6.4% to 12.0%.
It might be surprising to learn that these three stats have mattered more than possession, as expressed in Corsi stats. A team erasing that 3-1 deficit actually possessed the puck a bit less: The average CF% dropped from 50.4% in the first four games to 47.7% in the final three.
Now let's focus on each specific series to find out how these factors worked in practice to lift the rallying team. There could be opportunities for an edge at legal sportsbook apps if you can spot these trends before they happen.
2013 conference semifinal, Chicago Blackhawks over Detroit Red Wings
Brent Seabrook's overtime goal in Game 7 capped a comeback that got the Blackhawks out of a jam and sent Chicago on its way to a second Stanley Cup title in four years. Detroit did not dramatically outplay Chicago in the first four games. But in Games 2-4 especially, Detroit's Jimmy Howard was a lights-out backstopper. In the final three games, the Blackhawks found their footing on the power play with four goals total. Chicago goalie Corey Crawford stepped up, allowing just five goals on 91 shots (a .945 save percentage) to keep the Blackhawks in games.
2014 first round, Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks
Like the Blackhawks the season before, the 2014 Kings had to pull off a Houdini act in the first round. And this Los Angeles squad also turned that comeback into Stanley Cup hardware. This was even more remarkable because San Jose led the series 3-0, but the Kings won the final four games by a combined 18-5. Jonathan Quick was especially dramatic in changing his form. His .849 SV% in the first three games was a one-way ticket to a first-round exit. But he flipped the script dramatically with a .975 save percentage in the final four games. San Jose's shooting percentage cratered, though they still generated chances and controlled possession. They just stopped finishing, which led to L.A. becoming the fourth team ever to win an NHL playoff series after trailing 3-0.
2014 conference semifinal, New York Rangers over Pittsburgh Penguins
Rangers fans called Henrik Lundqvist "King Henrik" for good reason. The end of this series was another demonstration, as Pittsburgh's star-studded offense generated just one goal in each of the final three games. As we mentioned, the Rangers power play was dreadful to start this series but kicked into gear later (3-for-11 in the last three games). Two man-advantage goals broke Game 5 open, and Brad Richards' Game 7 winner also came on the power play. Pittsburgh superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were shut down late in this series, with Crosby going pointless in Games 5-7. That's one of only seven times in Sid the Kid's career that he has been scoreless for at least three consecutive games in one postseason.
2015 conference semifinal, New York Rangers over Washington Capitals
There were 25 goals total in this second-round tussle, tied for fourth fewest in an NHL seven-game series. Every game was decided by one goal. Save percentage, though it's a critical statistic, is only one component of team defense. New York proved that by averaging 11.5 blocks in the first four games, then 24.7 in Games 5-7. Washington went 0-for-9 on the power play in the final three games (not that the Caps were great earlier, at 1-for-6). The Rangers' disciplined play made a difference and they solved goalie Braden Holtby just enough when it mattered most. Derek Stepan's deciding goal in overtime of Game 7 capped New York's comeback.
2019 first round, San Jose Sharks over Vegas Golden Knights
They still grumble about this one in Sin City. Even after squandering a 3-1 series lead, Vegas led 3-0 in the third period of Game 7 until Cody Eakin was assessed a five-minute major for cross-checking. San Jose, already decent on the power play in the first six games (4-for-20, a 20% rate), grabbed that opportunity, scoring four times in that man advantage. Golden Knights forward Jonathan Marchessault tied it at 4 with 47 seconds left, but Barclay Goodrow's OT goal won it for the Sharks. The Vegas PP was 37.5% in Games 1-4 on a whopping 20 chances, but that unit went dry in the final two games on seven chances. Martin Jones, pulled twice early in the series, saved the Sharks with 58 saves on 59 shots in Game 6.
2021 first round, Montreal Canadiens over Toronto Maple Leafs
Power-play conversions, or lack thereof, turned this series on its head. Montreal went 3-for-6 in the final three games combined with the man advantage after getting nothing in the first four games. That 50% swing is the biggest in our dataset. Meanwhile, Leafs goalie Jack Campbell went from reliable to a liability. His save percentage was .965 as Toronto raced to a 3-1 series lead, but .892 thereafter. And while Auston Matthews (one goal in the series) and Mitch Marner (zero) slumped, the Habs had role players step up, such as Corey Perry (two PP goals including the Game 7 winner) and Joel Armia (two goals in Game 5).
2022 first round, New York Rangers over Pittsburgh Penguins
Igor Shesterkin was pulled in Games 3 and 4 as Pittsburgh unleashed a seven-goal barrage in each game. The Rangers goalie allowed 10 goals on 45 shots in those two games combined (a .778 SV%) but his percentage was over .900 in each of the final three games. He didn't have to be great late in the series, just good enough. The Rangers, mostly working against backup goalie Louis Domingue, saw their shooting percentage spike from 8.3% in the first four games to 13.7% in Games 5-7 to turn the tide in a series that featured 57 total goals, tied for sixth all-time in one series.
2023 first round, Florida Panthers over Boston Bruins
This is in the argument for the biggest shock in NHL playoff history. The Bruins had a record 135 points (65-12-5) in the regular season and pounced early in this series on Florida, a wild-card team. To make this scenario more unlikely, the Panthers scored in bunches on Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark and settled their own unpredictable goaltending situation with Sergei Bobrovsky. Ullmark had an .840 SV% in Game 5 and .813 in Game 6 before Boston yanked him in favor of Jeremy Swayman for Game 7. Swayman was only slightly better (an .871 SV%) and the Panthers won 4-3 on Carter Verhaeghe's OT goal. Florida's power play went from 10% in the first four games to 57.1% in the final three. Boston also improved with the man advantage, the only losing team on our list to do so, but Florida's PP was that much better.
