PGA Tour Stats Review: The Players Championship

The Players, men's golf's unofficial fifth major is this week. It was the sight and site of one of the greatest back nine runs in golf history last year with Rickie Fowler ending Mother's Day on top. He didn't get it done last Sunday on Mother's Day, and many have found TPC Sawgrass menacing. How do we dissect this week? Here's the answer.

Jordan Spieth - Spieth's situation is very, very odd. Last we saw him he made a 7 on No. 12 at Augusta National, then roared back and nearly won the Masters. He didn't, and it suddenly got lumped in with some of the greatest collapses in golf history. Then he went on #SB2K16, which I immediately tweeted was the greatest decision he could ever make. This is all in the midst of four weeks off, during which this happened:

"I'm not taking it very hard," he promised. "I've got ladies in grocery stores coming up there, putting their hand on me, going, 'Really praying for you. How are you doing?' I'm like, 'My dog didn't die. I'm doing OK. I'll survive. It happens.' Again, unfortunate timing. I laugh about it now -- I really do."

Does any of this matter? Does #SB2K16 matter? Will he really be OK down the stretch mentally? Sadly, there's no stat for that. Where there is a stat for, however, is his past history around TPC Sawgrass: 2015: missed cut (75-72). 2014: T4, though the noteworthy thing here is going 71-74 on the weekend, in that stretch where he couldn't close. What did he do right in 2014 that he didn't in 2015? In 2015 he hit just 44 percent of his greens, and ended up with a strokes gained-tee to green total of -2.322. That won't work on Pete Dye's masterpiece that puts a premium on positioning. In 2014 he hit 68.06 percent of his greens. In 2015 he only hit 64.29 percent of his fairways, in 2014 73.21 percent. It may not sound like a lot but that can be good enough around Sawgrass.

Adam Scott, Jason Day - Both have hinted they got a little lethargic around Augusta after hot spring stretches. Scott won this event in 2004, while Day's best finish is a T6 in 2011, surrounded by a couple missed cuts. Inconsistency reigns, in other words. What to look for with them? Proximity to the hole. It is such a key stat at the Stadium Course -- yes you have to hit it in the fairway, yes you need to hit greens, but you must end up on the right sides of slopes. Day ranks 195th in that category this season (the Match Play doesn't count in those rankings, FYI) while Scott ranks sixth at 34-feet, 2-inches. Between these two I like Scott better.

Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson - Last week at Quail Hollow they got the disease of poor finishes to rounds. Mickelson just had a brutal time up the 18th, taking a quad on Saturday that knocked him out of any serious run at the title. McIlroy, meanwhile, went double-bogey-par-bogey for the week there. Mickelson, of course, won the Players in 2007 while McIlroy is looking to add it to his resume. They have to finish better -- especially Mickelson who was had trouble keeping mental focus for the full 18 holes all year. His back-nine scoring average is 36th after ranking 126th last year -- an improvement, but not quite there. I take Rory over Phil in this matchup.

Rickie Fowler - Oh yeah, that guy named Rickie. Fowler, of course, got his breakthrough win here last year (6-under over his last eight, and all those birdies on 17 will help your mojo and confidence) but had a really frustrating finish at Quail Hollow last week that included a shot hit out of bounds at the reachable and getable par-5 7th. The winning combination last year had him second in strokes gained-tee to green and 20th in strokes gained-putting. At Wells Fargo in the final round, however, he was -1.775 in the tee-to-green stat and only hit nine greens, down from his season average of 71.23 percent, which has him fifth on tour. That would explain the early week work with Butch Harmon and, especially for daily fantasy players, is something to watch as the week goes on. I still like him this week, though.

Jason Gore - Who is the next Vaughn Taylor? We've had a run of winners this year -- started by Taylor at Pebble but also include Jim Herman, Brian Stuard and James Hahn -- who are not quite the household names that were winning in the Southern Swing, for example, when Day and Scott kept getting Ws. Who could be that this week? Well, it's a long shot, but how about the guy who is No. 1 in proximity to the hole, the aforementioned stat that is so important this week? That's Jason Gore. The finishes won't put him onto your radar -- he has zero top-10s and only two top-25s in 15 starts -- and he hasn't played in this event since 2007 when he tied for 23rd (he withdrew in 2008), but heck, we just saw Hahn win after missing eight straight cuts and he's someone the always raucous crowds can get behind. And with a proximity to the hole distance of 33-feet, 3-inches and a ranking of 54th in greens in regulation, maybe this will be his week.

Danny Willett - People aren't talking about him, which is mainly because he's been at home since the Masters with his new baby, and the fact that the 2016 Masters is the one Jordan Spieth lost instead of the one Danny won. As for this week, Willett's only previous Players appearance was last year when he shot 72-74 to miss the cut, hitting only 47.22 percent of his greens and having a strokes gained-putting mark of -0.565. Rusty, and without a lot of experience on this track, which you need on a Pete Dye layout, I wouldn't pick Willett this week. Besides, the GolfChannel.com headline about his recent days says "Willett: Lots of drinking, little golf post-Masters." Not what a fantasy player wants to see.

My Sleeper: Paul Casey - On my radio show this week I tried to figure out a nice sleeper, someone who has cropped up on leaderboards lately but hasn't broken through (coincidentally that's how I came to Danny Willett for Augusta). The name I ended up with: Casey. Casey hasn't won on the PGA Tour since the 2009 Shell Houston Open but he desperately wants to make the UK Olympic team and has three top-10s in 11 starts this year, including a tie for fourth at the Masters. Ranking 18th in strokes gained-tee to green and 20th in greens in regulation, if he can improve on his 108th place strokes gained-putting statistic, I think he has a real viable shot to win this week.