Weekly PGA Preview: Sony Open in Hawaii

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae CC
Honolulu, HI

The PGA Tour heads to Honolulu for another edition of the Sony Open in Hawaii. 

We had quite the start to the season, as the best players in the world tore up the Plantation Course at Kapalua. That's not all that out of the ordinary however as when the wind does not blow, that course is ripe for the picking. It shouldn't be quite as easy this week at the Sony, but there have been years when scoring was really low. This is the first full field event of the year and for many fantasy players, it's the start of the season. While this past week we had tons of firepower at the top of the field, this week we have some big names, but there's definitely a drop off after the top handful of guys. What we have this week is a bunch of tier-two guys, though some of which are on the cusp of tier-one status, like Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg and Tyrrell Hatton. We also have a lot of course history as this event has been played at Waialae CC since 1965. For those that played this past week, we've got a decent read on current form, but for most in the field, it's a bit of a crapshoot on how these guys will come out of the gates. If it's anything like this past week, most of the top players will hit the ground running.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:00 AM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Si Woo Kim shot a final-round 64 on his way to one-stroke victory over Hayden Buckley.

FAVORITES

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

It didn't take Aberg long to become a favorite on the PGA Tour event as he was atop of the odds list a number of different times this past fall, but this is the regular season, with plenty of capable golfers. To be a favorite this early in his career is quite impressive. This will be Aberg's first start at this event, but that will be the case at almost every stop this year and that was the case in the fall and that didn't seem to hinder him in any way. Aberg got off to a slow start this past week, but he closed with a 63, which could be a sign that he's going to start fast this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick / Tyrrell Hatton (18-1)

I don't squeeze four players into this category very often, but these guys are in exactly the same boat this week and I would treat them as nearly identical. Neither guy has played since event before, so they'll be at a bit of a disadvantage, but both played this past week, so they've got that going for them. Oddly enough, they both finished T14 at the Sentry, so some solid golf, but not great play heading into this week. Neither of these guys provide much value at this price.

Russell Henley (22-1)

It was a bit curious that Henley opened at 18-1, so it's not a surprise that he has dropped here already. When I saw that Henley was listed as the second favorite this week, I thought I was going to see an immaculate track record at this event and while it is good, it's not outstanding by any means. He did finish runner-up in 2022, but that's one of only two top-10s here in 11 starts. Henley might play well this week, but there's no value at his current price.

THE NEXT TIER

Corey Conners (25-1)

Though we have a lot of course history in play this week, there aren't many guys that have great track records here. While Conners' track record isn't great, it's pretty good. Conners has made the cut in all five starts here and has finished worse than 12th just once. The problem is the lack of high-end finishes. Conners played this past week, which should help him this week, even if he wasn't that great at the Sentry.

Chris Kirk (25-1)

I'm generally not a fan of taking the winner from the previous week, but Kirk has always been a streaky golfer and we all saw how well he played this past week, so why not give him another shot? Kirk's track record is all over the place, but he does have three top-3s in 13 starts here, so he has shown the ability to go really low here.

Sahith Theegala (33-1)

Theegala looks poised to take another step forward in his career this season and if this past week is any indication, he's going to waste no time in doing so. Theegala shot a final-round 63 at the Sentry and fell just one stroke short of tying the winner, Chris Kirk. The only downside to Theegala this week is his track record here, which shows just one start and a T48 finish. That was two years ago however and he's clearly a better player now.

LONG SHOTS

Akshay Bhatia (60-1)

Bhatia got off to a good start this past week at the Sentry as he was in the lead for a bit before posting a final-round 71 which took him out of contention. This should be a g big year for Bhatia in his progression however and we should see his name on the leaderboard more often in the near future, including this week. This will be Bhatia's first start here, which is not great, but he had no experience at Waialae this past week and that didn't hinder him in any way.

Hayden Buckley (200-1)

Buckley got off to a great start this past season, which included a runner-up at this event, but a rib injury slowed his progress and sidelined him late in the summer. He was able to get back to the tour in the fall, but he didn't accomplish much, which is probably why he opened at 125-1 and has already dropped way off. If you go this route, at least last year's runner-up doesn't appear to be a fluke as Buckley finished T12 in his first start here in 2022.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Chris Kirk - During any given week on the PGA Tour, there are generally a few guys that seem to have everything going for them, including good form and a strong track record, but this week there aren't many, if any that fall into that category, so my assumption is that most OAD players will lean on form or track record. In Kirk's case, form is the driver, with a splash of track record, and I can't argue with this pick.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sahith Theegala - Theegala was great this past week, but he couldn't get past Kirk. This week it seems like Kirk has the slight edge again, but that might drive ownership up on Kirk, which would provide an opportunity to take Theegala in this spot and maybe gain some ground on the field.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Akshay Bhatia - Bhatia surely grabbed some attention from OAD players this past week at the Sentry, but that doesn't mean he'll be super popular this week. With that in mind, Bhatia appears to have some high upside and this field might be one of the weaker ones he sees this year, so this might be a good time to use him.

Buyer Beware: Russell Henley - As you probably gathered already, I'm not super high on Henley this week and maybe it's more to do with him being among the favorites, but I just don't see why he should have much support this week. Sure, the field isn't that strong, but this isn't one of those spots where Henley has a great track record. There will be much better spots to use Henley later this year.

This Week: Sahith Theegala - This pick comes down to Theegala and Kirk, and while Kirk would seem to have a slight edge on the surface, when you factor in the unlikelihood of winning in consecutive weeks and the fact that he'll probably be a more popular pick in the OAD format, Theegala then gets the nod. I might regret using Theegala this early if he's going to be as good as I think he is this season, but he's playing well right now, so I'm going to use him here and deal with the consequences later.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Ludvig Aberg ($12,000)
Middle Range: Sahith Theegala ($10,300)
Lower Range: Adrien Dumont de Chassart ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Chris Kirk - A little risky taking the guy who won this past week, but Kirk's had a lot of success recently and he's handled it well, so I'm not concerned with a hangover here. Though he has missed a handful of cuts here, for the most part, he's been pretty reliable at the Sony.