Weekly PGA Preview: Valero Texas Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio Oaks Course
San Antonio, TX

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for another edition of the long-running Valero Texas Open.

Before we get to that, some words on the state of the game, and by the state of the game I mean Scottie Scheffler. After Scheffler missed a five-foot putt to get into a playoff with eventual winner Stephan Jaeger, I tweeted that things might have just changed once again. I was referring to the inevitability of Scheffler dominating the PGA Tour, which most people were in agreement was happening prior to this past week. I brought it up because I was one of those people who thought that if Scheffler could make putts, it would be hard for anyone to beat him, and I'm not just talking every four starts, I'm talking every single time he teed it up. A funny thing happened this past week though, that putter was no longer magic and there were also cracks in the rest of his game. Honestly, I hadn't seen Scheffler play as poorly as he did on Sunday in quite a while...and he still almost won. The fact that he almost won, however, had more to do with the competition than anything else. As I watched the action this weekend, it felt like what I'd imagine an Angels fan feels like watching Mike Trout bat, then watching eight dudes do their best, all the while just thinking about the next time Trout gets another shot. I'm not sure the failure Sunday has an effect on Scheffler next week at Augusta, but one thing is clear, he'll have to be at his best to win there, he's not going to be one-stroke away from a playoff if he plays like he did this past week. Have things really changed? We'll find out soon enough.      

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Corey Conners shot a final round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Sam Stevens.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (9-1)  

McIlroy has not been himself this year, and the fact that he's the favorite is based solely on his name. McIlroy has only played this event twice, so there's certainly no adoration of the course on his part, but he did manage a runner-up in 2013. He missed the cut in his most recent start, however, in 2022. McIlroy will certainly want to get his game into shape prior to next week and that's the problem for this event. He'll be one of a few players in the field peaking ahead to next week and as such, I don't like his prospects here.                                                    

Ludvig Aberg (12-1)

Aberg entered his first season on the PGA Tour with a lot of hype and to this point he's lived up to it. With that said, I'm still a little surprised that he's the second favorite by quite a bit over the nearest competitor. I think it's a sign that the best players in the world largely haven't shown up this year more than anything else, but the fact remains that Aberg has played well this season and the guys behind him, for the most part have not. I'm not sold on him at this number however, I'd like to get a little more value.                                                                                            

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

It goes without saying that this pick is not based on form. Spieth has not played well since the beginning of February, but this is Texas and Spieth usually shows up in Texas. Spieth won this event in 2021 and finished runner-up in 2015. He's made the cut in six of seven starts here, so he obviously has a feel for this course. He'd definitely have to find something in his game that hasn't been there for the past two months if he were to win this week, but it's not like we haven't seen that before. Spieth can turn it on out of nowhere and this might be one of those weeks.                                         

THE NEXT TIER

Hideki Matsuyama (22-1)

Matsuyama is one of the better players in the world that has actually played well this season. Matsuyama won the Genesis Invitational in February and finished T6 at the PLAYERS in his most recent start. His track record here is okay, but his best showing was just a T15 this past year. There is enough value here to make a win bet.                                  

Corey Conners (25-1)

Conners' form hasn't been great this season, but it hasn't been poor either. He hasn't missed a cut since the U.S. Open, but he also hasn't had a top-10 since last summer. His two most recent starts have resulted in top-20s at Signature Events, so I think he's getting close and perhaps a return to San Antonio is what he needs to get over the top. Conners has won this event twice and he's yet to miss a cut here in five tries.                                              

Alex Noren (33-1)   

Is this the end of the run or does Noren have at least one more good start in him? Noren has posted three consecutive top-20s on the PGA Tour, one of which came at the PLAYERS, so he's definitely in good form. He's only played this event once, but that resulted in a top-15 this past year. The problem with Noren is that he hasn't won on the PGA Tour, though he's come close several times. With that said, there's a first time for everything and if he keeps giving himself chances, he should win at some point.                                                                                 

LONG SHOTS

Akshay Bhatia (65-1)  

Bhatia has been the ultimate hit or miss guy this season. He's missed the cut in 4/9 starts this year, but in those events where he's made the cut, he's finished inside the top-20 in every one of them. Bhatia has made the cut and the top-20 in his two most recent events, so he comes in with some momentum. Can he pull off a win? Well, it's a longshot, but that's why you're getting 65-1 on him. 

Charley Hoffman (150-1)   

Hoffman is no longer a guy that's going to show up every week, but every once in a while, he's going to pop and when he does, he's a threat to win. He popped in Phoenix at the beginning of February where he finished runner-up, but he hasn't done much since. The reason he could pop is his track record at this event. Hoffman won this event in 2016 and he's finished top-3 in four of his 10 starts here since 2013.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Corey Conners - McIlroy is not an option, and while Matsuyama is bound to get some looks, I think Conners will be the most popular play. He's been playing well this year, but he's just been unable to find that extra gear. If he is to find it however, it would be in San Antonio, where he's had a lot of success.                                                                    

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - I'm sure there are plenty of OAD players that have yet to use Matsuyama and for those owners, this would be good place to deploy him. Then again, there are probably some owners that are holding him for next week, where his track record is among the best in the field. I honestly can't argue with either play.                                                        

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Charley Hoffman - There are seemingly a lot of strong options, so this would definitely be a risky play, but if you're to use Hoffman anywhere this season, it would be here. As I mentioned earlier, there are a lot of big names in the field, but a lot will have one eye looking ahead to Augusta, so I could see a long shot winning.                                    

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - If you've read this article over the years, you know that I don't shy away from fading big names and this week is no exception. McIlroy has so much riding on the line next week at the Masters that I can't imagine this will be anything more than a tune-up. Heck, he'll probably be using this event to try some shots that he might be seeing next, that's how much winning the Masters means to him. Oh, and his form isn't the best right now, so I don't see a strong showing. 

This Week: Corey Conners - I really wanted to use Matsuyama in this spot, but if he continues to play as well as he's played to this point, he's too valuable to use outside a major or signature event. With that in mind, Conners seems like not only the safe play, but one that has as much upside as anyone else in the field. Conners hasn't played his best this season, but he's close and getting back to this spot should help him find that next gear.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,400)
Middle Range: Akshay Bhatia ($9,800)
Lower Range: Charley Hoffman ($8,300)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Corey Conners - Okay, we're back in the win column and it's time to take what should be a free pass to next week. Conners not only hasn't missed a cut here, but he hasn't finished outside the top-35 in his five starts. And as mentioned earlier, he hasn't missed a cut on the PGA Tour since last summer.     

Previous Results