This article is part of our Team Previews series.
The Coyotes missed the playoffs for the second year in a row, coming up two points shy of the eighth spot in the Western Conference. The near-miss hid some of the team's fundamental weaknesses, such as a minus-15 goal differential on the season, a middling offense that put them in the middle of the pack in goals, shots per game, and possession measurements, and last but not least, a dreadful penalty-kill (79 percent, 26th in the NHL). It's been a full year that the franchise has been under the ownership of the IceArizona Acquisition Co., and it's not clear if the Coyotes are trending up or down.
While the squad didn't make any wholesale changes in the summer, a few transactions are worth noting. Last year's big free-agent signing, Mike Ribeiro, was released in the offseason following personal issues the club deemed unmanageable, with the center ultimately landing in Nashville. The Coyotes also said goodbye (again) to free agent Radim Vrbata and his 22 goals per season over the past five years. In their place, the Coyotes acquired the talented, but perpetual tease Sam Gagner from the Lightning, and will look to youngsters like top prospect Max Domi to assume larger roles. Oh, and the team changed its name to the Arizona Coyotes, ensuring that the only organizational shakeups weren't just on the ice.
Much of the Coyotes' hopes for 2014-15 will depend on the development of players like Oliver Ekman-Larsson (who is moving into the echelon of Norris
The Coyotes missed the playoffs for the second year in a row, coming up two points shy of the eighth spot in the Western Conference. The near-miss hid some of the team's fundamental weaknesses, such as a minus-15 goal differential on the season, a middling offense that put them in the middle of the pack in goals, shots per game, and possession measurements, and last but not least, a dreadful penalty-kill (79 percent, 26th in the NHL). It's been a full year that the franchise has been under the ownership of the IceArizona Acquisition Co., and it's not clear if the Coyotes are trending up or down.
While the squad didn't make any wholesale changes in the summer, a few transactions are worth noting. Last year's big free-agent signing, Mike Ribeiro, was released in the offseason following personal issues the club deemed unmanageable, with the center ultimately landing in Nashville. The Coyotes also said goodbye (again) to free agent Radim Vrbata and his 22 goals per season over the past five years. In their place, the Coyotes acquired the talented, but perpetual tease Sam Gagner from the Lightning, and will look to youngsters like top prospect Max Domi to assume larger roles. Oh, and the team changed its name to the Arizona Coyotes, ensuring that the only organizational shakeups weren't just on the ice.
Much of the Coyotes' hopes for 2014-15 will depend on the development of players like Oliver Ekman-Larsson (who is moving into the echelon of Norris Trophy-caliber defensemen), Mikkel Boedker (who leapt over the 50-point plateau for the first time in 2013-14), and blueliner Keith Yandle, the team's offensively-gifted, but defensively-challenged leading scorer. In addition, to have any chance at the playoffs, the Coyotes will need goaltender Mike Smith to play at a league-average level or better, which he was not able to do for most of last season.
Arizona will enter play as one of the NHL's older teams (average age of nearly 29 years), and if they are not competitive early, it may be time for a reset to bring in younger players.
The Big Guns
Antoine Vermette, C (RotoWire Position Rank*: #43): Vermette led the Coyotes in goals last season with 24, cracking the 20-goal plateau for the first time in four years. His excellence in the face-off circle continued as well, with the center ranking ninth in faceoff-winning percentage at 56.4 percent, while taking more draws than anyone not named Sidney Crosby. Vermette also enjoyed increased responsibility with the Coyotes than in recent years, seeing a surge in average ice time (19:13) and power-play production (seven goals, 13 points). His well-rounded game will be counted on again heavily by the Coyotes in 2014-15, with a role awaiting him on one of the top two lines and the penalty kill. Vermette isn't an elite scorer, but will contribute in a bunch of different ways to fantasy teams, particularly in leagues with specialty categories like faceoffs.
*RotoWire Position Ranks reflected for points-based leagues*
Shane Doan, RW (RotoWire Position Rank: #37): Doan had a strong season in 2013-14, scoring 23 goals and 47 points despite missing more than a dozen games. That being said, Doan's days as one of the league's best power forwards are in the rearview mirror, as his shots, PIM and hits have continued to trend downward as he's aged. Doan will turn 38 during the upcoming season and he should offer some fantasy value with another 20 goals and 40-plus points, but fantasy owners should recognize him for what he is at this stage of his career.
Keith Yandle, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #4): Yandle led Arizona in scoring with 53 points in 2013-14, including 31 points on the power play. The fact that those numbers came with a dismal minus-23 rating should not deter fantasy owners, but his shortcomings in that category can't be ignored entirely. Despite scoring just eight goals, Yandle put a career-high 241 shots on net, which ranked third among defensemen and tied for 25th among all skaters. Don't be surprised if he sees a jump in goals this year once his shooting percentage reverts back to near his career norm.
Mike Smith, G (RotoWire Position Rank: #13): It was a tale of two seasons for Smith, who was, quite frankly, pretty ordinary until Feb. 1. He turned a corner thereafter, putting up a dominant stretch of 17 starts in which he posted a .933 save percentage before his season ended with an MCL sprain. Smith is healthy heading into this season and remains Arizona's clear No. 1 goaltender. Even so, the 32-year-old has just one above-average season (2011-12) as a starter on his resume, and is not likely to trend up into the elite group of NHL goalies. What he does have working for him is volume, as he can be expected to make around 60 starts again and rack up a decent win total in 2014-15.
On the Rise
Mikkel Boedker, LW (RotoWire Position Rank: #32): Boedker had a breakthrough 2013-14, charting his first 50-point season and scoring 19 times. That included five goals and 16 points on Arizona's power play, boosting Boedker's credentials as a legitimate second-line left winger. Perhaps most importantly for his outlook, Boedker nearly doubled his previous season high in shots on goal with a respectable 166. The departure of Radim Vrbata may give Boedker more time on the power play this season, and if he can improve on his shot total again, he could crack the 20-goal mark for the first time. Given that he's only 24 years old, Boedker should be considered a Coyote on the rise in fantasy leagues.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #14): Ekman-Larsson set new career-highs in goals (15) and points (44) last season, while seeing the sixth-most ice time in the league (25:53 per game). OEL improved in nearly every facet that's fantasy-relevant, including his production on the power play (22 points), as well as in PIM, hits and blocked shots. Most impressively, he blew away his previous-best shot total by amassing 199 blasts on net. Needless to say, the 23-year-old is an up-and-coming fantasy stud who, if he played on a better team, would be far more appreciated. Use that slight Arizona discount to your advantage and draft him as one of your top defensemen, without paying the price for one with more name recognition.
Two to Watch
Martin Hanzal, C (RotoWire Position Rank: #58): Hanzal set new career-highs in goals (15) and points (40) last season, but had difficulty staying healthy for the Coyotes. He missed more than a dozen games due to injury, which sabotaged a very hot start for the second year in a row, as he scored 34 points in his first 45 games. Quietly, Hanzal has become one the NHL's better power forwards, leveling more than 200 hits for the second time in his career. Among those players with more than 200 hits, only seven registered more points than Hanzal did. The 27-year-old also bested his previous top marks in shots, PIM and power-play points, all of which suggest a new echelon of production may still be in store. Hanzal will be a good option in leagues where his rough-and-tumble game fits with the depth fantasy players need at center or forward.
Sam Gagner, RW (RotoWire Position Rank: #83): It feels like Gagner has been around forever, but we're still waiting on the 25-year-old to deliver the breakout that has never seemed to come. Still, Gagner is a highly-skilled player who will slot into the role the Coyotes hoped Mike Ribeiro would fill: as a staple among their top-six forwards and a key cog on the power play. His 37 points and minus-29 rating in 2013-14 qualified a disappointment, but Gagner did miss a dozen games and was undermined by one of the league's worst defenses in Edmonton. The change of scenery can only help. Gagner will likely line up on a wing and play some center, but the big question is whether in his eighth season in the NHL, he has another gear to get over the 50-point hump once and for all.
Don't Overrate
Martin Erat, RW (RotoWire Position Rank: #73): Erat had an entirely forgettable season in 2013-14, registering just three goals and 29 points in 70 games between Arizona and Washington. He is only two seasons removed from being a dependable 50-point scorer, but Erat has seen his ice time and performance crater since reaching the other side of 30. To wit: he skated just 14:28 per game after arriving in Arizona. With the departure of some of the Coyotes' skilled veteran forwards in the offseason, Erat may open the campaign among the team's top six, but he will skating on thin ice if he can't manage to be more productive.
Michael Stone, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #82): Stone elated everyone by scoring seven times before the end of November, but potted just one goal thereafter. In spite of his steep downturn, Stone's 21 points and 105 shots over 70 games weren't a bad showing in his second full season, during which he averaged over a minute on the power play. Stone should find himself among Arizona's top-four defensemen in 2014-15, but don't let the memory of last season's hot start outshine his projection. He'll still offer plenty of value in deep leagues.
Top Prospects
Max Domi, C (RotoWire Prospects Rank: #23): Domi had an outstanding showing with the OHL's London Knights last season, scoring 90 points and supplying 90 PIM and a plus-24 mark in 61 games. With the departures of some veteran forwards from the Coyotes' roster, Domi has a good shot to make the team and find himself among the club's top-nine forwards. He'll still need to have a strong camp in order to make the cut, but the truth is the Coyotes need a player of his skill in their lineup, even if it comes with some growing pains. Domi could be a sleeper candidate for the Calder Trophy if he takes advantage of the opportunity.
Brendan Perlini, LW (RotoWire Prospects Rank: #60): Selected by the Coyotes with the 12th overall pick in June's NHL Entry Draft, Perlini is a big, fast and talented winger with remarkable quickness and agility for a guy who's 6-foot-3. He already has a pro shot with a rocket release. And he's unstoppable when he decides to drive the net. But it's still difficult to project when he'll be ready for the NHL, as he's been inconsistent in the OHL and has sometimes spent too much time on the perimeter. But Perlini is smart, so he knows what he needs to do to improve his game. It's going to take him some time to thicken up his lanky frame (he's just 205 pounds), but when he does, he'll be a complementary goal scorer on the second line. Scouts see a little bit of Jeff Carter in him, and even some James van Riemsdyk. We do, too…just don't over-invest now. He's a few years away.
Henrik Samuelsson, C (RotoWire Prospects Rank: #80): Samuelsson is coming off a great season with Edmonton in the WHL and will be given a chance at competing for a roster spot with the big club. He recorded 35 goals and 95 points with 97 PIM in 65 games last season, showing a mix of skill and grit that is valuable in real life and fantasy. Ideally, he would find his way into the top six for the Coyotes if they decide to keep him out of camp, but the odds are probably against that happening this year. Once it does, Samuelsson has the kind of game that makes him worth tracking.
Brandon Gormley, D (RotoWire Prospects Rank: #82): Gormley was the Coyotes' top-ranked defense prospect heading into last season, but seemed to lose that distinction to Connor Murphy by the end of 2013-14, as he only saw action in five games with the big club. He did manage to deliver a strong offensive season at AHL Portland with seven goals and 36 points, but it came with a minus-22 rating. Gormley should be in the mix for a roster spot in camp considering his polished offensive skill set, but he'll need to step up his work on the back end in order to solidify a job on the team's third pairing.
