Cadillac Championship Betting Preview

Following the team event we begin an exciting three-week stretch that features back-to-back Signature Events and the PGA Championship.

First up is the Cadillac Championship, with the PGA Tour returning to Trump National Doral for the first time since 2016. The 72-player field is missing some key names with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Robert MacIntyre and Patrick Cantlay electing to skip this event.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is on hand, and he headlines the no-cut event as the tournament favorite at +315 odds.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday.

Doral Details

A par-72 at over 7,700 yards, Doral is right alongside Torrey Pines South when it comes to the longest venues players will visit this year. "The Blue Monster" moniker is there for a reason -- water is in play on 14 holes and will test golfers both off the tee and on approach. The par-5s average a whopping 611 yards and will be tough to take advantage of.

While it has been a decade since the PGA Tour visited, the winning scores from 2014-2016 averaged out to 8-under-par, and Marc Leishman won the LIV event here last year -- just 54 holes of course -- at 6-under. This will be a difficult test even if the weather forecast looks favorable. 

Although we don't have the typical course history or strokes gained data to draw from, the last two PGA champions -- Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson -- both led the field in SG: Approach, and longer hitters dotted the top of the leaderboards. The fairways are tight with thick rough, so a combination of length and accuracy will give you a leg up. Add it all up and I will be targeting players who excel at long approaches and can capitalize on the lengthy par-5s and par-3s.

Trending off the Tee

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee across their last 20 rounds.

• Cameron Young: 1.04
• Austin Smotherman: 0.70
• Min Woo Lee: 0.65
• Jordan Smith: 0.65
• Si Woo Kim: 0.63

Young tops the list by a significant margin, and that's noteworthy given how important the driver is at The Blue Monster. Now inside the top 5 of the OWGR, Young has an elite combination of length and accuracy, ranking top-25 in both driving distance - all drives and driving accuracy. That has helped him pick up a win and three other top-10s across his last five starts. He's the clear second choice on the board.

Further down the list is Smith, who check in at 86-1. While a win is unlikely, his driving skills make him someone to keep an eye on. The PGA Tour rookie ranks top-30 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach and notably finished two back of Matt Fitzpatrick at the Valspar, another difficult -- albeit shorter -- Florida venue.

Cadillac Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Russell Henley (26-1)

Henley led the field in SG: Approach at The Masters en route to a T3 finish and then posted a modest T25 at Harbour Town. He won at Bay Hill last year, so we know he can win on a Florida track that is tough, long and heavy on water hazards. Some may fade him due to his lack of distance, but he's extremely accurate and should be able to avoid mistakes.

Nicolai Hojgaard (41-1)

The long game will be key this week, and Hojgaard ranks 44th off the tee and 16th on approach. For someone with his length, he's not that wild off the tee, either. Hojgaard has two top-5s this year and was in position to win in Houston. So often we see guys get it done the next time they're in contention, plus I think he fits the course well.

Sam Stevens (76-1)

Stevens reminds me of Jacob Bridgeman before he won at Riviera. He's a dark horse who is quietly having a good year with a couple top-10s and a top-25 in his first Masters. Stevens gets overlooked because he doesn't have an elite skill, but he doesn't have a weakness, and Doral is going to test every aspect of the game.

Cadillac Championship Bets: Other Wagers

Daniel Berger
Top-10 Finish: +465

Berger stands out with his ball striking, ranking top-10 in SG: Approach and GIR. He's also 34th in driving accuracy. We saw his ceiling last month when he lost in a playoff at a Signature Event, and the lifelong Florida native has a great track record in the Sunshine State. 

Akshay Bhatia
Top-5 Finish: +750

Bhatia was the guy who beat Berger at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and since then he posted top-20s at THE PLAYERS and at Harbour Town. The 24-year-old's strength of iron play and putting will work just about anywhere, and his success in Florida is an added bonus.

Corey Conners
Top-5 Finish: +1100

Conners is my long-shot target, and it's surprising to see his stock falling so much. After all, this is a golfer gaining 0.71 strokes per round off the tee and on approach combined, and he's second in driving accuracy. Both of his top-15s this year came in Florida.

Cadillac Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Hideki Matsuyama (-120) over Sam Burns

I'll side with the steadier player and that's Matsuyama, who is more accurate and far superior with his irons and around the greens. Although there is no cut this week, Matsuyama has not missed one this season while Burns has missed three. Burns has relied heavily on the putter this year, gaining over a stroke per round in four of his last seven tournaments. However, he hasn't been able to record a top-5. He's losing strokes from tee to green on the year and could get into some trouble with the driver.

Viktor Hovland (-116) over Jake Knapp

There was a report that Knapp hurt his wrist during a practice round Monday, so that's something to monitor. Even if he's fully healthy, he bested only six players in his last start at Harbour Town, and his most recent Florida showing was a missed cut at TPC Sawgrass. Known for his deficiencies around the greens, Hovland ranks 31st in the category this year, and he has been steady with top-20s in half of his starts.

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