Weekly PGA Preview: Valspar Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor as the Valspar Championship gets underway.

Before we get to that, I have to talk about what happened this past week at THE PLAYERS Championship. In case you missed it, what happened was a confirmation of everything we've thought over the past two years and that's that Scottie Scheffler is unquestionably the best golfer on the planet. There's actually only one guy that could even put up an argument, but he chose to play exhibition golf for most of the year, so he's out. That's not really the conversation however, the conversation should be, is Scheffler the best golfer since Tiger? This one is a little more difficult because we've had quite a few outstanding runs since the Tiger era ended, including ones from Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas, but all of those runs had exceptions. Spieth's ended too quickly, Koepka never managed to play well enough outside the majors and Thomas didn't pick up enough majors. As we look at Scheffler's run, it's too early to proclaim this the best run since the Tiger era ended as he definitely has some work to do at the majors this season and beyond, but if he continues to putt like an average PGA Tour player or better, then there's no doubt his numbers over the next few years will be historic.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Taylor Moore shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Adam Schenk.

FAVORITES

Xander Schauffele (13-2)

I'll start by stating this makes no sense. I get that Schauffele should be among the favorites, but to be this far ahead of Burns makes no sense. Now, as for his prospects this week, I'm not sure I like Schauffele this week, which means I certainly don't like him at this price. He played great this past week, but do we need to worry about the way he lost at THE PLAYERS? He was in the lead most of the weekend, and couldn't hold on, that can be tough to come back from. He only has one start here, which was a T12, so it's not like he's returning to a place where he feels comfortable. I'll pass at this number.

Sam Burns (12-1)

Again, this makes no sense. Burns should be the favorite this week, not almost double the price of the favorite. To put it simply, this is Burns' event. Most high-end golfers have a spot or two on the schedule where they just own an event, and this is it for Burns. He won this event in 2021 and 2022 and he finished T6 this past year. He had a bit of a rough go this past week at THE PLAYERS, but he still made the cut. His form prior to this past week was just fine. This is a good price on Burns.

Justin Thomas (14-1)

There are two ways to look at JT this week. The first is that his form has been pretty good this year and his track record at this event is pretty solid, so there is some value here. The other way to look at JT is that he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS this past week, a place where he's generally pretty good, so how good is his form actually? I'm not really in either camp to be honest, but I have to say that I don't like his lack of consistency. As such, I'm not touching him at this price.

THE NEXT TIER

Brian Harman (22-1)

As someone who was rooting for Scheffler to win this past week, I have to admit that no one scared me more than Harman. When he's on, he's scary to root against. The question of course is, will be still be on when he tees it up on Thursday? I think he will be, but his track record here is a little concerning. He's missed the cut in six of nine starts, but when he has played the weekend he has played pretty well. Plus, he's probably a better golfer now than at any point previously, so we can't put too much stock into previous results.

Nick Taylor (35-1)

Speaking of a "better golfer now..." Taylor is really showing something this season. He's gone from a guy who'll play well one week and then coast, to backing up his strong showings with continued sound play. He won the Phoenix Open in February, but he hasn't coasted at all since. He posted a T12 at the Palmer and played well in three of four rounds this past week at THE PLAYERS. His track record here is sketchy, but he did post a top-10 this past year.

Doug Ghim (50-1)

It looks like Ghim might finally be coming around. We've been waiting for him to find his form for a while, and maybe he has figured it out. Ghim enters this week having posted top-16s in his five previous starts. Most impressive was the T16 this past week at THE PLAYERS. It would be a huge step up to win an event against a pretty solid field, but he's certainly trending in the right direction, so maybe he can pull it off.

LONG SHOTS

Maverick McNealy (60-1)

For years, McNealy was a guy you only looked at while the PGA Tour was out west, but he's started to expand his horizons and can be considered an option anywhere now. Consistency is still not his forte, but when he's on, he's pretty darn good as he showed this past week at THE PLAYERS. McNealy wasn't able to get anything going on Sunday, but he still managed to stay inside the top-10, which is pretty impressive considering the field.

Taylor Montgomery (90-1)

Last year, it was a disastrous final round at THE PLAYERS that sent Montgomery into a tailspin of which he failed to recover. Montgomery appeared to put that demon to rest this past week when he finished T11 at THE PLAYERS and did so by playing well in the final round. Perhaps this will have the opposite effect of this past year and set him on a course to bigger and better things. We saw what he was capable of early in his rookie season, maybe he's got that mojo back now.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns - Like Scheffler this past week, there is going to be a high concentration of picks on one player this week and that's Burns. It's never fun being lumped in with the pack on your OAD pick, but sometimes you just have to go with it knowing that you'll lose ground unless you do. This is one of those cases.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Justin Thomas - Thomas gets this spot for the second consecutive week. His inconsistency is actually why he's listed here, which sounds strange, but it's more about his reliability or lack thereof at the majors, which puts him into a new class of players, one that you would use with a smaller purse. His track record here is among the best, so if he turns his game around quickly, he could do damage this week.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Nick Taylor - For this pick, I had a few guys in mind, none of which had strong track records here, so I went with the guy that had the best form entering this week, which is always debatable, but Taylor did win just a month ago and he played well this past week, so maybe this is all part of one big run.

Buyer Beware: Xander Schauffele - Schauffele is back in the same spot as last week and man did I whiff on that pick. That's what happens when you put mostly high-quality players in this spot, however. I'm going back to the well again however, not because I hate Schauffele, but because I think last week's near miss is going to affect him this week. That and he's only played here once, so there's probably something he doesn't like about this course.

This Week: Sam Burns - For the second consecutive week I'm going with the most popular pick. I can do that now because by going with the most popular pick this past week and picking up $4.5 million, I'm in a position to not care much about the competition for a while. Sure, it's no fun when half the league has the same guy, but that was the case this past week and let me tell you, it's not so bad picking up $4.5 million with half the league knowing that the other half missed out.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sam Burns ($12,100)
Middle Range: Doug Ghim ($9,700)
Lower Range: Matti Schmid ($7,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Sam Burns - Thomas broke my streak just as it was about to hit double digits. That stings, but there's still time to hit 10 this season and it starts this week with what is a layup. I'm not afraid to jinx it. Burns is not missing the cut here.

Previous Results