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2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Under protest
Travelers concluded seven straight weeks of having the lead late on a Sunday and ultimately losing our outright. Seven straight since we took home THE CJ CUP title with 100-1 winner Taylor Pendrith. Along this recent run there have been some bad beats, but Sunday would have made Stanford Steve fall out of his chair in his home state. The picture above displays the final round pairings. Our two outrights and the best player on the planet. The odds were not in our favor, but little did we know the golf gods would be against us as well. On the seventy-second hole, protestors stormed the eighteenth green at TPC River Highlands.
Now that could have been the beat. Protestors disrupt play, shake up Tom Kim, and he misses the tying birdie putt. That's not what happened, he made that tournament tying putt. The bad beat starts after the scorecards are signed. Those protestors damaged the eighteenth green thus forcing the PGA TOUR to change hole locations. Why not move to another hole that wasn't damaged, rather continue play where moments earlier law enforcement officers tackled protestors into the playing surface. And as if trying to compete with Scottie Scheffler on a level playing field isn't hard enough, let's move the hole location we just BIRDIED!
Whether or not writing this diatribe is therapeutic is debatable, but in the end, we just have to move on. We won the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year with Rickie Fowler (+1400). I'm going to channel that positive energy into another great week and this time RTL will finish it off.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: 8 Mile
Detroit Golf Club has hosted the Rocket Mortgage Classic since the tournament started in 2019. This wonderful 36-hole facility in "suburban" Detroit sits just south of the infamous 8 Mile. DGC has two courses called the North and South. One hole on the South and 17 from the North come together to create the tournament routing. The par 72 layout at 7,370 yards plays just as short as TPC River Highlands last week. The additional par 5s only add to the low scoring as the average winning total is 23 under par. A traditional birdie-fest, the winners have been a balance of tourney favorites and young talented touring professionals.
One large reason for the scoring is the condition of the course. DGC has been soft over the years and this edition plans to be no different. Detroit has seen an inch of rain in the last week, and we expect more during the event. Predicted wind is under 15 mph and temperatures will be perfect for play. Average green size is around 5,100 sq/ft, so the targets are smaller than average, but the approach shots are not! The field of 156 will play 50% of their approach shots from under 150 yards. That's ten percent higher than the TOUR average.
An even greater difference is seen in the driving distance numbers. DGC has very little penalty for missing the fairway. Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Cameron Young have all had great success here. The field average is 13 yards longer than the PGA TOUR average. Players pound away off the tee at DGC and as a result length should be favored. The course routing starts on the North Course, grabs one hole from the South, and then uses the North to complete the routing.
- Front nine: North 8, N9, South 1, N2, N3, N4, N5, N6, N7
- Back nine: North 10, N11, N12, N13, N14, N15, N16, N17, N18
The scorecard displays four par 3s (average length 192 yards), 10 par 4s (average 428 yards), and four par 5s (average 580 yards). The par 5 number is stretched by the 635-yard fourth hole. Those 10 par 4s account for five holes under 425 yards and five more over 450! It's quite the polar set of 4s with four of them under 400 yards. The top 65 and ties survive the 36-hole cut and play for a purse of $9.2 million. First-place receives $1.65 million and 500 FedExCup points. Those may be more valuable than the cash as we only have six competitive weeks left to get inside the top 70 and the playoffs.
Twelve holes have a birdie rate over 15% while only five holes own a bogey rate over that value. It is a birdiefest in every sense. The average cutline is three under and four of the five winners have been in the mid 20s under par. Make sure everyone on your card can go low. We aren't worried about bogey avoidance this week. If your player is trying to save pars, he's getting lapped by the leaderboard. We nailed two long-shot leaders on the Travelers board. Akshay Bhatia (80-1) and Kim (50-1) both finished inside the top five. Let's fire up the PGA notebook again and this time not lose yourself on the final hole, but rather redeem this run with a well-deserved win.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Rocket man
Wild weeks like the Rocket Mortgage are not as difficult to handicap as many pundits would have you believe. Every course has specific characteristics. When scoring is the theme, there has to be a direct path to 25 under par. Believe it or not, that journey involves a one-way road. We had it nailed down last week at TPC River Highlands, and I see a similar route to success at DGC. Looking back through the five previous leaderboards, trends start to become quite clear. Not every guy we predict will perform to the level needed, but you better believe those players have the best chance of winning when they do.
In 2023, and similarly in the previous editions, each player in the top 10 gained at least two strokes on the field with their flatstick. There were 13 players in that top 10 a year ago and 10 of them gained at least 3.5 strokes. The five winners have averaged +5.8 strokes on the field putting in the year they won. That's over a stroke better than the second most influential category which is approach play. We'll get to that next. Those same five winners averaged 27 sub-par scores in their winning campaign. How do you get almost 30 birdies in one tournament?
This is the specific path I'm talking about. If we need 30 birdies, then the winning player needs 40+ birdie chances. Those are putts inside 25' from the hole. This implies great approach play to create that level of proximity to the hole. Fifty percent of approaches at DGC happen from 150 yards and in. That's 11% more than the TOUR average. A significant percentage happen from 100 yards or less. Four par 4s at DGC measure under 400 yards and there are four par 5s. The leaderboards are littered with great wedge players. Those men build birdie chances by knocking it close AND converting. Hence the heavy weight on putting performance.
Getting to wedge approach length (or closer) implies some serious length off the tee on a 7,300-yard course. Average driving distance for the field at Rocket Mortgage is 13 yards over the PGA TOUR average and driving accuracy is a little over the TOUR standard as well. Guess what, fairways are relatively wide and there's little or no penalty for missing them. These guys are going to wind up and let it rip. Case in point, Adam Hadwin lost three and a half strokes to the field OTT last year, shot 24 under par, and lost in a playoff to Fowler and Morikawa. Hadwin did gain 10 shots on the greens!
There's that putter theme again. Driver everywhere and wedge proximity. Convert as many putts as possible and that's a majority of your top 10 from the past five years at DGC. Measuring par 4 performance will help as those same five winners gained an average of nine strokes on those holes. When it comes to putting specifics, I was also researching who makes the most putts inside 15'. You must measure the skills needed to win. When you do, there's a list of players that pop. Find the path, then the players. Examine course history and you have a contender's list.
Finally, flush out the course horses who aren't showing any kind of form and you're ready to build an accurate outrights card. Or you can just read the names below.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Outright Winners
Taylor Pendrith (+1600)
Pendrith is currently twelfth in Presidents Cup points with a win on the PGA TOUR in May!
- Pendrith finished second in 2022 and fourteenth in 2023 at DGC.
- One of the longest players in the field, Taylor is ranked fifth in putting.
- Winner at TPC Craig Ranch, Pendrith has proven he can compete in birdiefests.
- If Pendrith wants on Mike Weir's International Team, he will need to continue contending all summer. He is currently twelfth on the points list.
S.H. Kim (+1600)
Kim is ranked third in the field for putting.
- Kim has gained over four strokes putting in four of his last six starts.
- SH also has a very good long iron game which helps him score on difficult par 3s; and par 5s.
- The last time he played a birdie-fest, he finished fourth at TPC Craig Ranch and has another fourth at the Shriners in Vegas.
- Kim is ranked inside the top 30 for par 4 scoring and scrambling. He's great with a wedge and ranked eleventh for BoB%
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