This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Indianapolis Colts 
(+2.5) (-110) at Arizona Cardinals
Yet another big effort from Jonathan Taylor last week, rushing for 170 yards as the Colts beat the red-hot Patriots in a game they led throughout. That marked the fifth time in six games that Taylor went over 100 yards rushing, with the Colts winning all five of them. Also, be aware, the Colts have played very well on the road recently, outscoring their opponents 102-33 over their last three road games (with two of those wins coming at Buffalo and San Francisco). Clearly, the Colts have been performing at a high level, whereas the Cardinals come into this game having played very poorly of late, allowing 30+ points to each of their last two opponents (including the lowly Lions). Also worth noting is Kyler Murray's lack of ball security of late, having thrown five interceptions over his last four games (including four interceptions over his last two home games), while the Colts defense ranks third in the league in interceptions with 17 on the year. There's a good chance the Colts can disrupt the Cardinal's offense this week, and force Murray into some mistakes. This line actually opened a bit lower, and has moved in the Cardinals direction, likely because the Colts will be missing a few offensive linemen this week. While that obviously must be considered, the Cardinals defense allows 4.6 yards per carry (tied for 5th-worst in the league), so this is a decent matchup for Taylor, even with his line operating at less than full capacity. Worth mentioning, the Colts can complete a nice Christmas Day teaser, boosting the Colts line up to +8.5 while taking the Packers' line down to -1 vs. the Browns at Lambeau Field.
New England Patriots 
(-2.0) (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots went into last week's game vs. the Colts as arguably the hottest team in the league, having won 7 games in a row (including a 14-10 win over the Bills a few weeks ago). They have also been performing extremely well at home, outscoring their opponents 135-33 over their last three games in Foxboro. Meanwhile, the Bills come in having lost three of their last five games, and haven't looked right all year. The Patriots (much like the Colts above) have had an extra day to prepare for this matchup, coming off the Saturday game last week. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has of course performed quite well in these spots over the years, as well as having fared extremely well vs. the Bills in most spots. Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson will be out this week, but they still have their original starter Damien Harris lined up for this game, so they should be okay in that respect. While it's possible the Bills may finally be on an uptick following their sharp overtime loss at Tampa and a facile win over Carolina last week, the Patriots hold a clear edge in this matchup, and are laying a pretty skimpy price. I like the Patriots laying less than the field goal at home.
Player Props
Jalen Hurts over 49.5 rushing yards (-125)
Eagles starting RB Miles Sanders hasn't practiced this week but has no injury designation, so it's anyone's guess as to how much he plays this week. Meanwhile, Hurts has covered this number in six out of his last seven games, including an 8-77 showing vs. the Giants in New York a couple of weeks ago. Overall, the Giants have allowed the 7th-most rushing yards in the league, while the Eagles offense leads the league in rushing, with Hurts being a big part of that (his carry totals have actually decreased to 8 per game over his last pair, whereas he recorded double-digit carries in the three games prior). There's a decent chance he sees an uptick this week with Sanders' status up in the air.
